200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

Villain is a 13/7 nitty-TAG.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $386.35
MP1: $183
MP2: $242.40
CO: $28.75
BTN: $192
Hero (SB): $314.25
BB: $183.15
UTG: $201.80
UTG+1: $200

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, 6 folds, Hero calls $7, BB folds

Flop: ($18) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($42) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30</font>, UTG calls $30
<font color="blue"> I called on the flop so I can rep a flush. </font>

River: ($102) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $80</font>
<font color="blue"> I think most of his range after the turn call are overpairs. This should be a scary card if he has KK-TT. I continue to rep a flush hoping he folds a higher pair. </font>

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

insta fold if he raises?

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

[ QUOTE ]
insta fold if he raises?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm bluffing, so what do you think?

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

Putting myself in the position of the UTG raiser (who's stats don't differ that much from mine) and assuming I haven't played that much with you. I think my range when I call the turn my range pretty much has to be AA-99. I'm pretty sure I'm folding out all but AA most of the time, thus your bluff is highly profitable. Then again, if this guy has played hands with you or knows your from the forums then he might look you up a fair bit with this range.

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

River being an ace is pretty much irrelevant. He's not going to be scared of an ace as much as the flush you are representing.

Nonetheless, this line looks pretty solid.

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

I like the line. A turn check raise would look more scary to villain but there is always the fear of him checking behind.

Re: 200 NL, I turn 99 into a bluff.
 

[ QUOTE ]
River being an ace is pretty much irrelevant. He's not going to be scared of an ace as much as the flush you are representing.

Nonetheless, this line looks pretty solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

False. The naked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is def in SABRs range (right?)

SABR its a perfect spot to bluff, depends on if you think he'll fold JJ-KK type hand enough to make it +ev.