NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

I butchered this every which way I could have. Villain is 23/18/7 over 120 hands. Hero's image is about 19/17/3 and tight UTG. The flop was a huge mistake. I don't know wtf I was thinking with the size of the flop bet with an overpair in a 3way pot. Should have been more like 11 or 12, but I was in two other big pots at the time and messed up.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $154.05
MP: $51.40
CO: $161.40
BTN: $116.90
SB: $97.50
BB: $93.50

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, SB folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, BTN calls $8, BB folds

Turn: ($28.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, BTN calls $16

River: ($60.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $67</font>, Hero thinks at this point that his bet looked like a scared blocking bet (which it was), and the aggressive villian decided to bluff the scare card.

Given button's aggression, hero is wondering what J would be in his range, given that hero raised UTG. There's a busted FD out. I would have hear from 88/22/33 before the river. And if villain had the J, what is he putting Hero on that he will think he would get a $50 river call. Easy fold here?

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

Wow, you are harder on yourself than I am on myself. You played it fine. $10 might be better on the flop especially with 3 opponents. Maybe $20 on the turn. River was a bit wimpy. You can b/f here but bet at least $40. No matter how you played it, I think you have to fold the river. JT/QJ/sets are much more likely than air.

SMS

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

The only time you would want to lead this weak on the river, imo, is when you are trying to induce a push/big raise. If calling a push/big raise is something you don't want to do, then a check is much better here I think. I think you need to be checking or at least making a real bet here to make your decision easier.

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

How is CC river to induce bluffs from missed draws? Only thing is you get no value from 99 or TT, but it's iffy they call after betting three streets.

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only time you would want to lead this weak on the river, imo, is when you are trying to induce a push/big raise. If calling a push/big raise is something you don't want to do, then a check is much better here I think. I think you need to be checking or at least making a real bet here to make your decision easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

As soon as I made the bet, I thought it should have been bigger so as not to induce a bluff and therefore a raise would be an easy fold. c/c a reasonable bet is also much better than the line I took. But once at this spot, what are the chances I have induced a bluff?

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

c/c the river is a lot better than b/f. every draw missed and a lot of his made hand range that he is calling with is beating you now anyway. And obv bet sizing wasn't good.

Edit: I probably fold the river unless you know hes really aggro.

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

bet sizing is off on every street
check river. call depending on size.

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

Bet the turn bigger imo.
c/c river is better than b/f and c/f is to weak I think vs this opponent.
He's range does include J's but also missed flush draws that could draw at a cheap prices wich he will be bluffing with on the river. so c/c imo

Re: NL 100: Butchered a hand. Am I a moron for considering this call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what are the chances I have induced a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of the point. There is no way for you to know this. So you have kind of put yourself in a bad spot - which you want to avoid by not making these kinds of bets.