Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

hand 1

online 5handed 3/6 or 5/10. i forget.

i raise 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO, the mostly unknown but sort of loose(seeming) SB calls, BB folds.

Flop(5sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he calls.

Turn(3.5bb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he calls.

River(5.5bb): Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check, i bet, he checkraises, i fold?

hand two

online fullring 3/6 or 5/10. i forget.

no reads. first few orbits so i don't even have my overlay up yet.

UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, CO limps, i raise 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button, sb folds, bb calls, limpers call.

Flop(10.5sb): Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

checked to me and i check.

Turn(5.25bb): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 folds, CO folds, i raise, BB calls, UTG 3bets, i cap, BB calls, UTG calls.

River(17.25bb): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, UTG calls, i fold? closing the action getting 19-1.

my wife was sitting next to me for both of these hands. one she said she would fold and the other she said she would call. probably obvious which was which. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

i could fold the 1st given your play but i'd prefer to check behind the river.

i'd call the second without a second thought.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

The pot is small in the first and you are beat.


I am never raising pf in the second hand, and I am never folding on the river in that spot. If the caller on the turn raised, and it was two back to you (not possible in this hand) I might fold.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i could fold the 1st given your play but i'd prefer to check behind the river.

i'd call the second without a second thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

My exact thoughts...exactly. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

I had a very similar hand.

ME 66

PF 4 or 5 (I can't remember) callers including me

Flop 5sb [5 8 6]
UTG Bet
All Call (coordinated board and lots of callers makes me think someone is already there)
Turn 5bb [5 8 6 9]
UTG Bet
Call to Me (with one more to act)
I fold

I was picking up tells from UTG most of the night. Most of them were low confidence tells. In this hand he displayed none of them. I got a few high confidence tells in this hand but they were subtle.
After the over calls I though I had to be dead, well almost. I had 9 outs for a boat and 1 more for quads, but I figured a raise war was about to start.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I had a very similar hand.

ME 66

PF 4 or 5 (I can't remember) callers including me

Flop 5sb [5 8 6]
UTG Bet
All Call (coordinated board and lots of callers makes me think someone is already there)
Turn 5bb [5 8 6 9]
UTG Bet
Call to Me (with one more to act)
I fold

I was picking up tells from UTG most of the night. Most of them were low confidence tells. In this hand he displayed none of them. I got a few high confidence tells in this hand but they were subtle.
After the over calls I though I had to be dead, well almost. I had 9 outs for a boat and 1 more for quads, but I figured a raise war was about to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't fold that turn.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

First fold is straight-forward. In fact, given your river betting range, you can probably fold this unexploitably, meaning that folding to a raise there is probably the default play. Given the scary board and the expectation from villain that you will be calling with an ace quite a lot, I think you should fold more than game theory would suggest, not less. Clear fold.

Hand 2. You probably hold the worst hand in your turn capping range, unless you are capable of capping the turn on a draw (are you? not many are). Given that, from a game theory POV, your fold may be right a fraction of the time.

That said, I think you should call. I see people river 2-pair and think it's the nuts when they are clearly beaten way too often to lay this down. Sure, you can lose to UTG playing a higher set very nicely here, but I think you win more than 1 time in 20.

good luck.
Eric

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're joking! If you are though, I don't get it.

confused,
Eric

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

I figured I'd have to pay 4 bets to see the river. I was right. I guess I was wrong to fold with that in mind, yes?

Well...let me try to break it down. Maybe I'll understand better.

8bb and 10 outs if the next player folds
Capped 4 ways (not including me) 23bb/4bb to call = 5.75:1
Ok so it was a mistake... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Capped 3 ways 17bb/4bb to call = 4.25
Capped 2 ways 13bb/4 to call = 3.25
This is where it becomes marginal.

Based on my read it seemed right at the time. I couldn't work the math out that quickly in my head. It just seemed like it was going to get expensive to draw.

Say that I call all of these bets?
What do I do on the river when a brick hits and it is...
Bet, call, raise, Me?

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

I'm not sure why you are so convinced that it's going to be capped on the turn. That seems way too pessimistic.

[ QUOTE ]
Say that I call all of these bets?
What do I do on the river when a brick hits and it is...
Bet, call, raise, Me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold? Is this a trick question? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

It's just how the table has been playing. Strange but consistent.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

check behind on river in the first hand. If he has something that will call you (2 pair or w/e), it would have CRed you on the turn. Against a random hand on that river, you have like less then 70% equity.
The bottom line is that you are not a favorite when called.

