*** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

HOU @ CLE
BUF @ JAC
OAK @ KC
MIN @ NYG
SEA @ STL
WAS @ TB
NO @ CAR
TEN @ CIN

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Teased Jac -2.5 and Cin +7.5
Risk 1u to win .91u

TB -3 (-125)
Risk 1u to win .8u

Cle -3.5 (-105)
Risk 1u to win .95u

Will go into detail later.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Not convinced of the value of Clev -3.5 quite yet with Houston having A Johnson and Schaub. I'll hit it for a unit if it goes to 3, but 3.5 seems marginal to me.

TB I like, and teasers of course.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Anyone else think JAX is juicy at -8 and esp if teased to -2? What reedeming quality in Buffalo am I missing?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not convinced of the value of Clev -3.5 quite yet with Houston having A Johnson and Schaub. I'll hit it for a unit if it goes to 3, but 3.5 seems marginal to me.

TB I like, and teasers of course.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm not sure if I would have grabbed Cleveland if it was -110, but I thought it was just good enough at -105, but I'm not knowledgeable enough in the math department just yet. Houston has played much better with both Schaub and Johnson healthy, although interestingly enough it's their defense that seems to have stepped it up with both in.

Anyways, I think Cleveland is the better team, although this is by far my least favorite play of the week. I probably should have waited on it, but if it falls to 3, I'll probably drop another unit on.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Cleveland -3
Redskins +3

I traded the +110 on Redskins for a 1/2 point on CLE.

1.1u to win 1u on each.

YTD 26-14-2 +10.6u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

What puts you on Skins +3? You're definitely on the wrong side of that line...

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

What is everyones thoughts on SEA @ STL? I was going to jump all over SEA +3 but its gone from -105 to -120. I still might, but wish I could find better. Best I found was -115 but I think thats from a non-US book.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is everyones thoughts on SEA @ STL? I was going to jump all over SEA +3 but its gone from -105 to -120. I still might, but wish I could find better. Best I found was -115 but I think thats from a non-US book.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Seattle -3 and BetJamaica has Seattle -3 (-115)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is everyones thoughts on SEA @ STL? I was going to jump all over SEA +3 but its gone from -105 to -120. I still might, but wish I could find better. Best I found was -115 but I think thats from a non-US book.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Seattle -3 and BetJamaica has Seattle -3 (-115)

[/ QUOTE ]

Opps, can't edit. Thanks I will check out BetJamaica.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8) over Buffalo
Seattle Seahawks (-3) over St. Louis
Tennensse Titans (-1.5) over Cincinatti

Arizona (-10.5) over SF

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Seattle is a horrible play imo.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

bump

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Does anyone like JAX -2/SEA +4
Risking 1.4u to win 1u? I dont know how I feel about that juice.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Not a good play at all Rich. Bad bad bad teaser.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Really? Why is that?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

The juice is too high and crossing the zero in a football teaser causes you to lose even more value. This is truly -EV.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

OK I'm an NFL noob in Australia and the televised game is Bucs v Skins. Tell me who to bet on, I need some gamboooool fun. The lines on pinnacle ATM are...

Bucs:
-5.0 @ +120
-4.5 @ +115
-4.0 @ +109
-3.5 @ +104
-3.0 @ -121
-2.5 @ -145
-2.0 @ -154

Skins:
+5.0 @ -135
+4.5 @ -129
+4.0 @ -122
+3.5 @ -112
+3.0 @ +107
+2.5 @ +129
+2.0 @ +137

Also any input on the total points line would be fun. Also, what happens if I take the Bucs at (-3) and they win by 3? Do they just pay out half the ticket? TY for any input.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Yeah, I figured that juice was way too much. Thanks for the input.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

the best gamboooool's are the ones with the most plus money. Take skins +2, ftw. If you have bucs -3 and the bucs win by three, the bet is a push - you get your money back, no more, no less.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

That does sound like fun. Thankyou sir.

