Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

No reads on villain. But he's not a grinder, because I have never seen him before. Besides people on EVP are in general more passive than on stars etc. Is it fine to bet/call turn?

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00/$4.00 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

MP3 ($396.00) (Hero)
CO ($398.00)
Button ($341.70)
SB ($273.20)
BB ($89.20)
MP2 ($72.00)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $12.00, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>,

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( $32 )
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $28.00</font>, SB calls $28.00,

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( $88 )
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $62.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises All-In $231.20</font>, Hero calls $169.20

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

"But he's not a grinder, because I have never seen him before. Besides people on EVP are in general more passive than on stars etc."

I think you answered your own question. What hand does a passive player push here that you beat?

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

unless he is ridiculously passive, you should get it in.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

What do you think his range is?

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

Kinda worst case scenario is probably something like below and then it's slightly marginal -EV, but a random fish range could perhaps consists of other crappy hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.091% 69.09% 00.00% 1368 0.00 { Ah8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 76s }
Hand 1: 30.909% 30.91% 00.00% 612 0.00 { 99 }

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

He could have a set. Donks play sets like this no matter board texture.

I don't think i bet/fold vs donks in this spot especially with good potodds, so probably a thin call.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

yeah i think you gotta call here
checking the turn is so much more superior to a bet/fold here but without a read i dunno if it's better than bet/call.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

ya as mentioned above, this play is kinda marginal but theres not really a better alternative.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kinda worst case scenario is probably something like below and then it's slightly marginal -EV, but a random fish range could perhaps consists of other crappy hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.091% 69.09% 00.00% 1368 0.00 { Ah8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 76s }
Hand 1: 30.909% 30.91% 00.00% 612 0.00 { 99 }

[/ QUOTE ]

dont see how this is worst case scenario considering it's missing sets and overpairs, we are far behind a passive players range here and i think this is a very strong fold as played.

this is coming from someone who loves to make big calls too, i just dont see this being profitable long run. maybe you stack a crazily played flush draw but i dont think we see it enough

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
No reads on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides people on EVP are in general more passive than on stars etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it fine to bet/call turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

&lt;yoda voice&gt;Look inside your self and you shall find the answer. &lt;/yoda voice&gt;

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No reads on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides people on EVP are in general more passive than on stars etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it fine to bet/call turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

&lt;yoda voice&gt;Look inside your self and you shall find the answer. &lt;/yoda voice&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah you are right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
&lt;yoda voice&gt;Look inside your self and you shall find the answer. &lt;/yoda voice&gt;

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah you are right [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yoda is always right. It's what makes him yoda :P

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

I think I would probably call (I am not a master at making laydowns). I really do not think it is big +- EV either way. I guess with TT I would be pretty comftorable calling .... 99 seems borderline. Always a posibility that he thought your turn bet was kind of weak and that he is making a play, maybe he picked up a flush draw and overcard on turn.

The fact that he is in short tilts this to a call for me, plus I place some value on learning when the situation seems so close .... tending to call. I do not think he is a very good player, but if he really had a big hand he had no reason to get fancy, he could have just value bet close to pot oon turn and river to get it All IN.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

lol how could that be the worst case scenario

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

umm, 9's are usually always beat here... by usually I mean over 50% of the time. Passive villain, is going to push a draw here? float with 6 7 of hearts and push an openended straight flush draw? Going to push A 5? Most of these hands villain would be calling, and check folding or bluffing river. I fold here. If I was going to guess, it looks like A 3 is protecting its hand.

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol how could that be the worst case scenario

[/ QUOTE ]
Hehe

True worst case scenario is if he also has slowplayed sets and overpairs in his range as well etc

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kinda worst case scenario is probably something like below and then it's slightly marginal -EV, but a random fish range could perhaps consists of other crappy hands:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.091% 69.09% 00.00% 1368 0.00 { Ah8h, Th8h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 76s }
Hand 1: 30.909% 30.91% 00.00% 612 0.00 { 99 }

[/ QUOTE ]

That range is straight absurd

Re: Overpair got CRAI on turn
 

As played I think I fold his hand range is really large here, hes holding a 2 pair/set type of hand or hes has a big flush draw with 2 overs, either way I think you -EV to put your money in vs what hes holding.