Hand 2 is really ugly. Limp it PF. turn is standard.
The river is interesting. There are 45+15 (can't count KTdd 2x)
hands that are a straight or flush that should be very solidly within most villains' PF bb defense range, and very solidly in their "call 2, then 2 more" on the turn range.

You are getting 19-1, so you need to come up with 1/20*60=3 combos of hands that you beat on the river. I think I know the answer. Wait for it...





































OH WAIT, here's where the analysis breaks down. You don't have a read, so you have to call and hope you get shown 2 pair, and that the other dude doesn't have 66 BECAUSE YOU ARE GETTING 19-1 AND THIS IS LIMIT [censored] HOLD EM.

"payoff with confidence"

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

As played I call both hands. I prefer a check on the river in the first though. In the first hand, there is at least a reasonable chance that your opponent has 2-pair, if they were holding a pair+straight draw that included a Q.

Call the second. The BB woke up on this scare card, but the pot is huge and it's unlikely anyone has put you on a set of 5s. UTG seems to almost certainly have 2-pair, though a set of 6s is possible.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

u could fold vs a good tag in the 2nd hand I think, but ID generally call.... it would take a moron tho for BB to show up with Aces up and not KT or diamonds. first one is straight forward fold.

Hair of dog that fold on the turn is unforgivable, if you still think you were correct to fold you have lots of leaks to find im guessing... be open minded about it, I promise u are wrong here. fwiw 4 ways ur pretty happy to have 4 bets go in on the turn assuming noone has 88, plenty of skylansky bucks right now plus implied odds.

if u call the turn and the river bricks its a very easy fold facing 2 bets.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I had a very similar hand.

ME 66

PF 4 or 5 (I can't remember) callers including me

Flop 5sb [5 8 6]
UTG Bet
All Call (coordinated board and lots of callers makes me think someone is already there)
Turn 5bb [5 8 6 9]
UTG Bet
Call to Me (with one more to act)
I fold

I was picking up tells from UTG most of the night. Most of them were low confidence tells. In this hand he displayed none of them. I got a few high confidence tells in this hand but they were subtle.
After the over calls I though I had to be dead, well almost. I had 9 outs for a boat and 1 more for quads, but I figured a raise war was about to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa. Why are you not raising this flop? You've just been given an opportunity to nail the entire field for muliple bets when you're likely way ahead.

If you raise the flop, the rest of the hand becomes much easier to play.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hair of dog that fold on the turn is unforgivable, if you still think you were correct to fold you have lots of leaks to find im guessing... be open minded about it, I promise u are wrong here. fwiw 4 ways ur pretty happy to have 4 bets go in on the turn assuming noone has 88, plenty of skylansky bucks right now plus implied odds.

if u call the turn and the river bricks its a very easy fold facing 2 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. On the turn I knew I was behind and panicked a little. I didn't think through the math while I was at the table. After working it out is seems obv that I should have called the turn and fold UI vs. 2 bets on the river. I think it was a reaction to how the table was playing and a fear of having to pay off the straights out there. Gotta work on my passive tilt there. My implied odds were hugantic. Well, live and learn. That's why I'm here.

PS: Sorry for the hijack.

Re: Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?
 

Hand 1 is usually an easy fold. I would also often fold any two-pair or higher set combo as well. I think it's potentially closer than most have given credit and as such a minority of the time(25-30%) we need to call here because there are multiple two pair combos possible and I’ve seen people do stranger things when HU on “scary” boards.

Even so I treat folds like this as situations that reap two rewards. We earn immediate value from our hand(valuebetting the 1BB on the river) and the potential value of increasing our opponent's bluffing frequency in the future beyond an optimal level.

Hand 2 is a tough spot for me, IMO. Obviously the easy answer is call, next hand, thank you.

But I'm constantly trying to examine all of my situations more thoroughly than what is simply dictated by autopilot moves. It might be +EV to call, but that doesn't mean it's the highest EV play.

Sure I’m getting great odds, but given the typical nittiness of the average online 5/10 game this is a situation I feel as if I can fold without recourse. HU it’s a super easy call, but this is a protected pot after heavy action where it's obvious nobody is folding. BB is betting for value on the end, pure and simple. After the way the action has unravelled I don’t see how I’m ever ahead here. Calling two cold not once, but TWICE on a big street is a draw 99% of the time. I grant you guys that calling isn’t likely giving up a lot, and giving this kind of action and then folding can sometimes be targeted in the future, but as long as I adjust for it later I feel as if it’s acceptable assuming the fold is right ot begin with.

As for the results in hand two, BB had 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and UTG had Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. At least I was in second place.

Thanks for the responses.