Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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The first thing to do is to count your outs. Obviously you start from eight to your OESD and then you start discounting. In this hand there are three significant things that reduce your effective number of outs.

1) First we have to worry that with six opponents someone has a flush draw. We can calculate the odds of that. There are eleven outstanding diamonds. The odds of two of them being in one hand is 11/47*10/46 or 5%. The odds that nobody has a flush draw are .95^6 or 74%. I must admit I'm really surprised by that number and intuitively it feels like it should be more likely that someone has a flush draw. I suspect the fact that people are more likely to play suited cards makes the 74% estimate of safety somewhat higher than it should be. Nonetheless you can't count on a diamond ace or nine being good.
2) You have to worry about the possibility of full houses filling up by the end of the hand, making flushes and straights no good.
3) Lastly and perhaps most importantly with this many opponents there is a significant probability that more aces than usual are sitting in your opponent's hands and that means you may be drawing to only one or two aces. rather than the three non-diamond aces you're hoping for.

With all those factors working against you I feel like it's necessary to discount your outs to the range of four or five. Once you're down to four or five outs your equity derived via the rule of four is only in the 16-20% range, and I can't see enough equity advantage to make the flop 3-bet worthwhile. The flop donk may be okay but I don't think I do that, either. I just think there's better places to be doing your betting than this flop.

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I like that analyis with the prob of someone having a fd on the flop. I am not discrediting anything, but just as we discount outs for a draw, we have to discount some of the combinations of flush holdings that people have, for example J6, K4 etc. But in general I like the way you attacked the problem.

I was really surprised to see the stoved numbers. I remember way back when, I gave myself a blanket policy to not pump an oesd with a fd showing. It had been so long since I had an opportunity to pump an oesd I forgot what it was like. This shows me why I haven't done it in so long. It could be that I have moved to 6 max a couple months ago, but I gotta get this bonus done

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

Aaron (and anyone else that cares to address it), you're saying we're almost always facing a flush draw and at least one other person did as well. My gut wants to say that's true as well. So did I screw up my probability calculations? I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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Aaron (and anyone else that cares to address it), you're saying we're almost always facing a flush draw and at least one other person did as well. My gut wants to say that's true as well. So did I screw up my probability calculations? I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

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probability calculations do not address probable calling hands of the field ... nor would any pokerstove calculation give you any meaningful equity stat

your calculation would be meaningful prior to your first action

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

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The probability of a player having AA is 220:1. Let's say you're playing NL and it's folded to you in the small blind. You have KK. You raise to 5BB preflop, the big blind reraises to 20BB, you 4bet to 80BB and the big blind goes all-in for 200BB. Is the probability that he has AA still 220:1?

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

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The probability of a player having AA is 220:1. Let's say you're playing NL and it's folded to you in the big blind. You have KK. You raise to 5BB preflop, the big blind reraises to 20BB, you 4bet to 80BB and the big blind goes all-in for 200BB. Is the probability that he has AA still 220:1?

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ye but he probably think about first flop decision when there is no action at flop - donk or not donk then 26% that someone has FD is ok i think.

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

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The probability of a player having AA is 220:1. Let's say you're playing NL and it's folded to you in the big blind. You have KK. You raise to 5BB preflop, the big blind reraises to 20BB, you 4bet to 80BB and the big blind goes all-in for 200BB. Is the probability that he has AA still 220:1?

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[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. The odds that someone has a flush draw are higher then normal to begin with since people are more likely to play suited cards. When you add in the postflop action, you are going to see a flush draw a good % of the time. I really think that you guys should do a study on this kinda thing but hey what do I know.

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

You need to be careful limiting ranges on guys at the micros. I had a guy beat me with K8o this weekend. K8o is one of those hands I would never put anyone on in a bajillion years. Likewise some people will play anything suited. Poker players aren't rational, thank god.

OP, I donk OESD all the time, but unless I have the flush draw I don't 3-bet when there is a 2 flush on the board.

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

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You need to be careful limiting ranges on guys at the micros. I had a guy beat me with K8o this weekend. K8o is one of those hands I would never put anyone on in a bajillion years.

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I swear like half the micros needs to learn that there are extremes between "you know exactly how your opponents play" and "all your opponents have any 2 cards with equal probability"

Re: PS .25/.50 BB
 

So, I did a little more thinking and analysis on the probability of the flush draw. Xhad, you're right about the probability changing based on behavior but trying to do the mathematical analysis of that could get interesting.

I went into PokerStove and looked at starting hands. What came out of that was that roughly a third or a little more of likely starting hands are suited, which is obviously more than one would expect from ordinary suited vs unsuited statistical distributions. In other words, it reflects the selection bias for starting hands that we know exists. If we say that 32-36% of starting hands are suited then by dividing by four we get 8-9% of the time that the starting hand will be two diamonds. Based on the behavior seen in this hand the odds of that being the case probably go up significantly to about 10% per hand.

Now, if we do the same calculation on the odds of nobody having a flush draw (.9^6) we get 53% or roughly a 50% chance that at least one of your opponents is on a flush draw. That's a very significant probability and may even still be somewhat conservative given how the play has gone.