Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This is part 3 of our first Play a Hand With the Masters. If you haven't already read, thought about, and posted in the pre-flop thread and flop thread you should do so first.

Here is the hand up until our next decision point:

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Action is on the hero.

Range of hands for CO? Do you fold, call, or raise (and if so, how much)? Thought process is obviously critical here. If you call or raise do you have a plan on the river (presuming you do not raise all-in)?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Best card in the deck (or worst) I'd raise to 5000.

a) it looks like you had a set, or maybe KJs, so you have FE.
b) you now got lots of outs for the river, assuming he actually calls you.

If he or MJ pushes, i'd call getting 2.5:1.


edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.

Not sure if that'll happen, but i think your FE is bigger now than it was on the flop.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

If you're a risk-taker and you don't mind going home early, you can re-raise here or push, although you'll essentially be pot-committing yourself to the hand with lots of outs, but your entire tournament at risk.

I would likely "think" for awhile and smooth-call. I still have position, and can win if I hit on the river, or get away if I don't hit. A smooth-call might scare the CO into checking, depending on the river card, so you might get a free showdown.

I think most pro's would re-raise in this spot though, since they're interested in accumulating chips early instead of just struggling through as an average stack.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I like the raise to 5K.
Since it's 1/2 of our remaining stack or so it shows we are committed to this pot (with stacks as deep as these maybe "committed" is the wrong word - how about "dedicated?"). However anyone calling has to assume that we'll be putting the rest of our chips in on the river. And they should probably assume we're calling if they raise.
Our raise may look like we have a set or other big hand and are concerrned about the two clubs on board. There's also a slim chance that if the CO just calls us that he'll bluff at a 3rd club assuming we're afraid of it.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I flat call. You have an open ended and a nut flush draw, but this is not that strong on the turn. The board is dangerous. You could easily be up aginst a straight, 2 pair, or a set. You are almost a 2-1 underdog against a pair. When you call, you hope the SB doesn't checkraise.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I like the re-raise to 5K as well though. It gives you two shots to win all those chips:

1. Your opponent goes away
2. You hit your draw on the river, and you have plenty of outs

I originally advocated betting the flop, because it would give us a better idea where we stood against our opponents, and allow us to risk 1K or so and get away without risking anymore chips. Now we might be putting in more than that and have allowed ourselves to be outdrawn, and we wind up putting our entire tournament at risk on a draw.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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edit: if you are 35% to win if your bet is called, then your raise has to take it down only 25% of the time to be profitable.


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More profitable than folding, that is. Just because a play is +EV doesn't make it the best play.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

In this case with just 1 card to come I would opt for the smooth call. If SB calls great more into the pot, but if he raises there is the possibility of more chips for us, If he folds so be it, at least he was given a chanse to contribute .And in the case he folds or just calls, should the club or K fail to fall one still has chips to work with.
Range co:AK-T, KQ, QJ,QT,JT, If AA-55 horribly played

I think the flush draw is decently hidden, and that the hand has implied odds if one more should fall.

Had the flush draw been materialized on the flopp I`d be more willing to raise then, but not so with 1 card to come, but might call a reraise from sb dependent on size and co`s action
This is a wonderfull turn for the hand, but I wouldnt jump out of my chair.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This exercise is harder than I thought when Hero's action isn't what I said I would do!!

I'm pushing here. Tons of outs if I'm behind, and the check of the flop looks like a steal gone wrong on my end.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I wish we had bet the flop, maybe 1000 to see where we stood. It has good texture for us and with only 2 opponents we have a good chance to use position to take this down right there (and if not, there are redraws out there). We're still a bit weary of the CO's open limp, and by checking behind we have no idea if anyone is sitting on something big.

Since we checked, I like the smooth call. We can get away from this hand if we miss, and probably win a nice pot from CO if we hit on the river. By raising here to 5,000, if the CO calls and a blank hits on the river, what would our play be? We showed no strength on the flop so that makes this play less believable. Do we really want to push the rest in on an ace-high bluff? The CO would be getting good odds so that may not even be enough to push him off if he has something like QJ.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Well MJ is done here in my mind. He has checked twice and there are a million draws out there so he would bet if he was going to continue. Which I don't really think is all that weak tight. He called with a good hand and wiffed, he is allowed to check fold.

