nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

villain is 7/7 at only 14 hands. so not much read
and both are around 130bb so decided to play some poker

now what? do I go broke here?


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $104.15
BB: $135
Hero (UTG): $147
MP: $127.50
CO: $105.05
BTN: $72.25

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $13</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls $9

Flop: ($27.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $19</font>, Hero?

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

I dont like going broke here very much with no history, ull only get action for sure if ur tying and sometimes by a gambly aq IMO, otherwise he has a set and is stacking it or an underpair (much less likely to be betting behind here IMO) and is folding it (this is considering that hes got a normal 3betting range vs UTG). Id c/c and re-evaluate turn, btw his flop bet feels very strong so i would play tentatively. If hes behind than hes prob got 4 outs and its not the end of the world to let him c a turn decently cheaply.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 7/7 at only 14 hands. so not much read
and both are around 130bb so decided to play some poker

now what? do I go broke here?


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $104.15
BB: $135
Hero (UTG): $147
MP: $127.50
CO: $105.05
BTN: $72.25

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $13</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls $9

Flop: ($27.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $19</font>, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

i usually 4bet pf but this is fine.

c/r that [censored].

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain is 7/7 at only 14 hands. so not much read
and both are around 130bb so decided to play some poker

now what? do I go broke here?


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $104.15
BB: $135
Hero (UTG): $147
MP: $127.50
CO: $105.05
BTN: $72.25

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $13</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls $9

Flop: ($27.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $19</font>, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

i usually 4bet pf but this is fine.

c/r that [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

wicked sick

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]

c/r that [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm, you are not going to get called by a worse hand here, nor are you going to make ak or a better hand fold. Are you doing this purely to protect your hand? Is that something that is worth the risk? Or would you rather cc and see what happens/possibly let him bluff the turn?

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

c/r that [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm, you are not going to get called by a worse hand here, nor are you going to make ak or a better hand fold. Are you doing this purely to protect your hand? Is that something that is worth the risk? Or would you rather cc and see what happens/possibly let him bluff the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

aq/aj/a10 call. c/c is OK too.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

I go broke here every time.

I think against an unknown c/raising the flop is fine as he'll probably check behind everything you beat on turn if you just call here.

[ QUOTE ]

both are around 130bb so decided to play some poker

[/ QUOTE ]

130BB=100BB, no need to change your strategy.

You're OOP, just 4-bet pf if you 4-bet anything.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

i would probably just muck preflop, there is no shame folding to a nit here. reverse implied odds etc.

on this flop c/c is the best, there is absolutely no point raising, you aren't gonna get action from hands you beat

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would probably just muck preflop, there is no shame folding to a nit here. reverse implied odds etc.

on this flop c/c is the best, there is absolutely no point raising, you aren't gonna get action from hands you beat

[/ QUOTE ]
14hands

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

Whoa let's not get crazy...he has 14 hands, and his numbers are like 7/7. He could be a nit, but way more likely he just hasn't caught any cards. If you want to proceed cautiously, that's okay...play it like the OP did and call, I think it's standard to 4-bet though. I c/c flop and probably try to get it in on turn.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

I like 4bet with AK here esp because we are OOP postflop. as played I can't see any worse hand calling (especially from a nit) a flop craise. QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ are hands in his range that will prob fold to a craise. so if we have him beat at this point, he has 2-6outs. otoh, if he has us beat, A is the only card that can save us. We should check call the flop to get value here.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

Calling is ok preflop, if you plan on making moves on some flops, people dont expect you to call with AK OOP, so they probably wont weight your range towards As and Kings.

Once you flop TTP, yes, you're going broke every time.

Think in ranges, not results.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

why does top 2 even matter in a 3/bet pot? If the villain is 3/betting an UTG with a standard range of 99+ AJ+, then top 2 doesn't really make a difference.

Against AQ/AJ top 2 doesn't help anything, you have the best hand already. Against TT+ top 2 only makes things more difficult against a tight 3/betting range where with significant heat they are more than likely to pickup a set.

in a 3/bet pot, I'd infinitely rather have TPTK than top 2 w/ AK. In a 3/bet pot, would you prefer to get it AI on a A82 board? or AKQ AKJ AKT board?

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

as played a c/c is fine.

