I can read souls...
 

Villain is running 12/9 over 33 hands, and I am running 19/17 TAG.

I really don't believe he 3bets anything less than JJ+, AK here with any kind of relevant frequency. I see JJ/QQ cold calling here a decent amount of the time.

I don't think he is 3bomb bluffing 87s or some other random crap often enough for me to even factor it in.
If I 5 bet shove I feel as though he will insta muck JJ/AK, call with QQ most of the time, insta-call AA.

I really don't think he is 3bomb bluffing 87s or some other random crap often enough for me to even factor it in.

Due to this, I decided it would be best to call and get it in on any safe flop. Perfect flop would be T42. This also adds the benefit of getting an extra bet out of AK when he c-bets.

I weigh his range heavily towards AA, with a mix of QQ/JJ/KK/AK.

I mucked the flop because I only beat QQ/AK, and tie KK.

FWIW, if I have any kind of 3betting history w/ villain or reason to believe he is a normal 100nl player, I am 5 bet shoving or getting it on this flop 100%.


Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
Hero (BTN): $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">BB raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $33</font>, Hero folds

Re: I can read souls...
 

Well if u can read his soul and it look likes pocket rockets it's an easy fold. For us who are not god-blessed we just get it in here.

Re: I can read souls...
 

33 hands isnt enough to make a read

i go broke here

Re: I can read souls...
 

lol i first thought this was bbv [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
i´m going broke here.

Re: I can read souls...
 

seriously - what do you want us to comment on - you have 33 hands on the guy and you can read his soul

get it in on this flop man

Re: I can read souls...
 

gross

Re: I can read souls...
 

leave your ego at the door, k, thanks.

Re: I can read souls...
 

You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 100bb, and he 4bet to 20bb. What do you want to 5bet to that is not a shove?

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
leave your ego at the door, k, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is funny.

Re: I can read souls...
 

fgators hacked your account?

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 100bb, and he 4bet to 20bb. What do you want to 5bet to that is not a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody 4bet preflop, there was a cold caller to the initial open. Which is one reason why I shove here preflop, multi way flops with overpairs can suck sometimes.

Re: I can read souls...
 

Push preflop for crap sakes.

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You could try 4betting, I don't see why you should go straight to 5 betting that's pretty weird, as played don't fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

We have 100bb, and he 4bet to 20bb. What do you want to 5bet to that is not a shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody 4bet preflop, there was a cold caller to the initial open. Which is one reason why I shove here preflop, multi way flops with overpairs can suck sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I did botch up the 4bet/5bet lingo...anyways u get my point.

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop for crap sakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

As stated in the OP I believe this will fold out JJ/AK like 90%+ of the time, and QQ will most likely fold at least 20% of the time. Which is the reason why I decided to call and get it in on a "safe" flop.

Re: I can read souls...
 

I believe you are incorrect sir.

Re: I can read souls...
 

In an attempt to shine some light on this situation, lefts make a few assumptions.

1. Villain is holding five hands (JJ+, AK).
2. The frequency of holding each hand will be derived from the # of combos remaining in the deck on the flop.
3. If we shove on the flop, villain will fold AK and call with JJ+.
4. For the sake of simplicity we will pretend villain folds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Which is obviously retarded. However it represents a small part of the equation.

AK = 8 combos
AA = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo
QQ = 6 combos
JJ = 3 combos

Total of 24 combos.

Here is the possibility of villain holding each hand.

AK = 8/24 = 33%
AA = 6/24 = 25%
KK = 1/24 = 4%
QQ = 6/24 = 25%
JJ = 3/24 = 13%

Here is the equity we have versus each hand he calls with on the flop.

AA = 12%
KK = 25% (note we would split the pot)
QQ = 90%
JJ = 15%

Combined equity against his calling range.

AA = 12% * 25% = 3%
KK = 25% * 4% = 1%
QQ = 90% * 25% = 22.5%
JJ = 15% * 13% = 2%

Our total equity against his calling range equals 28.5%.

Now we need to figure out how much FE we need to break even on a shove.

When we shove and...

He calls and we lose = -$80
He calls and we win = +$120
He folds = +80

FE Calculation

FE

= 80f + (1-f) [ .285(120) + .715(-80)]

f = 18%

We need 18% equity to break even on a shove. Villain will be folding AK 33% of the time. Therefore it is +EV to shove the flop under these conditions.

Conclusion

If we assume villain is looser than this example then shoving this flop is printing money.

Obviously if villain is tigther than this example shoving will cost us money in the long run.

Re: I can read souls...
 

All three of your assumptions are incorrect to a degree, but the assumption that AK will fold to a preflop push 100% of the time is especially lol. Opponent's don't behave in binary fashions.

