A dumb bluff
 

FT 8/16 game. I have just sat and posted my BB. Button and SB in this hand are both 35/15. Button open raises, SB cold-calls, I call 9h 5h in the BB.

Flop is 7c 7d 6c. SB checks, button bets, SB calls, I call.

Turn is 2d. SB checks, I check, button checks.

River is Qs. SB checks, I bet.

Re: A dumb bluff
 

I think its really close....but I prob err on the side of no bet

Re: A dumb bluff
 

I don't think this is a "dumb bluff" but it might be -EV. In NL this would be a great bet, since you are the only person who can convincingly represent a strong hand so you could just pot it (or even overbet) to rep trips that missed a c/r.

Here in minbet-land you're getting looked up by A-hi or a pair nearly always, so i guess the question is "how often does someone have A-hi or better?" I'm not 100% on their ranges but i think getting ~5:1 you'll buy 2 folds often enough. Sb's check does look a teeny bit defensive though, knowing whether he'd bluff a hopeless hand on the river would help, if he doesn't then he'll more often fold, if he does his check means he wants to see a cheap showdown.

Surf

Re: A dumb bluff
 

Looks ok to me.

Re: A dumb bluff
 

I say it is a "dumb" bluff because what hand am I credibly representing.

But at the same time, what hands do SB and button have? SB shouldn't have flopped a pair, because he should have check/raised if he did. The 2 and the Q didn't help him unless he had exactly Qc xc or Ac 2c. Of course, one cannot discount entirely a hand like ATo which is almost certainly calling a river bet.

What does button have? I don't think he can have A high or better on the turn, because he absolutely must bet that blankiest of blankest turns. Instead, he probably has a hand without showdown value that has a fair amount of outs, so he wants to avoid a check/raise (in contrast to A high which is happy to calldown a check/raise). Hands like T9, T8, 98 all seem plausible to me. He could have random Qx hands as well.

I don't know what hand I am supposed to be representing though. I guess I could have a passively played 6x or 55-22 or a random Qx. Is that, plus the small pot size, enough to ensure that I don't get rebluffed here? Am I getting 2 folds 1/6 of the time?

Re: A dumb bluff
 

You represent 7x/66/22 that went for the greedy turn checkraise, 6x/33-55 played fairly normally if not well, Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and maybe AQ/KQ/QJ floating.

Do you have any idea which hands SB would just call with twice? Is he going to raise the flop to protect any pair? Can he coldcall preflop with a showdown hand?

The better Button plays the more likely he is to appreciate the danger of calling the river with a player behind him.

This should be a good bluff based on general principles. Theory says you need to bluff sometimes in this situation to keep getting paid. Of all the hands you could have this is one of the very best.

Re: A dumb bluff
 

On the flop his inside draw is not to the highest straight, is getting marginal odds of 8:1, there's a flush draw, and a boat could develop, and it is not heads up, and pairing probably won't help.

Does anyone besides me fold the flop?

Re: A dumb bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop his inside draw is not to the highest straight, is getting marginal odds of 8:1, there's a flush draw, and a boat could develop, and it is not heads up, and pairing probably won't help.

Does anyone besides me fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are bad things about the flop, but I think the good things outweight it:
-a nine (or even a 5) could be outs
-you are closing the action
-you might get a free look at the river

Re: A dumb bluff
 

This depends totally on whether or not villains look you up with an ace

Re: A dumb bluff
 

[ QUOTE ]
This depends totally on whether or not villains look you up with an ace

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course villain will look you up with an Ace. But that's not really what this is dependent on. You'll catch him with Jack high and also catch him not realizing that King high is basically Ace high here on the river and folding it occasionally too.

Rob