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-   -   +EV to call here ? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=553385)

TheFoxNL 11-24-2007 07:17 AM

+EV to call here ?
 
Poker Stars, $1 + $0.10 NL Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 810
Hero (BB): 2,500
UTG: 1,550
UTG+1: 1,770
UTG+2: 2,600
MP1: 1,410
MP2: 1,380
CO: 1,360
BTN: 1,480

Pre-Flop: (30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises to 60</font>, 3 folds, BTN calls 60, SB folds, Hero calls 40

Flop: (190) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets 120</font>, BTN calls 120, Hero calls 120

Turn: (550) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+2 bets 500</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls ?



no reads
about 5th hand or so
so far villian saw AK and TT from me
im getting 2-1 right now but if i hit i can maybe get his stack
and maybe even bluff him off if a Club comes

youre thoughts ?

levAA 11-24-2007 08:14 AM

Re: +EV to call here ?
 
I don't like your preflop call very much - I think suited one gappers can sometimes be fine to play 100BB deep (effective 74BB) but if I do I want to have position.

With hands like that you are always playing for a strong draw and you perfectly hit it on the flop. Therefore you have to play more aggressive here. If UTG played a strong ace he completely missed the flop. Maybe he plays an overpair. I think checking with the intention to check/raise this flop is best.

As played the turn-bet is too big to call. You got 13 outs (at best)and you get 1:2 - it's also very unlikely you will get more money in the pot if you call and hit a 7,9 or 5. I also don't think you have much FE if you push, as he will not lay down an overpair or AQ.


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