Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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He flat-called from the blind/you are often behind

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Cute - but can you say you are narrowing his range to a set or 10-10+? If so, lol.

I would rather see myself in a situation deciding whether or not to fire on the turn after getting called on the flop than this. That is a much easier decision to make imo.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

perfect as played assuming u check riv behind...

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.72-0.1*47.5 = $38.95

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the marginal(ish) using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis. Picking the figures more logically would be useful. Any thoughts?

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.8-0.1*47.5 = $42.75

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the same using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis espcially as I didn't pick the numbers specifically to make them turn out equal. Any thoughts?

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2 things - he has a ten more than 10% of the time AND you aren't taking into account that when he bets half pot as you said, he is getting repopped MORE than the percent of times his opponent has a 10. This might sound counter intuitive, but I have seen stupid [censored] like this before when some idiot thinks its going to be a split.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

If he bets here he's gonna get paid off, assuming he has the ten, so there's no need to check as most of the time he's just passing up value on his hand. This is why I think there's a slim chance of him having a ten.

The model assumes that when he repopps he's always got it and we fold - which happens ten percent of the time. I can see that this is a rediculous assumption as sometimes he'll repop with fa.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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Sorry but this is completely wrong. This is one of the worst flops imaginable in terms of hitting a cold-callers range.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

I don't see any reason to bet that flop. I'd much rather check it and call a lot of turn bets.

River, bleh, I just check. I have such bad luck trying to push guys off a chop, and this doesn't seem like a great spot for it. If he's thinking at all, this is a hard spot to represent a T.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

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Wow, why do so many people check behind on this flop? He misses it so much here it isn't funny. Even when he doesn't miss it completely, you might still be ahead.

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He flat-called from the blind/you are often behind

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Cute - but can you say you are narrowing his range to a set or 10-10+? If so, lol.

I would rather see myself in a situation deciding whether or not to fire on the turn after getting called on the flop than this. That is a much easier decision to make imo.

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Tonnes of suited connectors (that made 2 pair hands, or a pair and draw), 9T, 8T, pair+fd.

I like the way the hand was played.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

check the flop cuz you have value but not enough to bet. you do have enough to call a turn bet especially with your straight outs.

Re: Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo
 

Played perfect if u checked behind for all the reaons above.