s915 and Brocathmel
 

Disclaimer: A lot of my knowledge of s915 is 2nd hand as I've only played ~100 hands with him.

Is there something we've all been missing? I know these guys probably aren't the same person but they seem to have one strange similarity which noone else has...

- VPIP by position - Both s915 and Brocathmel played very loose UTG and got progressively tighter until the button. Noone else I've ever seen plays like this. It's pretty obvious both guys are intelligent so I'm sure it's not by mistake.

Out of respect for s915 I won't try to break down anything else but I think fair to look at this one aspect of his (and Brocathmel's) game as it's so peculiar.

Obviously, both defend a ton from the sb/bb and have obvious "leaks" preflop and post but both are/were huge winners. They both could just be huge luckboxes but that's very close-minded and I prefer to assume that maybe they're on to something that we've been missing.

Thoughts?

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

we have these threads all the time. from derb to poet to broc. now s915. you know we have never really concluded anything worthwhile so im not sure if you are adding anything new. i think discussing it has potential to be interesting and worthwhile but weve never made much headway.

at this point i think it will be even harder to analyze these alternative (and relatively extreme) styles since we are exposed far fewer available hands than in the party days.

however, i suppose old dbs exist with a ton of hands on these guys and thats where to start. i think educated speculation has been found to be worthless at this point. if we really want to figure out the "Secret" we need to accumulate hands and data and get down to the nitty gritty and find a way to analyze where the profit actually comes from.

fwiw i was a decent winner vs poet and broc and kingkevin.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

does brocath still play on party? If so, how has he done since party stopped allowing US players?

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

Could you query VPIP by position given folded to? Compare those results to yourself. The stats you mentioned suggests a greater frequency of open raising and isolating a lot tighter than would seem (if someone is a 30/20 and 3-bet my CO raise from the button I think they have a range but it's not quite that because their VPIP given a player is in the pot is certainly different).

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

was there anything close to a general consensus as to whether DERB was actually playing a +ev style or not?

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

yea it was my understanding that brocath was not looser from utg than he was from the button. His VPIP was higher but that was only because he had many more opportunities to open raise from utg than he did from button.

In other words, there were not hands he would raise from utg but not from MP or button. Correct me if I'm wrong...

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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was there anything close to a general consensus as to whether DERB was actually playing a +ev style or not?

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I missed the whole DERB thing. Was that guy called fuktan or something?

kcht347 had the same property of playing more hands the worse position got, I think. Anyway it does indeed smack of having a large open-raising range which is unchanged as you move around the table.

But as joker says, the question is, is it a good idea?

Guy.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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Anyway it does indeed smack of having a large open-raising range which is unchanged as you move around the table.

But as joker says, the question is, is it a good idea?

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im honestly shocked that people would seriously consider this

besides being obviously wrong on a fundamental level its obviously wrong on a practical level. open up poker tracker and see how much money u make opening QJo UTG vs QJo on the button

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

People give more respect to EP raises. Are you more likely to 3-bet a LAG EP open or CO open? He can steal better from EP than the CO so he is looser there. People just go by PFR and 3-bet him in steal positions where he has strong hands and they get killed. Certain hand types also play better from an EP raise than steal raise. People will give you credit for an ace if you raise UTG, so he doesn't need to raise weak aces. He can just represent them and people will give him respect for it. blah blah blah I could write forever

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
yea it was my understanding that brocath was not looser from utg than he was from the button. His VPIP was higher but that was only because he had many more opportunities to open raise from utg than he did from button.

In other words, there were not hands he would raise from utg but not from MP or button. Correct me if I'm wrong...

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For some reason I didn't even think about that. Makes sense. I'll try and find all the Brocathmel hands in my DB and look a little deeper.

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

s915 is a insanely hot_streak winner over about 3K hands I have on him, but against me, hes getting crushed. in general hes running like 8.5BB/100 right now. i think against poor opponents a guy like this can do well, against anyone decent, he will get owned.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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Was that guy called fuktan or something?


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fuktan = PoetMagician

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kcht347 had the same property of playing more hands the worse position got, I think.

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kcht347 = Brocathmel

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Anyway it does indeed smack of having a large open-raising range which is unchanged as you move around the table. But as joker says, the question is, is it a good idea?

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Intuitively, of course not. You'd think it has to have a profound Shania effect for this type of player to win like he does. Of course, it is a high variance style so a survivorship bias is definitely possible when looking at Brocathmel/s915 (if not probable).

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
we have these threads all the time. from derb to poet to broc. now s915. you know we have never really concluded anything worthwhile so im not sure if you are adding anything new. i think discussing it has potential to be interesting and worthwhile but weve never made much headway.

at this point i think it will be even harder to analyze these alternative (and relatively extreme) styles since we are exposed far fewer available hands than in the party days.

however, i suppose old dbs exist with a ton of hands on these guys and thats where to start. i think educated speculation has been found to be worthless at this point. if we really want to figure out the "Secret" we need to accumulate hands and data and get down to the nitty gritty and find a way to analyze where the profit actually comes from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

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fwiw i was a decent winner vs poet and broc and kingkevin.

