Future expectations of Happiness
 

lets pretend you play a 6 number lottery. one of two things can happen:

1. you guess 4/6 numbers and win $10,000
2. you guess 6/6 numbers and win $20,000,000. you wait for a week before you can claim the prize. the day before you go to pick it up, you notice you only guessed 5/6 numbers right, and only win $100,000.

you have the power right now to pick your future. once you pick it, you will have no memory of having made this decision. it will just happen the next day.

which one do you pick?

also, what value would you replace the $100,000 with for you to switch to the other answer? for example, if you said 2 originally, would you say 1 if you only actually won $20,000 or $50,000 instead? if you said 1, would you switch to 2 if you won $500,000 instead? where's the tipping point?

is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what?

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

It's preferrable to have more bills paid no matter that some nightmare will come with the territory.

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

Can we assume that in option two you didn't use any of your future purchasing power and will not end up in debt after not being able to collect more than $100,000?

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can we assume that in option two you didn't use any of your future purchasing power and will not end up in debt after not being able to collect more than $100,000?

[/ QUOTE ] Of course we can, otherwise it would be a completely different question.

That said, I'd rather take the 100,000 than the 10,000, but I'd obivously take the 10k rather than the 10,001. I'd say the tipping point is around 50,000 for me (I'm a poor student).

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

[ QUOTE ]
is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and it's not even close. Make the waiting time a year, the payout difference much closer and it is more interesting (though, honestly, it still isn't all that interesting).

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

don't consider debt at all. you don't buy anything during that first week.

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and it's not even close. Make the waiting time a year, the payout difference much closer and it is more interesting (though, honestly, it still isn't all that interesting).

[/ QUOTE ]on a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think you will be in option 1 after collecting your 10,000 check? 10 being the happiest.

and on a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think you will be in option 2 after collecting your 10,001 check?

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

My tipping point would be around 15,000, maybe 20,000.

I would be embarrased and a little upset at myself, but I'd get over it within a week.

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

How do you rate happiness on a 1-10 scale? That concept makes no sense to me. Both scenarios are an overall good thing happening. The fact that I made an error in scenario 2 and thought I was going to have even more money is more funny than devastating. If I needed the money to pay for an operation to heal my dying mother or something and suddenly don't get it due to my error, I guess my answer would change but barring an extreme circumstance like that, I'm not losing any sleep over getting less free money than I thought I was going to get.

Re: Future expectations of Happiness
 

you've won 20 million dollars. you call all your family and friends. for the next week, all you talk about is what you're going to buy with that money. about what its going to be like to be a multi millionaire. you talk about cool stuff you're going to buy for your friends. you talk about how you never have to work another day in your life. for a week, you're the happiest man alive.

one week later, you just lost $19,900,000. you've lost ~99% of your net worth. you're not even a millionaire. you can't buy any of the stuff you wanted to. you're embarrassed to tell all the people you were bragging to about how much money you actually won. you realize this isn't close to enough money to retire on and think about having to work for the rest of your life, when for a week, all you thought about was taking vacations for the rest of your life.

and you seriously think you will find that funny? you will be devestated.