Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

I'm trying to improve my overall play in Low M situations where I am not first into the pot.

Here we've just recently reached the final 2 tables. No read at all on UTG. What's your play here and why? Thanks.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t12000 with t600 antes (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t35275)
Hero (t70240)
MP1 (t341734)
MP2 (t159825)
MP3 (t146340)
CO (t170466)
Button (t138532)
SB (t193952)
BB (t252822)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises to t34675 (All-in)</font>

Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

Well, first off, the play is definitely not 'call'. Just to get that out of the way first. So, the choice is between pushing and folding. Let's look at the numbers:

If you fold, there will be about 58K in the pot, and will cost someone 35K to call. The BB can play for 23K. With his stack, he will probably call that blind getting 2.5 to 1. However, that doesn't really concern you since you're out of the hand.

If you push, there will be about 128,000 in the pot, and it will cost 70K for someone to call. The BB can call for 58K. Here, the BB still is getting over 2 to 1 on his money, but it costs him 25% of his stack to play.

I think we can reasonably say that the BB, MP1, and perhaps the SB are the only stacks who you have to worry about calling you on pot odds alone. The rest are too short to risk that much of their stack on such a call. You'd like to play this hand against UTG all by himself. He's desperate and about to go through the blinds, so you can discount his holding quite a bit. You are only really in trouble against 99+, and AT+, and his range is much wider than that. So you really just need to ask yourself two questions....

One, how likely is it that one of the bigger stacks will call, risking between 20 and 25% of their stacks?

Two, how do I feel about folding a suited Ace here and losing 20400 more chips in the next 3 hands?

I think your stack size ends up being the most compelling issue here. Your position blows having to push through all those bigger stacks, but you're going to be a lot more vulnerable than you are now in just a few hands. So I say push it in there and hope for the best. It would be great if you had another 30K or so just to really dissuade pot odds calls from the bigger stacks, but oh well. Folding will have you at just 49800 chips in 3 hands, giving you even less fold equity than you have now.

I'm happy to hear other opinions on this, but I think I push.

--TFGoose

Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

Yuuuuck. Seeing as we have just under 6 BB's here and this guys range is any 2 i'm gonna shove, and hate doing it.

Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

TF, thanks for the thought provoking reply.

Yuuuuuck is right Bond. When I first saw the hand I was elated that I'd have a hand to go to battle with, thinking I'd open push. The UTG's shove startled me and without giving it enough thought (multi tabling of course) I folded and regretted it the second I did so.

In general I don't like being the 2nd or 3rd guy in with a not-great holding but I'm beginning to question if I shouldn't gambool a bit more with marginal holdings in the late game, hoping to strike gold once in a while.

More hands from this event to follow - still want as much overall late game 2nd or 3rd guy in the pot feedback as possible guys, thanks.

Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

Wow, I don't hate shoving this one bit. I'm stoked to get my chips in there.

Re: Opinions Needed: Late Game Help
 

Same event down to 15 players. Do you fold and wait for a better spot or is calling and gambling in a multi way pot the right action?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20000 with t1000 antes (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t536904)
UTG+1 (t40303)
MP1 (t98692)
MP2 (t92532)
CO (t437216)
Button (t266947)
Hero (t56240)
BB (t442334)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t39303 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises to t91532 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>