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So was I and many other 2+2ers I'm sure. With that said, I'd bet those guys crushed the average (mediocre/bad) player to a much greater degree than us.

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

"I'd bet those guys crushed the average (mediocre/bad) player to a much greater degree than us."

well, an interesting exercise would be to profile the guys broc/poet/s915 are crushing.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

Poet atleast did have a bigger openraise range on the button than utg, but not much difference from utg-mp.

I think it may be posible that he actually mixed up his play, meaning that even when he often opens Ax utg, it´s not like automatic for him, but I could be wrong.
Also think he might have paid more attenction than the average multi tabling tag, meaning his reads are better.

Think people may have overplayed vs him postflop in some spots and might also have defended their blinds or position incorrectly.

The guy definatly did some stuff that could look like clear -EV, but who doesn´t once in a while.

Had 100Kish hands on him, but can only find a db with like 45K. Anyway, he openraised a ton from the sb, probably alot more than most of us.
I have him at -0.03 in the sb, which is like extremely good, but could easily be variance.
He only folds the bb to steals 18%, but he doesn´t do too well in that spot.

I dont really think he got too far out line preflop when it looked like someone else wanted the pot unless he was in a blind.

He folded the sb 78% to steals btw. 3betting most of the time he played, but calling sometimes.

It doesn´t look like he is making that much more outside the blinds than other tags, but not sure.

However, it may cause standard tags to open less from LP when he is in the blinds, which means, he will get to play blind vs blind, where he can recoup alot of his losses.

Think he would get crushed in a game where people adjusted correctly vs his EP opens, so not really sure if it´s worth trying to copy his style if your goal is to win at high stakes.

I´d like to discuss sb play if you want to make a thread about that as I feel it´s the only preflop area in limit where I can improve alot.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also think he might have paid more attenction than the average multi tabling tag, meaning his reads are better.


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This is what separates the great players from the good. If u remember the hands played last 30 minutes and are good at using this, then it can make up for a ton of pokertheory never read or understood.

Of course some of us are like robots, playing perfect all the time, but most of us adapt to whats going on right now and are very focused sometimes and very unfocused other times. If the other player understands this, he can win a lot.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

here are the numbers i have on s915 in my current database:

15k hands. overall 54/44 2.6 AF. att to steal: 73.4; went to showdown: 42%; bb/100 = 3.82.

positional stats:
button vpip 57%; pfr 55%; raise first in 42%
cut off vpip 43%; pfr 43%; raise first in 33%
hijack vpip 41%; pfr 40%; raise first in 36%
utg vpip 40%; pfr 40%; raise first in 40%
bb vpip 64%; pfr 31%
sb vpip 66%; pfr 54%; raise first in 32% (this seems way low to me but maybe he plays me different)

i've got another 10k hands on him in another data base and he is an overall winner of 2.5bb/100 across 25k hands. now i'm fully aware of fluctuations and that the long run is much longer than most people on 2p2 think, but i wonder how long someone like this can run well and what is pushing the bounds of mathematical reality. also noteworthy on s915 is that he rarely ever strays up to 30/60. he is almost exclusively at 15/30 and 10/20 player.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

in regards to kiddo's comments: s915 does a good job mixing up how he plays things and i think you are correct his attention to hands played within the last 30 minutes allows him to take advantage of players. at one point, he donked into me on the flop heads up when i was the pfr or pf3 i think 5 times in a row. i had hands strong enough to call him down and lost the first three to top pair on the flop. he did it twice more with zero as i called him down on the 4th hand and won and waited until the river to raise him on the 5th where he folded. then almost immediately he shifted to check raising the heck out of me on the flop. as out of line as his pre flop play would be his post flop play is pretty solid and i don't see him spew very often. the only time he got out of line he had kk with the king of spades and i floped an ace high spade flush. i donked the turn and he raised. i three bet and he capped. the river brought another spade and i cr the river and he just called. but that was about the only time i've seen him go overboard.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

While we are at it, David Chiu is another player that perplexes me as to how he wins. He is a pro that is listed in red on the tables at Full Tilt. I only have 5k hands on him but his numbers are 53/26; wtsd 41% and ats of 52%. I have him as up 10bb/100 over those 5k hands. Just like s915 he plays well post flop and mixes up well how he plays hands. That notwithstanding, it is hard to believe he could sustain a long run profit with those preflop numbers.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

I would assume Chiu is bored at those stakes and playing fishy. It's not a strategy for him so much as he gets quickly bored and raises too much preflop, then uses his decent postflop play to figure things out. I haven't played with him so could be wrong but he's probably just running sick hot over that sample. Also s915's 54/44 is much hotter than Chui's 53/26. s915 plays on stars? I have no idea who you all are talking about.

