*** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

NFL Week 9, Early Game thread:

CAR @ TEN
GB @ KC
CIN @ BUF
SD @ MIN
ARI @ TB
DEN @ DET
JAC @ NO
SF @ ATL
WAS @ NYJ

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

wow...on the ball this week

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I thought this was useful in past weeks so:

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/3...melinesal3.jpg

plz to be noting games are not actually at 10 pm pacific

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm thinking about GB ML, Jax +3.5, and Tampa -3.5, but I usually don't bet until later in the week. Anyone think any of JAX, WAS, or TAM will come down to 3?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I kind of like Tampa -3.5, though would obviously like it more if it moved to -3, and kind of like Minnesota if the line moves to +7.5. San Diego seems like they may be a BSP pick this week, from talking to friends everyone thinks they are a lock.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

How can the Packs be the dog going into this Sunday against the Chiefs? (besides AFC>NFC meow chow blah blah) Although GB still hasn't looked stellar, they seem like they have the momentum going into KC.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Dude, every week we go through this. KC and Denver get those type of lines cause of their homefield. GB has a tough game on their hands and they just escaped with a win in mile high.

My question is wtf is going on with the Cincy Line. I was all ready to put them in a wong teaser when they were +1.5, but some moron on here said wait till the end of the week to make your wong bets. Now the line -1 Cincy?

How can a line move that much? Did the qb announcement for Clemens cause the line change? Is someone hurt? [censored].

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

My question is wtf is going on with the Cincy Line. I was all ready to put them in a wong teaser when they were +1.5, but some moron on here said wait till the end of the week to make your wong bets. Now the line -1 Cincy?

How can a line move that much? Did the qb announcement for Clemens cause the line change? Is someone hurt? [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the Bengals are playing the Bills on Sunday, I doubt that the Jets' quarterback change had an effect on their line.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

lol, ok.

but why the movement across the zero? Is there any reason the bills went from slight favs to slight dogs? I dont see any key injury info yet? That combined with last week when cincy had a home loss and bills had an away win it i thought it would be bills +2 to +3.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Yeah that is strange. I saw Buffalo -3 on Sunday night. I don't really like that matchup for the Bills though. Their defense is average in the sense that they'll get scored on by good offenses & keep bad offenses in check. I'm not sure the Bills offense can score 24+ against any defense right now. They will probably need to in this game barring turnovers.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm not 100% sure about the line movement, but I hope it keeps moving. I love Buffalo as a home dog here. +1.5 is available on Bodog now, I'm gonna hold out for a while longer.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I usually crunch some numbers before giving my take on games but I am liking some spreads so far.

I like Buffalo, they have treated me well in the past few weeks. Although their offense is not as strong, they are confident at home and will be able to stop the struggling Bengals.

I also like Carolina. I think Tennesse has been doing well against the spread not covering only 2 times (last week one of them). This puts them in an overstated position. Carolina will step up or at least keep it a field goal away.

I will provide in depth analysis of games in my blog. Stay tuned, I will post a review of my results in this thread too!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

The difference between Bills +1 and Bills -1 is not that big of a move considering that the game will almost never end in a tie. Very few games are decided by 1 points.

Yes, I know 2 Bills games have been decided by a point this season...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

god the public is in love with the chargers this week. they are wongable but most everyone is picking them.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
god the public is in love with the chargers this week. they are wongable but most everyone is picking them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't ask me why. I'm a Charger fan and we're onto our 3rd string nose tackle, I believe. We are going to have problems with Peterson.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Marcus Stroud was just suspended for four games. Might be a good time to lock in New Orleans -3 before it moves.

Jacksonville did sign Grady Jackson yesterday, dunno if he's expected to play as soon as Sunday or not.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Am I missing something here? Why is GB a dog against KC and why are they at +108?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

KC is a very tough place to play.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing something here? Why is GB a dog against KC and why are they at +108?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
How can the Packs be the dog going into this Sunday against the Chiefs? (besides AFC>NFC meow chow blah blah) Although GB still hasn't looked stellar, they seem like they have the momentum going into KC.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, every week we go through this. KC and Denver get those type of lines cause of their homefield. GB has a tough game on their hands and they just escaped with a win in mile high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Well that's a pretty stupid reason imo

I'm on GB ML at +127 for 2.5 units

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well that's a pretty stupid reason imo

I'm on GB ML at +127 for 2.5 units

[/ QUOTE ]

You are missing that Vegas bookmakers are experts that pick these spreads for casinos who make millions of dollars doing this, and you do not.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Meh, whatever. KC isn't as good as they've been in previous years, and GB is better than they've been in previous years. GB is a much better team this year and I think that for KC to be favorites just because they're at home is stupid.

