flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

Piejay is a unique player. He plays around 75/50ish HU, raising nearly all hands on the button and reraising around 8-10% of hands from the bb. He also has the unique characteristic of getting increasily more aggressive per street, with a turn agg factor in the mid-3s and a river agg factor approaching the mid 4s. This is contrasted with a flop agg factor of 1. He routinely peels flop with any pair, any ace high, any draw (including gutters). He also will check call with big hands (enabling him to "come alive" on later streets) He also tends to bluff in random spots.

Earlier on in the match, we had played a hand where I raised QJo on the btn, flop was AJ7r, chk chk, turn 9 badugi, he checked, I bet 300, he CRed full pot to 1200, and I called. River brick, chk chk q8o no good.

Onto the hand in question.


Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (2 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($8706.75)
Hero ($10111.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $150</font>, BB calls $100.

Flop: ($300) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $250</font>, BB calls $250.

Turn: ($800) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $700</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2500</font>,

HERO???


What do people think about betting this turn in the first place. Because the board is drawy and both draws missed, he is calling with any pair really depending on mood.

I have been double barreling a fair amount and he probably views me as a solid but predictable player.

What do people think of this turn action.

I could see arguments for 1) checking turn behind 2) calling his raise 3) shoving 4) folding.

He certainly is capable of bluff raising here, and I'm not sure what he's capable of laying down.

FWIW I think his turn CRing range is fairly wide here, especially if he thinks I'm on a draw.

Advice appreciated,
dlpnyc21

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

calllllll callc alcl acllcal

edit: that said, I dno what to do on total river blanks, or A/Q and he shoves. given that his AF goes up I probably call when I pair up...does that mean you should just shove turn?

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

he wont fold anything to a turn shove you should call turn. Im not sure how I feel about betting it here but betting the teh QJ hand seems kinda gross especially since you almost always have him call river bets with worse or get to call his dumb riv bluffs.

Its hard to tell if you should bet the turn in the hand you posted because my matches (I used to play him a lot months ago) go a lot differently then your I would bet since it seems you bet way more turns in position. Betting is probably fine this deep but I dont think I would shove.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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calllllll callc alcl acllcal

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am I calling only to hit? Do you think he will ever c/f if diamonds or spades hits? what do you think his range is here?

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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you don't think he's ever cring a combo draw here? what about the QJ hand? I think I could also be ahead sometimes if he has q10dd or something like that, gutty+diamonds.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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so do you bet turn? and if you are raised, like I was, you are folding, correct?

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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calllllll callc alcl acllcal

edit: that said, I dno what to do on total river blanks, or A/Q and he shoves. given that his AF goes up I probably call when I pair up...does that mean you should just shove turn?

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not a fan of any of this logic

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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This is an easy fold vs piejay and only piejay imo (not saying i wouldnt fold it to others, but vs him I think its much much easier fold)

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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This is an easy fold vs piejay and only piejay imo (not saying i wouldnt fold it to others, but vs him I think its much much easier fold)

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so are u betting this turn?

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

against this type of player I'd check the turn.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

I would check turn against a lot of people, and with your description of player it seems like betting the turn here is not good at all, I mean your description of him almost screams check the turn. As played, I fold, because I don't think the price is good enough to draw to a flush and i don't want to stack off on an A or Q. Also, I don't think there is any reason to believe that shoving is a good play.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

what kind of player is piejay? im curious

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

btw david, I can't for the life of me understand making HU reads like that based on stats... surely its more situational than just AF numbers.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

i'm 100% checking this turn

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

i have played piejay a ton hu at 25/50 on UB. playing him definitely will make you a better hu player because he plays so unorthodox.

On the turn, against him, i would never bet. well almost never, but definitely not here with these stacks. As played, i would call and probably call all pairing and spade rivers, but im not sure. If i remember right i think once he takes the lead he is pretty much going to be potting any river because thats just how he rolls.

id much rather check the turn, then call a pair or hit the flush because when you hit the running spades, you can rep a lot of missed diamonds and straight cards that piejay can talk himself into snapping you off with.

I'd never bluff this river as i mentioned above he loves to snap off a bet like that.

Also i dont know if the stats you gave are really high compared to other high stakes players (i dont use PAHud) but piejay is definitely one of the most aggressive players i have played hu at 25/50 or higher. What are like "normal" stats for hu players that arent too extreme?

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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btw david, I can't for the life of me understand making HU reads like that based on stats... surely its more situational than just AF numbers.

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i agree, my stats were merely to post that he's the kind of player who will chk/call flop with a much wider range than most hu opponents, meaning 1) he is more likely to peel super light and 2) he is also, paradoxically, more likely to chk-call with a big hand.

i think the problem i had in the hand is i couldn't really get a good feel for the estimation of his range. when i messed around with pokerstove my equity is actually pretty decent if i give him a wide range, i was just wondering if someone who has played a lot with him had a better idea of his range in these kinds of spots.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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i'm 100% checking this turn

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Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

Piejay is at least calling this turn bet 100%

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

The only way that I would ever bet this turn is if it was for value; since he is supposedly so likely to C/R bluff or semi-bluff in this spot, I can maybe see bet/calling here and looking to get paid on spades, Q or A, and possibly snapping off a continuation-bet if the board pairs. That being said, that's kind of a ridiculous move only to be made when you have a very solid grasp on the flow of the current HU game. Since it doesn't seem like you do at this point, I think that this should be a turn check 100% of the time..