But i really like a 4 bet pf. If he pushes pf you can then decide what to do.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why does top 2 even matter in a 3/bet pot? If the villain is 3/betting an UTG with a standard range of 99+ AJ+, then top 2 doesn't really make a difference.

Against AQ/AJ top 2 doesn't help anything, you have the best hand already. Against TT+ top 2 only makes things more difficult against a tight 3/betting range where with significant heat they are more than likely to pickup a set.

in a 3/bet pot, I'd infinitely rather have TPTK than top 2 w/ AK. In a 3/bet pot, would you prefer to get it AI on a A82 board? or AKQ AKJ AKT board?

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent point. you are dead right

sorry about earlier, i didn't notice it was only 14 hands, i should read the OP properly. i still don't mind mucking AK OOP, either that or 4betting

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
as played a c/c is fine.

But i really like a 4 bet pf. If he pushes pf you can then decide what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he pushes we have to call with AK surely

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

yes i think so. a bit deeper and you can make it a small enough 4 bet to fold.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

i see no way ur not going broke, 14 hands is nothing

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

idk how .5 1 is playing these days

but id usually 4bet pre, and maybe donk this flop with the intention of 3bet shoving it...
as played i C/R but not AI, then open shove turn

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

c/f flop.

Sriously tho.... wtf? 14 hands is what? &lt;2.5 rotations. What he 3-bet me? I just called?!?! (oops) I flope top 2. He's c-bet me? On an AKT flop... Whats a boy to do.

Raise. Call. Win.

or

Raise. Call. Lose.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

c/c, don't fold

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

so I c/c this flop, and..


Turn: ($65.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $37</font>, Hero ??

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
so I c/c this flop, and..


Turn: ($65.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $37</font>, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

that is why C/R is correct on flop, trying not to be results oriented but, this is exactly why you push the action on the flop. now it is almost a fold

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

Villain's got AQ,AT,QQ,AA,KK or TT. The number of combos of KK or AA are halved since we have AK. If we rr we might get called by AT, AQ that we are ahead of, if we call are unlikey to get any more money from hands that we are ahead of that we otherwise would not. Calling also a hand containing a jack or a queen outs and I think if we call we are going to end up getting are chips in anyway unless possibly villain gets away from QQ. Therefore I think we should try get our chips in now to protect our hand when we are probably ahead.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

So if we C/R the flop we get QQ/JJ to fold and AQ/AT to call. Since a c/r pot commits us, we're still going broke against AA/KK/TT

If we c/c with the intention of getting the money in on the turn, we give all the hands we beat, the opportunity to essentially turn ther hands to bluff or make mistakes, etc.

Yeah, we give the villian the chance to draw to 6 outs assuming he has QQ/JJ/AQ/AJ but there are about 38 good cards for us. Protecting your hand isn't always the most optimal line.

Once the Qh comes on the turn, this hand is an easy c/f...if he has AQ/KQ more power to him since the average player doesn't 3bet those hands against an UTG raise and we have no reads.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

Call flop. Anything else is poor (especially CRing)

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

check/call flop. crai any non q/j turn.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

why, bc four cards in the deck could be bad for us? I havent seen anyone give a typical 3 betting range for a .5 -$1 NL player yet.

I guess we lose to everything except AQ and AT, so I think this is a fold as well. If this guy can double barrel mid PP's on that board, gg.

Actually, its 8 cards, but that changes nothing.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so I c/c this flop, and..


Turn: ($65.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $37</font>, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

that is why C/R is correct on flop, trying not to be results oriented but, this is exactly why you push the action on the flop. now it is almost a fold

[/ QUOTE ]

this is so wrong. Q or J is the only scare cards assuming we think we're good and we should think we're good. So c/c flop is good and c/r non q or j turns is good. we're trying to maximise value, not c/r the flop when we only fold out MOST hands we beat and get hands that have us beat/tie with us to call. sucks turn is a Q. and now fold. simple.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range is weighted away from AJ and AT given pf and i dont think u can guarantee that aj and aq go broke here. Also, to expect pocket queens and KQ to go broke here is pretty unrealistic

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

Any1 like to donk here?

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range is weighted away from AJ and AT given pf and i dont think u can guarantee that aj and aq go broke here. Also, to expect pocket queens and KQ to go broke here is pretty unrealistic

[/ QUOTE ]

14 hands. 14 [censored] hands.

