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-   -   On fixing leaks... (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=551497)

z28dreams 11-21-2007 02:24 PM

On fixing leaks...
 
Hi all,

So, I've finally had some time to pour more hands in, and have been frustrated by my mostly break-even play.

I decided that instead of just posting hands, I'd take a look through poker tracker and pokerEV to see if I could find what was wrong, but most of it looks pretty normal.

For those that haven't done it yet, take a look through Pokey's Pokertracker Thread.

PokerEV's graph shows that my winnings at showdown are about what they should be, but I'm losing money overall. That is, I'm losing money in pots where I didn't go to showdown but put money in. The problem is, I'm not exactly sure how to find these leaks.

Here are some critical statistics on me that may help:

(5k hand sample from this month where I'm really focusing on taking good notes and paying attention)

Basic Stats
VPIP: 18.5
PFR: 16.1
Went to SD: 20.3%
Won $ at SD: 47%
<font color=" blue">Should I be seeing more showdowns?</font>

Broken down by position:
BTN: 25/22 (+.04bb/hand)
CO: 22/21
MP: 19/18
UTG: 15/15
BB: 10/7 (-.39 bb/hand)
SB: 16/12 (-.05 bb/hand)

Aggression
<font color="blue">I also think I might be c-betting too much: </font>

First Action After a Preflop Raise:
Raise: 2.27%
Bet: 63%
<font color="blue">
(Pokey said raise+bet should be &gt; 40%. Am I way too high here?)
</font>

Aggression Factor by Street
Preflop: 5.9
Flop: 8.48
Turn: 2.86
River: 1.81

<font color=" blue">I believe my river aggression here may be too low. Probably missing a lot of value bets?</font>

An experiement
I'd like to see if I'm folding big pairs (TT+) too much overall. Could a winning player please check their stats against mine for the following:

Under the General Info tab, click the [Filters] button. Now, under -Showdown-, choose "Folded Before Showdown". Next, click the [Select Specific Hands] button on the top. Check AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT here. Press OK.

What is your total BB/hand number? I'm seeing -6.64bb/hand here. Of this 6k sample, there are 14 hands where I folded TT-AA before showdown, and 32 hands where I played TT-AA and saw a showdown. I won at showdown 17 of those 32 times.

Could someone give me comparison numbers for these big pairs?

Other ideas on what to look for might also be helpful to find spots where I'm likely ahead but ended up folding.

z28dreams 11-21-2007 02:37 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
Also, I'd like to check out went to showdown #'s on big pairs:

Under the General tab, just pick the following hands and look at the WtSD column (% went to showdown).

Here are mine: (all based on around 20-25 hands)
AA - 33%
KK - 25%
QQ - 27%
JJ - 57% (smaller sample size)
TT - 23%

Are these way too low?

udbrky 11-21-2007 03:37 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
How often do you defend your BB? The -.39 BB/hand seems to suggest you're defending light. Check out some of your hands where you lose big in the BB.

I fold BB to steal 84% and am up .14 BB/hand in the BB over about the same # of hands this month.

What's your win % on your pairs? It looks like you go to showdown a lot with JJ - almost twice as often as with the rest of your big pairs.

z28dreams 11-21-2007 03:46 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
Orange just showed me his WtSD numbers, and his percents for QQ-KK are roughly 50% higher than mine, which leads me to believe I'm leaving a lot of money on the table with overpairs.

The JJ % is probably just a sample size problem (only like 12 hands)

Babalatexi 11-21-2007 03:57 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
You don't seem to understand the importance of position enough. My VPIP on the button is a little over 30 while it's 10.5 UTG, you should raise more hands on the button and less UTG/MP. Other than that I don't know, stats only get you that far, winning is much more about playing each hand the right way and making the correct decisions depending on the situation post-flop, something stats don't really show you. Posting hands FTW.
Edit: Your flop aggression is really high, perhaps you c-bet too much in multiway pots?

udbrky 11-21-2007 04:08 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
Here are my general stats for my most played level this month, as I try to rebuild my bankroll:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2299/...4dc11f04e0.jpg

And my position stats:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2366/...10946c484e.jpg

AZplaya 11-21-2007 04:28 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
what is your W$WSF%?

mocky 11-21-2007 04:44 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
OP your flop AF is way too high i bet 90% of flops and mine is bad at 6 you must "auto" c/bet every flop? Your flop and turn AF should be closer together.
Im running at 8 PTBB/100 over last 6k (novembers) hands only at NL10 though just moved over from limit so dont wanna step up just yet.

Spurious 11-21-2007 04:50 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
I cbet most of the flops, i bet 99.8% of the flops HU.
My AF is at 7 or something. I dont think your AF on flop is too high.

I guess your postflop play sucks. You dont value bet good enough and probably fold too often, especially on the flop.

AZplaya 11-21-2007 05:10 PM

Re: On fixing leaks...
 
wow just realized sample size...lets not think too deeply on this one.


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