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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what kind of player is piejay? im curious

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the kind who opens 95% of hands in the small blind in 6 max and doesn't fold to raise/3bets of any size

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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what kind of player is piejay? im curious

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the kind who opens 95% of hands in the small blind in 6 max and doesn't fold to raise/3bets of any size

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very accurate description, he opened 98% of hands on the btn in this match (which actually isn't that bad HU) miniraising many of them.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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The only way that I would ever bet this turn is if it was for value; since he is supposedly so likely to C/R bluff or semi-bluff in this spot, I can maybe see bet/calling here and looking to get paid on spades, Q or A, and possibly snapping off a continuation-bet if the board pairs. That being said, that's kind of a ridiculous move only to be made when you have a very solid grasp on the flow of the current HU game. Since it doesn't seem like you do at this point, I think that this should be a turn check 100% of the time..

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fwiw he definitely folds turns after he peels flop a fair % of the time...i am double barreling here as a semi-bluff/bluff/value bet. It's a combo of all three because he certainly peels flop with gutters and will fold those to a second barrel more often then he will cr. if he called I was planning on repping diamonds, value betting any spade and also value betting any A or Q.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

I just played him and he limped a ton of buttons and even open folded a couple. As for the hand this is really ugly, I guess I'd fold but I think the turn bet is really standard against most players b/c ur rarely getting checkraised. Maybe he's different tho, not much experience v him

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

i've played him a ton. he peels the flop very light so i think this turn bet is mandatory, as stinger says this c/r is rare. he isn't a folder so i can't see the all in being good without a specific read during the hand. i think to call or fold is just a math questino and the answer is pretty close for a call.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

pretty sure i reluctantly fold. i woudl call sometimes though, and it's kinda hard to explain but it depends on the flow of the match, particularly if he is a little tilty, and considering the fact that piejay doesn't usually follow through on the river if he misses a draw in this spot. also, fwiw, there are ties i do call a little more lightly in situations like this against piejay because if you ever make a big hand vs him on some mediocreish suckout, he tilts like a maniac and it's worth giving up a little EV to get him off his game.

he's got a set, J9, or TQdd, TKdd, Jxss, or some 9Xdd, all with relatively equal frequency, imo. I don't really think he's folding any of his hands except for the occasional pure bluff, but that's like 5-10% of his range tops.

tc

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

isn't piejay kinda unique where his aggression ramps up remarkably from the flop to the river? most people tend to play flops/turns a lot more aggro then the river, but he tends to play the later streets much more aggro then the flop, albeit in my limited and most likely useless experience, so my initial reaction would be to call or stack off here, but much better players have disagreed so I'll defer to their judgement.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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This is an easy fold vs piejay and only piejay imo (not saying i wouldnt fold it to others, but vs him I think its much much easier fold)

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so are u betting this turn?

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Yes, im betting the turn almost always pretty much for every reason you stated earlier (he peels alot, calls flop a lot then folds turn). From my experience I dont think hes doing this with a combo draw mostly due to stack sizes. Any shove from you puts him in awkward spot and I dont think he even puts himself in this spot 200bb deep with a combo draw. I think this is J9 or a flopped set the majority of the time. Take it FWIW, I have played over 15k hands with Piejay so I have an ok idea of how he plays, but as someone said earlier hes very unpredictable.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

If you think he will bluff into you, when the 3rd spade folds, than call. I don´t like a shove here.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

[ QUOTE ]
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vs pie in this spot i think u truly have 9 outs tops.

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This is an easy fold vs piejay and only piejay imo (not saying i wouldnt fold it to others, but vs him I think its much much easier fold)

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so are u betting this turn?

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Yes, im betting the turn almost always pretty much for every reason you stated earlier (he peels alot, calls flop a lot then folds turn). From my experience I dont think hes doing this with a combo draw mostly due to stack sizes. Any shove from you puts him in awkward spot and I dont think he even puts himself in this spot 200bb deep with a combo draw. I think this is J9 or a flopped set the majority of the time. Take it FWIW, I have played over 15k hands with Piejay so I have an ok idea of how he plays, but as someone said earlier hes very unpredictable.

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thanks guys, lots of great responses. I think, while a lot of people said check the turn, I think it's probably something closer to like 70/30 bet/check. I think he folds turn a fair amount of the time and sometimes it's even a value bet. As far as what to do when CRrd, I think this specific player calls off often enough, and checks river on diamond rivers, for example, that calling might even be profitable (assuming he pays off, which he does too much, generally).

I think betting turn here is a more clear decision than whether or not to fold to his CR, which I'm still not sure about.

Seems like shoving is horrendous.

Thanks,
dlpnyc21

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

It was an easy check call on the turn (for a minimal bet, probably exactly what you bet in the first place 600-800$)

And then depending on the river.... = mystery hit or miss.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

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It was an easy check call on the turn (for a minimal bet, probably exactly what you bet in the first place 600-800$)

And then depending on the river.... = mystery hit or miss.

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huh? i was in position.

Re: flush draw v. piejay 25/50 HU
 

prolly check shove the turn if you dont feel like hes turning up air enough calling is also viable