Also, learn to table-select better if your villains are so awesome at folding.

In any case, too much work. Ike already gave you the answer. Just stove his calling range.

If his range is only sets + Aces Up + AQ you are a 2:1 favorite.

204,930 games 0.003 secs 68,310,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.232% 54.92% 09.31% 112545 19086.50 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.768% 26.45% 09.31% 54212 19086.50 { KK+, TT, AQs+, ATs, AQo+, ATo }

I mean, given how tight *you* think villain is, he can never have the nuts here, right? So this is easy.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FFS. Why would u c/c? Enjoy playing for stacks on the J/Q turn? What exactly r u scared of here? His set?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. Betting in poker is not just "HULK AHEAD! HULK SMASH!"

I think c/r is fine, because AQ,AJ,AT all call. Hell, sometimes QQ and KQ give themselves too many outs and call.

c/c is also fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about being scared. That's the wrong word. It's about giving ourselves opportunities to make easy decisions where out expected value is positive.

Ideally we want to play well, and we want our opponents to play poorly.

In other words, we want to make correct decisions and we want our opponents to make incorrect decisions.


Playing this flop passively gives us opportunities to:

a) Either make an incorrect decision on the flop. If he has AQ/AJ/QQ/JJ/22+ we want to raise now and get money into the pot while we have the best hand. Charge him for draws.

b) Make an incorrect decision on future streets. This turn highlights this perfectly. Really we have no clue about your opponents hand because other than calling, betting into a caller is a pretty passive move (that *might* be retarded) that doesnt allow us to deduce much about our opponents hand that couldn't be summarised as:

"i have played this hand so weakly that that he could be betting because there is a high chance my line folds"

And that brings us back to making easy decisions. The above idea is saying

"[censored], I could level myself so many times because if he knows this then his range just got massive"

Finally, TT+/AQ/AK typically is my 3-betting range.


28,710 games 0.005 secs 5,742,000 games/sec

Board: Ah Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.291% 56.85% 07.44% 16322 2136.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 35.709% 28.27% 07.44% 8116 2136.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So putting money in the pot is good.


Board: Ah Ks Td Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.879% 26.33% 11.55% 278 122.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 62.121% 50.57% 11.55% 534 122.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Putting money in the pot is bad.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

About as much fun as earning the minimum every time you flop the nuts in 3-bet pots.

I didn't say I felt QQ here.

I said a lot of villains do.

I make money by giving the villains a chance to donate it to me.

You lose money by always being afraid you are way behind. Even when I paint you a [censored] picture with a really tight calling range.

Whatever, though. Feel free to keep disagreeing with the whole board. GL with poker.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.291% 56.85% 07.44% 16322 2136.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 35.709% 28.27% 07.44% 8116 2136.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So putting money in the pot is good.


Board: Ah Ks Td Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.879% 26.33% 11.55% 278 122.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 62.121% 50.57% 11.55% 534 122.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Putting money in the pot is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you in principal. But you are being results-oriented. There are 8 Js or Qs in the deck, not 35. There are plenty of blank turns. Also consider that those Js or Qs will make TT,KK,AA,and AK all slow down on the turn as well -- that is, they are bad cards for you, but not complete disasters.

By the way, this is a different issue than my argument with the OP. I actually think it is correct to c/r here for value -- but not because I'm afraid of a turn J/Q.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so its tight to not go broke with queens on this flop? or to fold 2nd pair to a shove? must be fun getting stacked on every flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

About as much fun as earning the minimum every time you flop the nuts in 3-bet pots.

I didn't say I felt QQ here.

I said a lot of villains do.

I make money by giving the villains a chance to donate it to me.

You lose money by always being afraid you are way behind. Even when I paint you a [censored] picture with a really tight calling range.

Whatever, though. Feel free to keep disagreeing with the whole board. GL with poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we couldnt just hope that villain is making some retarded play (such as felting aq, kq, qq, or jj on this board - if thats what ur "tight" calling range is then....), I think ud agree that hero is rarely ahead and either tying or dead. Our hand is pretty far from the nuts. c/c and re-evaluate. Plus, villains flop bet seems very strong.

Re: nl 100, AKs, do I go broke?
 

BTW, i dont think qq or jj bet this flop when checked to very often at all and id rather not assume ppl 3bet an utg raiser with aj or a10 (even aq sometimes) AND felt this flop.