NL50 - Playing a draw against overpair
 

Villain is a known quantity. Solid player - 14/7/2.5. Does not automatically cbet - generally plays overcards cautiously. On the flop I am about 75% sure I am facing an overpair. On the turn I am about 99% sure.

Assume for the purpose of this analysis that we know that we are facing an overpair. How do I play the turn? If I call and hit, will I get paid? If I push, am I just spewing? Can I fold here?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $32.75
BTN: $64.60
SB: $50.25
BB: $56.50
UTG: $47.75
UTG+1: $61.85
MP1: $28
Hero (MP2): $50.90

Pre-Flop: Thttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif Jhttp://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (MP2)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 3http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/club.gif 6http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($12.75) 2http://www.legopoker.com/hh/images/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $10</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

Re: NL50 - Playing a draw against overpair
 

What works well for you is that you are in position, meaning value will be easier to extract should you hit. If you assume an over pair you are about 30% and hey, what do you know, pot odds are offering you that exact price. Shoving is spew, there isn't enough fold equity here against an over pair and you have JUST enough equity to call. This is all assuming that he has an over pair of course...

Re: NL50 - Playing a draw against overpair
 

Raise to $30ish. If he's as goood as you say he is, he should interpret that line as the nuts. Even if he decides to go with his overpair, we have 31% equity.

Re: NL50 - Playing a draw against overpair
 

I would not always raise but I'm definitely raising him a good percentage. There is considerable FE against most 14/7 regs in this spot IMO. You just called in position so all flopped sets and a discounted 45 should be in your range. Plus you could conceivably have an overpair to his overpair. It should not be that hard to take down this pot fairly often and as mentioned before you have pretty decent equity anyway

Re: NL50 - Playing a draw against overpair
 

since you are going to call anyway I think shoving is +EV against this guy. the flop is dry and you flat called in position. shoving behind his turn psb reps a set hardcore imo. also if he looks you up it will be good for your image in the long run because he wont be able to get away from overpairs on the turn when you take this line with an actual set.

on the other hand if you just call your fd is pretty disguised and if a diamond comes off on the river I think he still leads. if he checks vbet and get called by his overpair.