Re: For people who think running it twice changes EV
 

I'm sorry but I keep reading though this thread but have never heard the phrase "running it twice" before, is it something to do with drawing an extra card (or board) in live games after a split pot?

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EV(Running Once for Favorite) = (.7 * $100) – (.3 * $100) = $70
EV(Running Once for Dog) = (.3 * $100) – (.7 * $100) = $30


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Are you on crack? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: For people who think running it twice changes EV
 

Absolute easiest solution is to tell people to imagine running the river all 43 times.

Re: For people who think running it twice changes EV
 

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To summarize, running it twice doesn't change EV. However, this explanation was terrible, incorrect, and not convincing to anyone who was not ready to be convinced.


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In defense of my post, I made a very simple EV equation to convince those non-believers and came out with the right answer. Yeah it could be a lot more complicated and come right at the same answer. If the process is wrong it would not get the right answer plain and simple.

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Just so we're clean the process can be wrong and you still get the right answer. Several years of advanced mathematics will teach you that. So, it's not that "plain and simple". I'm not arguing with your conclusion though. Just trying to reduce the amount of people that are mis informed by your statement. A child going well the sky is blue today so 1+1 must be 2. Does that mean the child is right? Technically , yes. But boy is he screwed when the sky is dark blue the next day. :-D

Re: For people who think running it twice changes EV
 

You have a naked flush draw on the turn:

9 flush cards, 8 exposed cards (you and opponent's hole cards + board)


You run it once:
9/44 cards = 20.5% equity

Twice:

Hit exactly once (last .5 is because you win half the pot, and the second time you run it there are 43 unknown cards, not 44):
((9/44) * (35/43) * .5) + ((35/44) * (9/43) * .5) = 16.6% equity

Hit both times:
(9/44) * (8/43) = 3.8% equity

16.6 + 3.8 = 20.4% equity

.1% discrepancy comes from rounding decimals.

edit: btw I posted this because OP didn't take into account the fact that the deck is different the second time you run it (which is the only argument I can see an intelligent person making for the EV being different)

Re: For people who think running it twice changes EV
 

You make a lot less flushes running it twice, those flushy cards only hit so many times before the deck runs out. Run it once, hit your flush, and then make for the hills, that's what I always say...