EDIT: I think I'll just take the Skins to win at +166

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Also, any opinion on the total points? The o/u is at 38.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

WAS +3.5 1u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

SEA/STL o45.5
Good bet?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

http://www.sagestats.com/img/data/en...l_75c453aa.pngSageStats ensign_lee

Earlier in the week (back before Thanksgiving), I hit up:

Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan

With Vinny starting, I thought that the Panthers stood a good chance of winning the game outright and couldn't understand how the Saints were favored there.

Then the Panthers line went all screwy during the week. It went down earlier in the week, presumably because people had been hitting the +3.5's and +3's really hard...all teh way to +2. then, the news of Vinny's injury came in and then today it was confirmed he wouldn't play and the line shifted back to +3.

In the meanwhile, I got trapped playing

Carolina Moneyline +120
3 units at JustBet

Fortunately, I was able to see the news yesterday and so hedged out of both that 3 unit bet and the prior 2 unit bet with the following bet:

New Orleans -2 (-110)
5 units at BetTrojan

So Right now, should new Orleans win by just 1 or just 2, I will be in a world of hurt. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Now, should new Orleans win by 3, then I'll be pretty happy, pushing my 2 unit +3 bet, losing my 3 unit moneyline bet, and winning my 5 unit -2 bet.

~~~
Earlier in the week, I noticed that tons of bettors loved Cleveland against my Texans (and actually I was thinking my boys were going to get destroyed through the air and was thinking the same thing). But the line then moved from -4 to -3.5, where it held for a few days before finally shifting to -3. Fortunately, i was able to hit up

Houston +3.5 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan

before the line shifted to 3's completely. I kind of had a hunch it was going there, but didn't know for sure. Heck, now that it's been at 3 awhile, it seems like the juice is heavy on the 3 and it could move back to -3.5. I think it'll stay at 3, though.

But when the line moved to 3, I added the following:

Houston Moneyline (+150)
3 units at BetTrojan

Usually when enough money is present to move a line on/off the 3 going BACKWARDS with what you'd think the line would do, that makes me look closely at a game and usually I end up making it one of my bigger plays. About 70% of the public is on Cleveland and it's one of the larger bet games of the day. and yet the line moved backwards A FULL POINT, and onto the 3 at that.

As for the rest of the card, I didn't see too much that interested me. Just the following:

San Diego -8.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

It's hard getting over an close, tight loss, especially with a rival. It's even harder when you thought you won the game and then had to come back out to play some more...and then lost. I'm sure that the players were distracted for a bit of practice this week and well...that's all it'll take. Plus, the Chargers at home, when healthy, should be able to fire on all cylinders (emphasis on *should*). I think that they can take care of business here.

Oakland Raiders +4 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Yeah. I got the ass end of the line here. But I could hit up the +180's that were out there at any of my books. The line's been steadily dropping with about 2 bets on KC for every one on Oakland. From 6 all the way to 4. Now, some of this is due to Priest Holmes's injury, but not all of it. Plus, Pinnacle has been consistently holding the worst prices on betting on Oakland all week. And, when I placed this bet, they were holding KC +107, meaning they'd take Oakland +4 at -107, and I was getting it at -105. Anything pinnacle is willing to take, I'm willing to take

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

this is the least amount of action i've had on sunday nfl games EVER

go jags
rest of games, do whatever the [censored] you want boys

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Looks like my Skins bet just went up in value [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is the least amount of action i've had on sunday nfl games EVER

go jags
rest of games, do whatever the [censored] you want boys

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here. I mean, I've only done this for 3 weeks now, but I had about 20-23u worth of plays in the first two weeks and less than half that this week, and most of those are wongs.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

with the last 2-3 weeks you'd think the manning family dog died

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

God Eli is awful

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

TB -3 (-125)
win

Cle -3.5 (-105)
win

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

very bad morning, panthers couldnt get 1 td in second half to cover over, and kc lost to the raiders...we just wont discuss the giants

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I also had a couple other bets that I never posted so I won't count in my official record, but I had Cleveland/Houston O51
loss

Buffalo +7.5
loss

Buff/Jax O36
win

Cinci +1.5
win