-DeathDonkey

-DeathDonkey

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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I would assume Chiu is bored at those stakes and playing fishy.

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This is my impression from playing quite a bit with him the past few days.

s915 is on FT. I don't think he's *that* good, but I do think he is a winner. I think broc and poet were a whole different breed of player. They were both much better hand readers, and much trickier than s915 postflop.

s915 doesn't get out of line much, which is a flaw in his game. He's far too straightforward for how LAG he is preflop. He tends to overplay made hands, but doesn't really big street bluff. He beats the game because average players adjust terribly to him. They put in too many bets with weak hands, not enough with strong hands, end up paying him off far too often, and piss away money by trying to make moves.

I think poet and broc beat the games for more, and are far better players.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

He is a regular in the full tilt 15/30. I have about 16k hands on him and he runs 50/40. Over that sample he is a 5BB/100 winner. He really seems like DERB reincarnate. I am pretty amazed by the entire thing and share the opinion of the OP that maybe there is something we are all missing. Even if the guy plays perfect poker postflop it is hard to imagine overcoming the routine play of poor starting hands.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

"but doesn't really big street bluff"

This guy doesn't seem like the type of player who would benefit from this type of play. With PAHUD and such, your average player will see that stats and already showdown light vs. him. I would guess his "big street bluffs" get called more than most players, making them a little more -EV.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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He beats the game because average players adjust terribly to him. They put in too many bets with weak hands, not enough with strong hands, end up paying him off far too often, and piss away money by trying to make moves.

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I really think this is what it comes down to and thought the same thing with Brocath and Poet. 2+2ers would do well vs. these guys but they would just destroy the average fish who didn't adjust properly.

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

"but they would just destroy the average fish who didn't adjust properly."

ok heres what i dont understand. poet and broc didnt seem to use table selection. often i would see them at a table with 5 other tags with good stats. s915 is the same but its more pronounced bc there are far less fish in the ftp player pool. every time i look s915 is with 5 other players that, on appearance, are solid. so i ask again, who is he making money off?

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok heres what i dont understand. poet and broc didnt seem to use table selection. often i would see them at a table with 5 other tags with good stats. s915 is the same but its more pronounced bc there are far less fish in the ftp player pool. every time i look s915 is with 5 other players that, on appearance, are solid. so i ask again, who is he making money off?

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Like I said, I've only played with him (and in those games) briefly but the majority of the "TAGs" in those games aren't partiularly good and I'm not surprised if they aren't adjusting well. In fact, I'd bet most of their adjustments are hurting them more than helping.

Edit: From what I've seen s915 will often donk flops. It's pretty amazing how the TAGs how no earthly idea how to adjust to this. I'm sure its the same in many other situations.

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Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

Brocath and Poet both played around 40/30 preflop which is WAY different than 50+/40+. I can't speak for s915 but Brocath and Poet were both smart postflop also. Neither of them has folded a winner since the Louisiana Purchase, but aside from that they play pretty well. If this guy continues to play 50+/40+ I suspect he will get robbed in the long run, even against mediocre TAGs.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

surfdoc,

is that all 6 handed? 50/40?

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

David Chiu is another player I crush on a regular basis at SH HE & SH LO8 as well. He obviously can beat some opponents, but he sucks against anyone decent. He does lots of monkey stuff, makes poor preflop decisions, shows down way too light, does crap like chasing non-nut 1-way hands in O8.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
surfdoc,

is that all 6 handed? 50/40?

[/ QUOTE ]

Filtered for 4-6 players but almost all of it is 6 players.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

s915 has really beaten me up; actually he is the 3rd winningest player against me in my (fairly small FT) db, up 40 BBs over 2000 hands. I feel like I have been getting cold decked by him, putting in a lot of bets with some good second best hands. But I think I have also had trouble adjusting or have made the wrong adjustments. At this point, I consistently play rope-a-dope against him, going passive a ton of the time whether my hand has showdown value or not (i.e. if it is a draw that must improve to win). I will take A-hi to showdown if the board doesn’t come really bad—like 4 medium connected cards or 3 high cards. I don’t take K-hi to showdown as much. I also basically show down a pair.

Originally I would play back on the flop with both good made hands and draws but I found he was pretty good at reading me and 3-betting or capping when I had a draw and releasing when I had a medium-top pair kind of hand. I’m not sure if that was just bad luck and he was stronger when I was drawing and weaker when I was strong or if he is a good hand reader or if my pattern was in some way obvious.

