River line - 2kPLO8
 

No real reads. I'm pretty sure by betting patterns that he has a pretty strong low/wrap but there definitely is a chance that he has a set/two pair.

I was wondering if I should Push for value or check to induce a bluff (since I'm stacking off if he has a flush newayz).

Thoughts?

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $3663
UTG+1: $3321.50
MP1: $2254.50
MP2: $3715
CO: $1970.75
Button: $2906.75
Hero: $2025
BB: $3588.75

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($100, 5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $97</font>, MP1 calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($391, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $260</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1168</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2727, 2 players)
Hero has $740 left and ???

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

IF you are planning on calling anyway I'd give him a chance to hang himself by checking...The only question I have would he be likely to call your all-in with an AK3(5)x?? I think that is the only hand that he could have that you have beat that can call you...

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

i have played less than 100 hands of 2k, but from m limited experience it is more bluff-heavy, light-called down than 1/2 or 2/4, where a river bet from villain would, more often than not, have us beat-there's a ton of possible hands that beat you
betting is pointless unless you put him on a weak flush and think he will fold, right? or will this partic. villain call with less than you have?
i think checking is good whether you're good or not, and I also think we probably have to call the river (the worst you're going to be getting 5 to 1) and I think you're good here maybe 25-30% of the time (anyone think that's an optimistic figure?)

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

i just looked at your line again its kind of a raise-or-fold flop
but i understand you're asking what to do on the end now that you got there
whats this villain's vpip/pfr/wsdn

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

I disagree with raise-or-folding on this flop as you can't get enough in and we're OOP. I think call &gt; fold &gt; raise.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

Shamb is correct here...You CANNOT raise here for the exact reason he gave...You could be WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY behind (relatively speaking for Omaha, like 2:1+) on this type of flop with bottom set and playing deep stacked you cannot get enough in...Calling and evaluating the turn is the play here, ESPECIALLY OOP...

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

How aggressive is he? This is a pretty unique situation, but it still helps a little to know.

Your repped a made hand pretty hard on the turn, you'll be getting close to 5-1 on your money, and his hand looks low oriented. Even if you are prone to bluff the turn, just about every semibluff got there on the river. Not a very good spot to bluff, IMO. Then again, tt wouldn't make much sense to semibluff and then not value bet the river, so maybe he shoves hands with zero showdown value.

Two pair with a low draw is a decent part of his range, but I don't see him calling with anything less than queens up for the same reason this is a bad bluff spot.

I think another big factor is whether he'll bet a straight for value. Because the pots so large, he'd probably feel like he gets called by a set. If you give him an ace and another low card, he has the nut straight about 20% of the time, about as often as he has a higher flush.

I'm check calling I think. At this level, I'm sure he occasionly bets a whiffed low when you check to him, and is probably value betting the straight given your likely hand and the size of the pot. He's probably gonna call with the straight too, but I dont think you get looked up by two pair as often as he is going to bluff.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

I would check and call.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

Check-call river.

Pounding the flop OOP with a check-raise is very leaky play in this draw rich board.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

I have my doubts that checking can induce a bluff here. You made a very strong move on the turn, and the pot is offering you four to one to call, so Villain would need strong evidence that a bluff would work here before putting it in with air.

If you plan to call any bet here, you're giving the negative freeroll, where villain is more likely to bet only the hands that have you beat, and check the likely losers. Given your turn rep, putting the last bit in has a small chance of knocking out a weak flush that is better than your weak flush. Granted, it's likely V will call with a slightly better flush, but it's still better than checking and watching the 7-high flush check and collect.

(Again, I don't play this rich; grain of salt.)

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have my doubts that checking can induce a bluff here. You made a very strong move on the turn, and the pot is offering you four to one to call, so Villain would need strong evidence that a bluff would work here before putting it in with air.