I would put cutoffs range at TT-55,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o So basically most limping hands have got there.

We are only about 36% from here. But everything looks so pretty. The question I would now ask myself is "What are my chances of winning a much bigger pot?" Not too good.

So now if I raise I have to raise to about 4,000 which is almost half of my stack. And if he calls I have to push the river. So it has become a push/fold. I might lean towards folding.

But, that would really matter about the table and what I think I could do with a monster stack or with the stack I have now. If I feel like if I double up here I will rule this table I might gamble. Because there are a good number of holdings he might not call with. I would think he is only calling with a straight or a set of 10s, which really helps our fold equity and might make this a slightly +EV spot.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

i'm gonna jump on the raise to 5k bandwagon. i think it'll be tough for CO to just call a strong hand on the raise, so i'd push any river (except maybe a Q). get all-in on the turn if need be.

i don't know why everyone is talking about the "deep stacks" like it's level one at the wsop. this is almost exactly like level 1 at party only multiplied by 10.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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i don't know why everyone is talking about the "deep stacks" like it's level one at the wsop. this is almost exactly like level 1 at party only multiplied by 10.

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I guess b/c I'm used to having much less when the BB 150.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I don't understand why anyone would push here. There is not enough information to do so--the villians have only invested 600 each in this pot and the flop was checked around. While the hero has a fantastic drawing hand he is likely behind here and could be up against KJ or even J8 as well as a set.

Range for MJ/CO: AA-22, AK-A9, KQ-K9, QT-Q9, JT-J8

I call. I don't want MJ to raise. The river question is how badly to go after the pot if I don't make my hand and its checked or small bet to me. I don't think its that tricky if the flush or straight comes.

I play this hand much more aggressive if I'm HU....

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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i don't know why everyone is talking about the "deep stacks" like it's level one at the wsop. this is almost exactly like level 1 at party only multiplied by 10.

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Its "Day One" and its $10K and its likely the third or fourth level.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

i hate raising here and think its a pretty bad play. I call and i dont like where i'm at right now. Folding is good if you dont think he'll call a value bet when you hit.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I call here.

I push any 8,j,club,k on the river. I fold/check everything else.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

MJ still to act kind of scares me, but I do suspect he's done with the hand after two checks. I favor a call, as it allows me the most options on the river without committing me to any particular act. Though I wonder how much, if any, I'll be able to extract if I hit.

Edit: Looking at that last statement, I'm rethinking.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

What CO hands call our raise to 5K? What hands do you think reraise us all in? Consider that we reaised PF, did not continuation bet on the flop and now raise him.
He could easily be taking a stab at the pot like we were debating doing on the flop.

I'm definitely not that worried about MJ here. Two checks and now the board is terrifying.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I also favor a call. Unfortunately, it screams "I'm on a draw", but you may also get MJ to come along for the ride and build the pot if you hit.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

If you raise to 5k, now your putting yourself in a position where you need to win the pot. so your pushing on the river no matter what?

The best i could put him on is KJ, AQ, KQ, QT, QJ, TJ, T9, AJ, any PP, and a total miss a very small % of the time. Basically, you can't confidently put him on a hand the way you played it so i'm jumping ship or hoping my card comes 1/3 of the time.

Very open to criticism.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

most interesting turn card in the deck. So the CO here can have KJ/J8? sometimes, two pair hands, pair+straight hands, or just be bluffing.

If he's not bluffing, then you have the problem of what cards get your paid. Some clubs, like the royal-making Kc, may utterly kill your action, as might any 8 or K. If the CO has a made straight or pair+straight hands, though, he may pay off a substantial amount on the river if you hit. Might even double you up if he bets enough. Sometimes the board pair isn't clean, either. So you have 2-7 of clubs, 6 of them, that should have good implied odds and 6 cards the may or may not give you action that complete your straight, the Kc plus the 2 board pairing clubs. MJ is still yet to act so we also have the problem of not completing the action, or having any clue on his hand range. If we call making the pot 5k and MJ moves in on us there it will be 6500 or so in the pot with another 8k to us to call making it a fold.

