Re: Prop bet thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assani - thanks for your input.

15 FT attempts a minute feels on the high side when you factor in small rest breaks or slow-downs over the half hour (I think he'd need to at points during the half hour). So let's say 13 and at 70% makes (I agree with you, my initial 80% is way too high, I could actually see due to fatigue it being less than 70%) it's around 273 made for the half-hour. At 60% level it's 234.

I still feel pretty comfortable with an even money line of ~240 - I'll post results after it goes down, will be interesting to see how it turns out.

-Al

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<--- owned

He ended up 375 for 475 (79%). Pretty sick performance, imo. His percentage and shot attempts actually peaked in the last 10 minutes (went 139 for 167 at 83%). Fatigue was absolutely not an issue. At each 10 minute mark he took about a 20 second break, then got right back into it.

For the 30 minutes, this is roughly a shot every 4 seconds, or 16 attempts per minute. When he was in a rhythm, knocking them down, he'd get off a shot every 2-3 seconds. He never took a jump shot, always a traditional free throw, legs planted.

Overall very efficient performance - luckily I hedged some of my bets and actually ended up... but I was way off in my initial estimate. Assani had a very good feel for this bet based on his comments above.

Though I also think this guy is very above average, and 375 would be tough to get to for most players...

-Al

Re: Prop bet thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
PROP BET!!!

I will bet anyone up to 100k in a game of dota 2v2 -apemom where i get to pick both you and your teammate's heroes, and still pick mine and my partner picks his. we can do best of 9 or something to make sure theres no lucky last hits or something silly. we can do this on lan so as there is no lag. also, i will take this bet for as small as 100 dollars per person, so challenge away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easily the worst prop bet I've seen posted so far. Techies + KOTL vs Earth shaker and vengeful and the first team would NEVER win.

As an aside, is anyone currently taking weight loss prop bets? I'd love to challenge someone to a weight loss-athon for the next 2 months or so.

Re: Prop bet thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PROP BET!!!

I will bet anyone up to 100k in a game of dota 2v2 -apemom where i get to pick both you and your teammate's heroes, and still pick mine and my partner picks his. we can do best of 9 or something to make sure theres no lucky last hits or something silly. we can do this on lan so as there is no lag. also, i will take this bet for as small as 100 dollars per person, so challenge away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easily the worst prop bet I've seen posted so far. Techies + KOTL vs Earth shaker and vengeful and the first team would NEVER win.

As an aside, is anyone currently taking weight loss prop bets? I'd love to challenge someone to a weight loss-athon for the next 2 months or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

ill do a weight loss bet with you what kind of stakes we looking at

Re: Prop bet thread
 

Al,

Some questions about your bet.

- what odds did you ultimately settle on? For how much? Who did you hedge with? (if you feel like disclosing...mostly I'm interested in the wagers/odds/etc., not names)

- why did he keep shooting after he won the bet? Because he didn't know that he had? To see how good of a number he could put up?

- who was keeping score/how were they doing it?

- where there any spectators looking on?

Re: Prop bet thread
 

Tup:

- I settled on an even money bet at 240 (I took the under) against the shooter ($500). I took an even money bet at 210 (I took the over) for more money against a couple other people, so I came out ahead.

- He had a whole range of bets (e.g. shooting % in last 10 minutes). So he had to shoot the whole 30 minutes. Also I think he wanted to know how many he'd make for future bets.

- We had 3 scorekeepers, 1 disinterested party and 2 other people with skin in the game. They just marked makes and misses on a scoring sheet with boxes for each minute. Shooter requested count and time call every 5 minutes. It was also videotaped because he had people on the East Coast taking action and he needed proof.

- 20+ people gathered to watch him hustle us all. It was at a local LA high school gym (actually ridiculously nice court). I challenged the shooter to a game of HORSE after the bet ended. Despite giving me HOR, I only tagged him for H before losing, pretty sad, imo.

He could hit 400 I think on a good day. He only shot 73% in the first 10 minutes (118/161) and said it was cause he was nervous. I believe it, as I mentioned his last 10 minutes was his strongest stretch (139/167).

-Al

Re: Prop bet thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tup:

- I settled on an even money bet at 240 (I took the under) against the shooter ($500). I took an even money bet at 210 (I took the over) for more money against a couple other people, so I came out ahead.

- He had a whole range of bets (e.g. shooting % in last 10 minutes). So he had to shoot the whole 30 minutes. Also I think he wanted to know how many he'd make for future bets.

- We had 3 scorekeepers, 1 disinterested party and 2 other people with skin in the game. They just marked makes and misses on a scoring sheet with boxes for each minute. Shooter requested count and time call every 5 minutes. It was also videotaped because he had people on the East Coast taking action and he needed proof.

- 20+ people gathered to watch him hustle us all. It was at a local LA high school gym (actually ridiculously nice court). I challenged the shooter to a game of HORSE after the bet ended. Despite giving me HOR, I only tagged him for H before losing, pretty sad, imo.

He could hit 400 I think on a good day. He only shot 73% in the first 10 minutes (118/161) and said it was cause he was nervous. I believe it, as I mentioned his last 10 minutes was his strongest stretch (139/167).

-Al

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man, i told you all how easy this would be

Re: Prop bet thread
 

Al,

Wow, that's awesome. Thanks. You are a good gambler too, solid hedging. Obviously you were pulling pretty hard for him to nail 211-239.

Re: Prop bet thread
 

All,

I have a friend who thinks I can lose 15 pounds in 1 month. I am not fairly active and don't really have great eating habits. However, I'm not obese, I'm ~160 5'8'' 23yo. I'd estimate my body fat % at around 15-18%.

What odds should I give him for the bet to be fair?

Also, should I cross-post in Health&Fitness?

Re: Prop bet thread
 

ok, here's my idea for a prop bet: Since stars has recently decided to allow players to play up to 24 cash tables at once, and the non-mixed games they offer number 8, which divides 24, prop bettor A(let's refer to them as me) would play 3 tables of holdem, 3 tables of omaha hi, 3 tables of o8, 3 tables of stud, 3 tables of stud8, 3 tables of razz, 3 tables of draw, and 3 tables of triple draw, for X hours, and make Y profit. If none of these criterion are met at the agreed upon time, the bet($L) is lost by me. If all criterion are met at the agreed upon time, I win($W).

I'm able to 12-table but I've never done more than that.

What variables would you put in here if you were taking the other side of the bet?

Also, second idea: 24-table for 24 hours. That would be interesting

Re: Prop bet thread
 

made it through most of this thread when people were talking about college female athletes vs intermural level males.

Everyone said there isnt a sport where the women would win. I think they would in indoor Volleyball if we are using the top level female teams