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-   -   wrong bet size or simply horrible play (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=512373)

crunchh 09-30-2007 10:32 AM

wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
I don t have the hand readout nor exact stack size because it was a live tourney

20£ 50 ply tourney 4 players remaining
was chip leader but recently doubled up two players loosing 2 60/40

before that i have been quite active stelling the bling and won a few all ins situation showing mostly good cards

I am on the button
utg fold I think around 14k

me 20k
SB 15k gamble against short stack but showed me lots of respect until now, gambled only one of my rase with QJ agains A7 3 hands before, 2nd biggest stack now, I would think he would tighten up especially since he has a good steel position again 2 other more tight

BB 12k rather tight, I don t like his style (limp on button with AA, a few miniraise (once showing 55), 3 push in position in c40 hands

blinds 600-1200

I have 10-9s I decide to attempt a steal, raise 4k

sb fold bb push 8k to call

I think my bet sizing was horrible because given what i hestimate his pushing range I think I had around 30-35% chance to win the hand and I have to call 8k in a 16.5k pot
but if I loose the hand I am in a very bad chip position at table

I think that a 3k raise would have folded the same amout of hand or maybegot a call from hand he would go al in in an 8k pot instead of 6k

do you think it was horrible to try to steal with this hand, do you think my fold was horrible, how would you have played it

willperkins 09-30-2007 10:55 AM

Re: wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
Raising against a tight player in the BB with T9s is not a bad play.

However, if I understand correctly, he has only t9200 left because he posted t1200 and shoved t8000?

You raised t4000, SB folds, that means there is t5800 in pot and he shoves t8000 more. This equals to t13800. It costs you t4000 to call?

You would be getting 3.45 to 1 to call. Even if he has AA, you are getting close to the right odds to call.

More than likely, if he is a tight player, he probably has a pair or a big A.

Either way, at 3.45 to 1, I would call.

crunchh 09-30-2007 11:10 AM

Re: wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
sorry no I think he had 12 left becaus when I asked how much it was to call the dealder said something around 8k

so I raise to 4k and he is all in if I have 8k to call I think he had 8+4 = 12k

sorry if I wasn t clear

Eratosthenes 09-30-2007 12:15 PM

Re: wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
Stealing with T9s is fine. You did size this bet to give yourself a tough decision if BB pushes. Raising to 3000 would mean that you would be getting 1.6:1, so 38% would be break even--still not an easy fold.

How about betting more so that you have odds to call any push. Raising to 5k would mean you would be getting almost 2.5:1, so it would be an easy call. If you are going to pot commit yourself, you should just push.

crunchh 09-30-2007 01:33 PM

Re: wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
the problem with open showing is that given the sb is a good player ready to gamble and that i have never open pushed yet i think his calling range would be much wider (during the tourney he called one of my all in while i was short staked for 5bb with me ug with Q6-fortunately had aq)

so I don t really want to open push

as well as calling a 1 to 3 in term of equilibrium of the stacks i guess 2 times in 3 I will be in a difficult position espectially given the player on my right who will be able to play his stack against me

I took a long time to fold but all in all I decided i was letting go a small edge, well maybe i don t have the guts to be a good tourney player

you think wisest play was to call ?

Eratosthenes 09-30-2007 02:02 PM

Re: wrong bet size or simply horrible play
 
Most of the good posters here will always (or almost always) call in a spot like this when they are getting 2:1 pot odds. This is usually correct. For example, if you give BB the range of any pair, A9+, A7s+, KQ, KJ+ then you have 38.6% equity and should call getting 2:1.

Any pair and AJ+ is 39.4%.
66+ and AJ+ is 36%.
88+ and AJ+ is 34%.
99+ and AJ+ is 32.9%.

99+ and AJ+ is pretty tight even for the those really tight live tournament players. If he is pushing with Ax x<9, then you are getting great odds and have to call.

Against a typical online player, this is a pretty easy call. In a live tournament your reads are very important. You were there--I wasn't, but I'm calling unless I have a really good reason not to.


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