Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

I am curious to get as many opinions as possible in this hand.

PokerStars Game #10997576108: Tournament #55433701 $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2007/07/17 - 23:57:24 (ET)
Table '55433701 15' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: timkrank (107870 in chips)
Seat 2: mortens22 (52920 in chips)
Seat 3: yellowsub86 (47018 in chips)
Seat 4: Titantom32 (56472 in chips)
Seat 5: razzinu (20500 in chips)
Seat 6: GB2005 (43307 in chips)
Seat 7: lilholdem954 (259164 in chips)
Seat 8: brsavage (49262 in chips)
timkrank: posts the ante 300
mortens22: posts the ante 300
yellowsub86: posts the ante 300
Titantom32: posts the ante 300
razzinu: posts the ante 300
GB2005 : posts the ante 300
lilholdem954: posts the ante 300
brsavage: posts the ante 300
brsavage: posts small blind 1500
timkrank: posts big blind 3000

Holecards:
Dealt to GB2005 [ AdQh ]
FOLD mortens22
FOLD yellowsub86
FOLD Titantom32
FOLD razzinu
RAISE GB2005 , 5200 to 8200
RAISE lilholdem954, 15800 to 24000
RAISE brsavage, 24962 to 48962 and is all-in
FOLD timkrank

?? - what do you do

If I fold im left with just under 35K. Avg is approx 70k @ this point. I forget exactly, but we are in the money and theres approximately 25 or so players left. A little history, lilholdem is the chip leader and been very aggressive so im not really too concerned about his reraise.

Obviously, BrSavage is not bluffing, but what do you think his range is and how likely is it that im not in bad shape.


Ill post results later.

GB2005, Gary

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

It's really just a range + PokerStove question.

But I think this is a call.

IIRC savage may be kind of nitty, but not really a typical preflop nit. You, and others who regularly donkament will have played more with him than me, but I think AJs (25%), AQ+, 99 (50%), TT+ is a good guess.

I didn't run those numbers to see if it's +cEV to call with AQo, but I think it is.

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

Looks like an easy fold. brsavage is a nit.

oh and i would say br is pushing TT+,AK

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's really just a range + PokerStove question.

But I think this is a call.

IIRC savage may be kind of nitty, but not really a typical preflop nit. You, and others who regularly donkament will have played more with him than me, but I think AJs (25%), AQ+, 99 (50%), TT+ is a good guess.

I didn't run those numbers to see if it's +cEV to call with AQo, but I think it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be really surprised if he was ever pushing AJ here.

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

My initial range for brsavage was {TT+, AQ+)

Assuming thats his range and assuming lilholdem calls everytime with a very wide range, seems like a marginal fold

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

I wou1d def have gotten it in with 1i1h but f01d now his range is pretty narrow

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

Wow, I would think his range is wider than that, seeing that lilholdem is probably opening a ton with that stack. tough to call off there, but i would put br's range much lighter, probably 77+ AJ+, with the extra equity it seems like a call but i haven't ran it in pstove.

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

[ QUOTE ]
probably 77+ AJ+

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems more like his shoving range if lilholdem had flatted it.

even with lil's image, he's shoving over a raise and a 3bet. This seems more appropriate:

[ QUOTE ]
oh and i would say br is pushing TT+,AK

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a fold.

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

fold, i would be very confident one of them has you beat

Re: Marginal spot w AQ ITM $100r
 

call even if you are beat the odds you are getting are great. Also winning this pot skyrockets you to a stack you an dominate as well as knock out 2 people who you don't want on your left with their stacks.