On the other hand if you raise the pot will be 5k plus whatever you make it, so allin is a bit of an overbet and smaller than that kinda leaves us in a weird spot as far as stack in the center-type of committedness. What would the 2 players put us on if we shove here? Possibly some range that has some monsters (tt/99 mostly?), some AQ/KQ/QJ type hands and probably a decent amount of what we have, a combo draw.

I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

The main reason we checked the flop was to see a fourth card.
We now have a big draw, but we still are an underdog, unless
co is betting something like 67c, which I doubt. I still don't
think we can discount MJ from the hand. There are three different scenarios I can construct:

1. Fold
We have invested a total of T600 into this pot. We have an
active player behind us yet to act. If we call and he raises then we're in bad shape unless we make our hand.
I believe this to be too tight a way to play the hand, but
there are some merit's to this.

2. Call
We have a big draw. We probably have at least 12 outs assuming no one flopped a set or no one else has a flush draw. An Ace on a good day might be an out. Why jeopordize
our entire stack by raising when we can see the river hopefully for the co's turn bet.

3. Raise
I think a turn push looks suspicious like we have picked up
a big draw. If co now has a straight we have no fold equity. Raising will only work if co or MJ have one pair typed hands. I don't think any good player will fold a set or two pair in this scenario. Raising may allow us to pick up the pot immeadiately, but the flipside is we may also go
broke. Raising or calling has a lot to do with your underlying styles of play and level of risk. If you wind up going all in and co flips over KJ and you miss your hand you look like an idiot. If you raise and both players fold you look like a genius.

All things considering I favor a call although it's close.

Bruce

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I fold. I've only put 3BB's in. I'll find a better spot. Too many chances I'll lose a significant amount of chips or my entire stack.

I wouldn't call because the pot it's currently laying me only 2.5-1. With implied odds, I think this call is barely justifiable. I wouldn't expect MJ to cold call behind us. He's either going to raise us out or fold and not add to our implied odds. With MJ out of this hand, I would call. With him in, I find a better spot.

I don't like a raise because I think it's hard to represent many strong hands other than what I actually have. Maybe AQ or TT. I'm putting CO on any pair here. But likely an overpair or trips. Certainly possible that he's taking a stab with an underpair but I think it's slightly less probable then an overpair. With the CO having AA,KK, or trips I'd expect him to put me to a decision that I'm not willing to call with. Again, I have to still deal with MJ and a lot of his hand range I can see him raising me out as well.

Ultimately it's still day 1. If I was online and I could buy into another tournament right away, I may consider a different approach. As it stands here, I find a different spot.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

With this draw I don't think there's anyway I'm folding this. I said raise because 1) It could win it right now because we're representing a big hand by our action so far, and 2) A lot of cards could come that will give us our hand yet kill our action on the river. This way we can some money into the pot now. And 3) if a card that may or may not give us the win (such as an A) comes we may be able to check behind on the river.
And a less probable scenario - in the event MJ has a better A we can get him out and buy ourselves 2 more outs maybe.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

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you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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I fold. I've only put 3BB's in. I'll find a better spot. Too many chances I'll lose a significant amount of chips or my entire stack.

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I think this is too tight. If MJ makes big raise, you probably have to fold. There is some possibilty you can call a small raise, depending on pot odds. However, I think you have some implied odds. If you make a flush, someone else could have a lower flush. Plus a straight, set, or 2-pair is probably going to call some bet, even with a 3-flush on the board.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

Thanks Lloyd and Sossman. I'm never going to get any work done today.
P.S. Fell free to delete this if you want.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.



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you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.


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I don't think CO is bluffing betting into 2 players on a QT93 2-flush board.