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
All three of your assumptions are incorrect to a degree, but the assumption that AK will fold to a preflop push 100% of the time is especially lol. Opponent's don't behave in binary fashions.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are entitled to your opinion, and you obv. have some good points. I have done my best to show you the other side of the fence. I can't expect to magically change your thoughts on this situation.

I believe he shows up with AA/JJ more often than 37% of the time here, therefore I folded.

I agree in a vacuum folding this is a mistake in the long run. However it is a very close between shoving and folding given the set of circumstances in this hand.

No you cant
 

Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

Re: No you cant
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

[/ QUOTE ]


lol

Re: No you cant
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL...nice job man...this will surely help me get flammed ultra hard.

Re: I can read souls...
 

It's 33 hands dude. I've run at like 7/5 over that many hands. It means [censored].

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
4. For the sake of simplicity we will pretend villain folds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

this is impossible, ducy?

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's 33 hands dude. I've rune at like 7/5 over that many hands. It means [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

couldn't agree more. you can't base much on this, if anything over 33 hands of history

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's 33 hands dude. I've rune at like 7/5 over that many hands. It means [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

couldn't agree more. you can't base much on this, if anything over 33 hands of history

[/ QUOTE ]

True he is obv. 3 betting me OOP w/ a hand like 77-99, AJo, or 87s. Absolutely. We really cant infer ANYTHING about the kind of player he is through 33 hands.

Re: No you cant
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL...nice job man...this will surely help me get flammed ultra hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was actually going to say that Diamond's post is irrelevant. Results dont matter.

Re: No you cant
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL...nice job man...this will surely help me get flammed ultra hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was actually going to say that Diamond's post is irrelevant. Results dont matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

diamond was not the villain in this hand. Hes my amigo who is having a great time with this...

Re: I can read souls...
 

I think your range is way of here. Some players like to play thight when they sit at a table, so your read that he is very thight might be way off(or maybee he is getting some crappy card). Even thigth players realise that this is a great spot to squeeze, a button raise and a sb call =&gt;lots of dead money in the pot. I think you will frequently see aq and tt or 99 here. And somethimes some other stuff.

I like just getting in as much money as possible preflop.

Re: I can read souls...
 

this is really bad.

4bet pf
push flop

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's 33 hands dude. I've rune at like 7/5 over that many hands. It means [censored].

[/ QUOTE ] couldn't agree more. you can't base much on this, if anything over 33 hands of history

[/ QUOTE ] True he is obv. 3 betting me OOP w/ a hand like 77-99, AJo, or 87s. Absolutely. We really cant infer ANYTHING about the kind of player he is through 33 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. You can infer enough to not go crazy with AQ or w/e but to play KK like this is ridiculous based on a relatively insignificant sample of hands.

edit: even with accurate stats this is terrible bc one of th characteristics of a pretty big nit is that they really don't like to fold once they start putting a bunch of money in the pot.

Re: I can read souls...
 

I love ssnl

Re: No you cant
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, can't believe you layed down KK to me...

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100
UTG: $127.85
MP: $73.15
CO: $68
BTN: $101
SB: $56.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $15.50, SB folds

Flop: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $33</font>, BTN folds

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't even the same flop/hand (note there was a J instead of a Q in OP)... this site is rigged.

Re: No you cant
 

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm no

Re: I can read souls...
 

im usually going broke in this spot, however i 4 ball preflop because i see people do some insane stuff at these stakes, plus with a larger pot preflop i get it in on any flop regardless of what it is and my life has been made that much easier.

i agree with the others that 33 hands is not enough to make a solid read on someone but sometimes you just have a feeling, like sometimes you lay down TP2K on a A 10 4 flop just because the guy check raised you. make a read and go with it, and i think that is something our crew does much better then alot of other players. like weve said online is about taking numerous calculated equity edges based on ranges and live is based more on feel and reads. when you combine the two alot of good things can happen.

but i still get it in here 99.9% of the time and that other .1% is saved for this spot where i just trust my instinct.

Re: I can read souls...
 

You might be able to read souls but you can't do math. If he always calls you with JJ+ on this board you are a 55/45 dog. LOL at folding

Re: I can read souls...
 

I fold PF.

Re: I can read souls...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You might be able to read souls but you can't do math. If he always calls you with JJ+ on this board you are a 55/45 dog. LOL at folding

[/ QUOTE ]

you might be able to do math but your bad at understanding the OP. i think top set is better the a 55% favorite.

there are 2 different hands posted here, one which is fake.

Re: I can read souls...
 

lol shove preflop. You have 30 meaningless hands on him...

I had lags play like rocks for 100s of hands

Re: I can read souls...
 

Shove preflop. Failing that, shove the flop.

If you ever want to move up, you can't be a weaktight fgators.