If you plan to call any bet here, you're giving the negative freeroll, where villain is more likely to bet only the hands that have you beat, and check the likely losers. Given your turn rep, putting the last bit in has a small chance of knocking out a weak flush that is better than your weak flush. Granted, it's likely V will call with a slightly better flush, but it's still better than checking and watching the 7-high flush check and collect.

(Again, I don't play this rich; grain of salt.)

[/ QUOTE ]

People generally don't make it this high without being aggressive. He's probably not going to bluff here that often, but I'm sure every now and then he's shoving some whiffed hand. Being more aggressive means getting away with thinner value bets, and this is certainly a spot where he could with any flush. He's probably correct to bet the nut straight for value as well.

My first post was kind of scrambled, but I think it comes down to this. Villain is going call or bet with any flush. He also probably bets or calls with the nut straight. But if you check, you allow him to occasionally bluff into you, which happens more often than you will get looked up by a good two pair, which he's unlikely to have anyway.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

its def a check-call, barring a ninja (pt) read on the partic. opp. being unusually nut-peddley (peddly?)

what about the flop though? if we're going to just call, are we sure about re-potting turn for 60% of our stack? it's a semi-blank, but villain could have just doubled his outs...we pretty much force ourselves to call anything on the end, since we're 5 to 1 (I do believe that now that we got here we have to call)
we can see if we improve on turn without filling up while exercising good pot control to the end...I agree that the stacks aren't big enough to make another smooth-call great but:
a) at such an aggressive limit you disguise your hand well
this is why with so little invested on flop I think folding&gt;calling&gt;raising
b) what do we think about smooth-call flop and FOLD turn as we haven't picked up much more to be happy about AND if he can call a re-pot here we're at best a 70/30 fav with 60% of our stack invested=mediocre spot (again villain's range important)

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

[ QUOTE ]
but villain could have just doubled his outs

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF

[ QUOTE ]
we pretty much force ourselves to call anything on the end, since we're 5 to 1

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is one reason for raising

[ QUOTE ]
a) at such an aggressive limit you disguise your hand well
this is why with so little invested on flop I think folding&gt;calling&gt;raising
b) what do we think about smooth-call flop and FOLD turn as we haven't picked up much more to be happy about AND if he can call a re-pot here we're at best a 70/30 fav with 60% of our stack invested=mediocre spot (again villain's range important)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a situation where we are 60/40 on average. That's a pretty good ROI.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

[ QUOTE ]
People generally don't make it this high without being aggressive. He's probably not going to bluff here that often, but I'm sure every now and then he's shoving some whiffed hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the concept. and I can see villain generally calling or betting any flush. However, the turn check-raise by hero might have represented NFD/NLD among other things, so there has to be some doubt in villain's mind if his flush is second best here.

Here's the math involved in 'value bet' versus 'bluff catcher':

If hero catches a bluff, he gains an extra 740, if hero convinces villain to lay down a better flush, he gains an extra 2727. What this means is that if villain bluffs 50% of the time, the expectation there is $370. To gain a similar expectation by betting into a better flush, villain only needs to lay down a better flush 13.5% of the time. (Hero's intention to call any river bet makes the EV comparison easy. )

The relevant question here is what percent of the time will villain have a better flush as compared to a bluffing hand that he will bet, and how often would villain bluff the straight compared with how often villain might lay down a middle flush.

Edit: If we assume V will call w/ a worse hand 20% of the time if H bets, but will bet a worse hand 70% of the time, that's a 50% EV increase by bluff-catching, but H only needs to push off a worse flush 13.5% of the time for pushing to be a break-even play.

Re: River line - 2kPLO8
 

His hand looks very little like a flush draw, so I don't think villain ever folds it.

Betting would be better than folding if you had some kind of read that he's calling with the nut straight but won't bet it. But there's no way to know that without history. Just like you can't know he's going to fold 63 of clubs if you bet.

Not that it really matters, but he's not bluffing 50% of the time.

If he does<ul type="square">[*]He's terrible[*]Hero would probably know that[*]If he's that bad, then he certainly isn't going to fold a flush[/list]