You may win the pot a lot with a raise or push, but if you are called or reraised, you are almost certainly atleast a 5-3 underdog. A straight flush draw is way behind a pair on the turn. You could get called by a pair plus flush draw, but if you get action you are probably atleast a 2-1 dog. This is too dangerous a board to semibluff at. It is too likely someone has something.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

I agree it's tight and weak. I thought long and hard though and I just can't find a line I like better. I really don't like a raise here. A call if VERY close but I just don't think we're getting paid off too much if we hit our flush or straight.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

dunnow where you got 5:1 dog vs a straight.. you're 3:1 then.

and a few people mention folding because you only invested 600, that really shouldn't be a consideration, you should just decide what the most profitable move from this point on is, regardless of what you put in already.

The pot is giving you 2.2:1 odds, or enough to make calling profitable, even if we don't get paid off more on furthur streets.. i like raising beccause it adds a new way to win the hand, i think pushing looks a bit fishy here, but i guess it could get more hands to fold than a 5k raise.. but seems like overkill.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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I just don't think we're getting paid off too much if we hit our flush or straight.

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That's why we raise now.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

This is why I advocated betting on the flop, we'd have a better idea where we stand, and we might've gotten a free card on the turn.

Instead we're stuck in a situation where we aren't really sure what to do. We've got a monster draw, that if it hits we're likely to have the best hand (straight or flush, provided the board doesn't pair)

But if we opt to raise, it will need to be to at least 4-5K, and then if we get smooth-called we must hit the river (or push with nothing if checked to) given the huge amount of chips in play.

If we get pushed against when we re-raise, are we going to just surrender half our stack, or take the risk and try to hit or go home?

If we smooth-call, as long as the SB doesn't come over the top, we're looking at a pot with 1950+1500+1500=4,950, which is half everyones starting stack.

It's likely that the CO will push all-in to try and take it down on the river, and he might be pushing into our rivered monster, so we have a shot to get all his chips.

But since this hand wasn't played as I recommended, I believe a smooth-call allows us to get away on the river with enough chips to continue playing in this tournament. But I still don't fault a re-raise, just be ready to commit all of your chips on this draw, which could've been avoided by a continuation bet on the flop.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.



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you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.


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I don't think CO is bluffing betting into 2 players on a QT93 2-flush board.

You may win the pot a lot with a raise or push, but if you are called or reraised, you are almost certainly atleast a 5-3 underdog. A straight flush draw is way behind a pair on the turn. You could get called by a pair plus flush draw, but if you get action you are probably atleast a 2-1 dog. This is too dangerous a board to semibluff at. It is too likely someone has something.

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if you lead in CO's shoes with t9s here and button shoves, you're sick

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

i advocated raise to 5k now and the last ~5k on any river. do you think that line is more likely to fold out T9?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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i advocated raise to 5k now and the last ~5k on any river. do you think that line is more likely to fold out T9?

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I think few are calling 5k to fold the river here imo.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

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if you lead in CO's shoes with t9s here and button shoves, you're sick

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Eh? I think 'oh, he picked up a draw or has AQ' and push. Other than KJ, there's nothing you have right now that the CO's behind in this situation. I assume CO's read on you is at least 'decent', and a decent player doesn't play QT/QQ/a set this way on that flop.

I think MJ can now be considered out of this hand (so much for my guess) - if you just call and he overcalls, great (because any draw he can have is second best) but it's not important. So it's you vs. the CO. It's reasonably safe to say your pair outs are nearly worthless, and also reasonably safe to say he doesn't open limp KJ, so you have 15 outs.

Folding's out of the question. Raising depends on your read, but God does this board suck for a bluff right now. I think I just call.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

So whats your play when the CO comes over the top and puts you all in?

When I put myself in the CO's shoes, if I saw your play and you raised the turn I'd be putting you all in most of the time, regardless of my cards. Your raise just doesn't add up. If I was the cutoff I'd put you on a flush draw or AQ. Both of which you'd likely fold to a push. I don't want to be in that situation so I either call or fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
 

CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.