In any case, now I usually play both kind of hands passive, raising when I hit the draw and often waiting for the turn or even the river with TP+good kicker kind of hands. With monsters, I will often play fast, however, if the board might have hit him too.

I think my style exploits, theoretically at least, his relative weakness of not being able to turn off bluffs against calls on scary boards—in my experience he will always 2-barrel and quite often 3-barrel when I should look pretty showdown bound from the flop call. It makes him think I am weak tight and a punching bag so encourages him to bluff even more than he already does. It also makes sure I don’t get outplayed and fold a winner. But like I said, all that is only theoretical; he has beaten me pretty soundly over the short term.

I think my style gives up a lot of equity because what can be really profitable playing against LAGs is getting several bets in with pretty good hands when they goes to war with less. Also my passivity gives up the chance to tilt him. Playing in this style where I am constantly ceding him the initiative also does not feel great and I risk tilting myself. Last, I feel he is stealing more than his fair share against me, especially from the small blind vs. the big blind. It feels a little too like fit or fold against him.

Another potential leak in my game is that I have taken to just calling vs. his small blind raises with good (but not great) hands, like QJs, or A7, hands that clearly destroy his range. In my experience, I gain a decent bit of fold equity when I three-bet his B or CO raise from the SB but a lot less when I 3-bet him out of the Big blind vs. his SB steal. So I don’t want to bloat the pot PF and fold the winner post-flop. I also want him to be bluffing into smaller pots, getting worse odds on the bluff.

I switch gears when the pot is 3-handed, trying my best to isolate villain. And I will aggressively re-raise from button or small blind to isolate his steal.

Here are some sample hands culled from different sessions but the dynamic from session to session has been consistent imo:
1. I open utg with 99, a 38/16/.9 cold calls in CO, villain calls in BB. F=JxTc3c. I would probably call all the way to showdown if it was heads up.
2. He opens in SB. I call with K6. F=3hJs4h. Bet, call. T=7s. Bet call. River=Qx. He Checks, I check back.
3. He opens in small blind. I call with QcJc. F=As6s3h. He bets, I fold.
4. He opens in small blind. I call with Ad3d. F=4c6c6h. He bets, I call. T=3c. He bets, I call. R=9s. He checks, I bet. This turn seems like an easy raise.
5. He opens in small blind. I call in BB with 54. F=73cTc. Bet, call. Turn=9d. Bet, fold.
6. I open utg with KcJd. He 3 bets in BB. F=6s6c4c. He bets, I call. T=As. He bets, I call. R=Tc. He checks, I check.
7. He opens on B, I 3-bet with Ks9s from sb. F=8c5h9c. I bet, he raises, I 3 bet, he call. T=Ts. Bet, call. R=4s. I bet, he folds.
8. He opens in SB. I call with JsTc. F=9h8d5h. He bets, I call. T=6c. He bets, I call. R=3c. He checks, I bet.
9. Tag opens in CO, villain three bets in SB, I cap with AcKs, CO folds. F=6cAd8c. Check, bet, raise, I just call. T=9h. He leads, I raise, he folds.
10. I open utg with AcJc. He calls in BB. F=9hKcJs. He checkraises and I just call. T=Ah. He checks, I bet, he folds.
11. He opens in SB. I call with Ac8c. F=Qd5hAd. He bets, I call. T=Th. He bets, I call. R=Qs. He bets, I call.
12. He opens in CO, I 3-bet with AcQs on B. F=7c8dTd. He checkraises, I call. T=Jh. Bet call. R=Th. Bet, call.

I realize this format of the hands might not be very conducive for discussion and I would happily pull some out for their own threads, but I am more interested in a general discussion of my overall strategy against this type of opponent. I also hope it’s not problematic posting hands with someone else’s screen name; I really am more interested in learning better counter strategies to a type of player (pretty extreme LAGs who are thinking and decent hand readers).

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

I don't think anyone with 50VPIP is a winner. It just can't be possible, unless no one adjusts to them.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

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I don't think anyone with 50VPIP is a winner. It just can't be possible, unless no one adjusts to them.

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Well that's silly, of course a 50 VPIP can be a winner, there's just no way they wouldn't win more playing fewer hands.

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

huh why of course? I also think its probably technically not possible to be 50VIP (6max) and a winner long term. Against decent opponents you will be playing hands as a dog or of equal value most of the time.

50vip is a lot of hands

Re: s915 and Brocathmel
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone with 50VPIP is a winner. It just can't be possible, unless no one adjusts to them.

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I agree. He makes money b/c his opponents are bad. For example not raising him PF with a wide range (that includes for example hands like A7o or 98s etc) especially when he is looser on EP and you can have position on him.
Also I don't understand why you will play passively post flop when he loves to SD. IMO you should play your bottom pair like the nuts and very rarely semibluff but more frequently make cold bluffs (still rarely just more often than semis)