Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Im playing 100nl on full tilt, but this question is more than appropriate for you newer guys and should get you thinking.

I'm brand new to the table, played like a few hands and folded them all. I pick up

T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP and open raise to $25.

$25??!?!?! ZOMG MISCLICKAMENTTSSSS [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Button, who I know nothing about but I have datamined at 14/10/2 over 56 hands, very quickly shoves for precisely $100.

So I'm sitting there with my misclicked T8s, having been shoved on...but wait, can I call?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Your kidding?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Hand 0: 21.014% 20.84% 00.18% 2140905 18024.00 { Ts8s }
Hand 1: 78.986% 78.81% 00.18% 8096871 18024.00 { AA }

.78986*(-75) + 0.21014(125) = -59.2395 + 26.2675 = -32.972


Adding hands doesn't change things much. You're roughly the same against QQ+.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

this line works better with AA ama

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

You've got to ask yourself a question: Do I feel lucky?

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9...yharry2nb3.jpg

Well, do ya punk?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Why do you think his range is that tight? Its a WHOLE lot looser than that.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

I dont think his tight, I think any pp 99 and above screws your math up to a point of no return.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think his tight, I think any pp 99 and above screws your math up to a point of no return.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the whole point of my post. Why does his range have to be that tight??

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Edited to refine range.

75 to win 125... against his range of 10%, I doubt you get odds, but this happens once in a while, and so the button could be opportunistic and be pushing MUCH wider than 10. I'd say that he'll play almost any ace (say A6up) due to likely showdown value, K9+, QT+, plus any pair.

Don't have pokerstove on the lappy, so I'll try to reason this out on my own... your cards are usually live, so the worst you are verse two unpaired cards is ~33%. 22-55 balances out JJ-AA, 66/77 give you about 45% each, against 88 you're something like 35%, against TT you're ~15%, and against 99 you're 33%. I'd say against the overall range, equity is ~37%?

So against range I specify you need ~1.7:1 which you're just missing (1.66:1 Pot Odds), so a call would be a slight mistake. If he plays a wider range with something like any A and any K, this becomes a call. You don't really indicate how many people fold, but it sound's like you're UTG so button has seen half the people fold which widens this range. I think there's a strong argument for a call.

Someone tell me if I'm way off. I actually misclicked half my stack PF the other day. Thank goodness everyone folded.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

It does not have to be stricktly 99+. But 99+ mixed up with unpaired overcards drops your equity to low thirties.