NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Villain is 35/5/2.3. Probably played every street wrong.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $9
Button: $10.40
SB: $9
BB: $43.80

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.6</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.3, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1.3</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($3.9, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $3.9</font>.



I called flop because I put SB on a pocket pair and figured they either had me crushed right now or were drawing to 2 outs. As well as criticisms of how I played the hand so far, what is the plan now?

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

How many hands are stats over? 5% preflop raise overall could mean a very narrow range in blinds, especially when its a 3bet. His range could be as tight as AK or QQ+ now, which puts you in bad shape.

A 4bet preflop might have cleared this up because he probably 5bets KK and AA, but not AK, QQ, or less. Flop I'm fine with, truly way ahead/way behind. Turn is tough now because we are counting on QQ to be in his range and now it beats us. We can't really call for the flush draw because there's not enough implied odds unless we think he also has AK. This is looking more and more like a fold.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

I don't know what I think about the flop call. I'm inclined to throw out a PSR here. Gets rid of queens ideally and maybe lets you see a cheap river. Turn puts you further behind his pf 3bet range. Turn is fold for me as played because you don't beat any hand he's playing from turn; you only draw with AK unless you hit your flush.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Pf, fine with me. With position I will call here a lot. His stats say this raise is TT+, AK maybe even a bit narrower. I am thinking it is AK about 1/2 the time since guys with these pf stats are timid with TT-QQ and slowplay KK, AA sometimes.

Flop, fine given the PF action. I am now slightly ahead of his range but as you noted he is gonna fold the weaker hands most of the time if you raise. We don't really have any more info since he would play all his hands this way on this flop.

Given his fair aggression factor, AK and AA make up a pretty good percentage of his range. Maybe 60% AK, 20% AA(with maybe 10% weaker pairs/garbage and 10% KK, QQ).

I think you marginally have odds to call hoping to see showdown cheaply if a no diamond falls. This depends on how often he pays you off with AK/AA when you make the flush.

A fold wouldn't be terrible. A shove only makes sense against a player who folds AK pretty often in this spot which isn't likely at 10NL.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

I would raise the flop bet and consider folding to a re-raise. This guy has a very narrow range w/ such a small PFR and I'd rather find out if we're WA or WB before the pot gets much bigger.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Flop is a definate PSR. Contradicting the first response, I think its fair enought to assume this villan's pf3bet range is at least JJ+,AK without other reads.

Against this range we have about 2/3 equity. Calling flop is out of the question imo.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.109 secs 199,816 games/sec

Board: 4d 4s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.598% 51.78% 12.82% 11278 2791.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 35.402% 22.58% 12.82% 4919 2791.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Haha... typical of any thread I start the responses are 50/50. I still don't know about the flop.

Why with 2/3 equity do you think it is out of the question to just call though? Why not wait for a safe turn to get more info?

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is a definate PSR. Contradicting the first response, I think its fair enought to assume this villan's pf3bet range is at least JJ+,AK without other reads.

Against this range we have about 2/3 equity. Calling flop is out of the question imo.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.109 secs 199,816 games/sec

Board: 4d 4s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.598% 51.78% 12.82% 11278 2791.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 35.402% 22.58% 12.82% 4919 2791.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, we aren't ahead of the range that calls our flop raise, villain likely mucks JJ and QQ (and TT if it's in his range). We are WA/WB, so I agree with the flop call, with the intention of extracting some value from underpairs on later streets. On turn, I'd reevaluate and muck, the Q has brought a second overpair to TT and JJ, so I doubt villain would fire again with these and QQ just filled up.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Fold turn, unless he is complete donk he doesnt pot the turn with JJ, TT - he has AK(6 combos) AA (3 combos) KK (1 combo) QQ (3 combos), you either chop or youre crushed.

Re: NL10: top pair top kicker, played flop weak again
 

Call, call river as played. I'd prob just shove PF too.