200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

Villain is CABOWABO23. Unknown, but based on 33/18/4 over 30 hands and ALL CAPS SCREENAME I figure he is pretty aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $152.20
Hero (BB): $200
UTG: $621.10
MP: $251.70
CO: $211.90
BTN: $395

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $7</font>, BTN calls $7, SB folds, Hero calls $5

I squeeze here sometimes but didn't have good reads so I chose to just call.

Flop: ($22) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $15</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $15

Meh...standard?

Turn: ($52) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $41</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $178 and is All-In</font>

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR IN BABY

Thoughts on whole thing?

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

tbh, i usually call this PF trying to hit a flush than play it for just pair value in a multi...prolly a leak on my part...

ok as played i guess

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

The problem I see with it is that when called you are behind 90%+ of the time (unless he has precisely A7/A6 you are up against a higher kicker or 2purr) and your raise doesn't protect against more then a 5 outer if you are ahead (meaning pointless). BUT if you feel that you will not get paid off on a river spade then I have no problem with the gamble. But by the description I can't imagine you would feel this way.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

A few thoughts:

1) I am ahead here a decent % of the time.
2) I have a LITTLE fold equity vs TPBK hands.
3) I have ~ 28% equity when called by better hands**.
4) I COULD get called by worse (not likely at all but possible).

When I "add" all of that together it comes out +EV in my mind.

Is my logic true or false?

**Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,112 games 0.063 secs 33,523 games/sec

Board: Ah 8s 5c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.125% 28.13% 00.00% 594 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 71.875% 71.88% 00.00% 1518 0.00 { 88, 55, AJs+, A9s-A8s, A5s, AJo+, A9o-A8o, A5o }

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

You are very rarely ahead here and he's not calling with any hand you beat,

I think calling works best here because:

1) If youre ahead he'll probably check it down on the river
2) If you hit your FD he wont be able to put you on it (backdoor)
3) Hit the T and your hand is probably good

Unimproved i would c/f the river. Sure a passive line kinda sucks, but i dont think you have enough FE on your turn c/r AI

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

I think this is a good semi-bluff, but that is exactly what it is, a bluff you do not want a call.

This check raise shows a lot of strength. Against a thinking player you have a lot of FE against single pair hands. Against a complete unknown it has increased risk.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

To answer those...

1)If you are ahead here (which I don't doubt a decent % of time) you are crushing him. Because you have the FD covered he is drawing to AT MOST 9 outs and that is with only a handful of hands, namely 97,87,86,65. Does he really bet these hand son the turn after you check to him? Maybe...

2)I am not sure if by what you say you are inferring having FE as a good or bad thing. If infact you are beating him you obviously don't want him to fold. But again how many Ax type hands are you beating on this board. Much less then you are behind that is for sure. And you have NO FE against those hands.

3)And since we are most likely not folding out better, I don't know how this affects anything in regards for reasons to shove. Are you implying that shoving $137 into $134 pot justifies this equity calculation?

4)I guess if you feel he is quite loose he could call with one of the aforementioned hands. But given that all the money is in the pot and he wold be [knowingly?] chasing with no implied odds seems like a bit of a stretch.

I just want to say that if the board was K high instead of A high and you held KT, I would like the shove much more. You would get looser calls IMO since their is a greater chance that you are FOS with an AX hand that got stubborn. But on A high flops, people always feel that 'someone' has to have the A (obviously because more people play Ax hands then Kx hands) and are more aware of the aggression factor that coincides with that.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

I disagree with the assumption that there is NO FE against AJ+. In general calling a turn check/shove with a single pair is no good regarless of the kicker. A good thinking player should fold AJ+ a good percentage of the time.

With that being said, this guy is basically unknown here.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

To assume we have fold equity we really need some sort of history that proves he can fold TPTK type hands. put simply, unknowns dont fold TPTK to this action ever.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

ChiTown,

"Villain is CABOWABO23. Unknown, but based on 33/18/4 over 30 hands and ALL CAPS SCREENAME I figure he is pretty aggressive."

I make my posts off of what OP gives as info. My advice is never generic. Yes you are correct a thinking player could (and maybe should?) fold AJ+ here. But this villain does not fit that bill.