15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

Hollywood Park 15/30.

UTG opens. I think his range is TT+ AQo when he raises here, but in general he limps in a ton and plays a lot of pots pre-flop, is kind of weak postflop. 3 callers (standard), I 3 bet AKo on button – I think UTG will shut down pre-flop without AA/KK to a 3-bet which makes a 3-bet easier. 16 2/3 SBB pot.

Flop is Q 6 9 rainbow. UTG bets because he never checkraises everyone folds and I call - HU. Villain has a sick smile. Turn is J - he suddenly looks super confident, and its likely not an act because he always looks worried. I call, knowing he won’t bet the river lightly or with an underpair to the board.

I miss on the river, he bets the blank card and I fold.

If the river was an A, I think I would still fold in this huge pot - no way is top pair good. Am I crazy?

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

Super standard, TT. 18:1 on the flop closing the action heads up, 11:1 on the turn with a gutshot to the nuts that's guaranteed to be good. If the river is an A he's checking his KK and betting his AQ/QQ/JJ. But the pot might be such that calling with TPTK isn't so bad. Just don't expect to win with it.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]


If the river was an A, I think I would still fold in this huge pot - no way is top pair good. Am I crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you trust your read so much, and you were planning to fold a river A, why not fold on the turn? When he bets the turn, you are putting him on AQ/JJ/KK/QQ, right? You have 3 outs against AQ and KK, and 0 outs against the others.

avg outs = (9*3 + 3*0 + 3*0 + 3*3)/18 = 2

Not to mention that, no matter how sure you of this "won't bet river A with KK" read, there is always some chance you are wrong, so you will have to contend with some chance of folding the best hand in a big pot, or with reverse-implied odds.

Also, your live read of the turn bet seems to favor QQ/JJ for him -- so 2 outs seems generous.

Seems like a turn fold.

EDIT: I just realized his PF play discounts KK even further, which makes the turn fold seem even more clear...

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible hands:outs
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible hands:outs
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

shrug, i'd call an ace wouldn't necessarily like it. i'd definitely call a K though. pot is quite large. and i have a rep of being a folder too.

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be the only one to catch the J9 double-gutter in my hand with the KT7 Q, but miss the 4 gutshot outs to broadway?

I'm starting to lose respect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Garland

Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has at least the 4 Tens as outs to broadway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah missed that.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you be the only one to catch the J9 double-gutter in my hand with the KT7 Q, but miss the 4 gutshot outs to broadway?

I'm starting to lose respect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya pretty unforgivable.... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]