I don't care who makes what money, to me that is stupid.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

So the fact that KC is 4-3 this year, 15-4 at home vs. 8-12 on the road over the last three seasons (including 2-1 this year), has the best home record of any team since 1990, and is on top of their division is meaningless to you?

Don't get me wrong, I can be convinced here. But "GB is better than they have been and KC isn't as good as they have been" isn't good enough a reason to cut it.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the fact that KC is 4-3 this year, 15-4 at home vs. 8-12 on the road over the last three seasons (including 2-1 this year), has the best home record of any team since 1990, and is on top of their division is meaningless to you?


[/ QUOTE ]

For this game, yes. Now if they're playing, say, the Browns, then Id completely understand if they're favorites.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't ask me why. I'm a Charger fan and we're onto our 3rd string nose tackle, I believe. We are going to have problems with Peterson.

[/ QUOTE ]
I take this back. Jamal Williams appears to be starting this week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

http://www.sagestats.com/img/graph/s...c4c7089d7f.pngSageStats ensign_lee

YTD: 19-26-2
Units Won: -12.15

(one of my losing 3 unit teasers hasn't updated yet)

~~~
Allrighty; we've hit past the halfway mark in the season and I'm down 12 units. Weeeh. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Well, I guess it could be worse. I could be down my entire bankroll and be down 100 units.

Okey doke: on to the games:

Parlay: Jacksonville M/L AND Under 40 (+427)
3 units at BetTrojan

I don't normally do parlays, but in this instance, I think it's worth it. If Jacksonville wins (and I think they will), this game will more than likely go under. So instead of taking the +170's hanging around, I'll take +427 and lose all the times that Jacksonville wins a shootout instead. Honestly, for Jacksonville to win this game, they'll need to dominate New Orleans's offense, and if that happens, this game should stay under 40. I'm willing to take that risk.

This game should be more at pk, in my opinion. Yes, the Saints have been doing well lately; but look at the last three teams that they've played: none are known for having the dominant defensive lines that Jacksonville has. I really think that the Jacksonville defense will be able to contain the offense of New Orleans and that the three back tandem of the Jags will be able to run at will on the Saints D. Hopefully, they follow the gameplan that they normally employ against the Colts: don't let the other offense on the field; rip it up on D. Heck, with the way I have this bet aligned, they only have to accomplish this once in every 4 times to even be +EV. I honestly think they'll do it more than half the time, so yeah.

Tennessee Titans -4 (-110)
3 units at JustBet

David Carr is starting? That's really all I need to know. I hate the Titans with a passion, but think that almost any team in the NFL can beat a team led by David Carr. Plus, Jeff Fisher played with David Carr in the division for the last 5 years; I think he gameplan to stop the dinks and dunks which are all Carr really can perform well. Much as it pains me, I think the Titans will be able to take care of business here. Plus, this goes back to the whole AFC > NFC South angle.

Denver/Detroit UNDER 45.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
This total seems really high for me, especially when considering that the strength of Detroit's offense is passing, which is what Denver is actually good at stopping...well, somewhat. And if Detroit comes out running all the time, the clock will continue to grind. Add in the fact that Denver seems to be unable to score in the same bunches they used to, and I really think that this under has a good shot at coming in.

San Francisco Moneyline (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Atlanta is laying points to someone? You're kidding. I don't care how much San Francisco has been sucking; They win this game about half the time; getting +170 is definitely a +EV proposition.

Seriously, Atlanta is laying points to someone?

Denver Broncos +3 (-115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Lions offensive strength (passing) will walk right into the Broncos defense strength (passing). And I don't think that the Lions are truly versatile enough to overcome this Broncos squad.

Green Bay Moneyline (+115)
1 unit at BetTrojan
When I first saw this line, I stayed away because I thought "duh. Green Bay.", which usually means the public will be all over it and that the play is doomed. But the public is only on it at around a 60/40 clip, which is surprising to me. I think GB is the better team here, and that the Chiefs are going to have trouble trying to keep the Green Bay defense from penetrating the backfield. If the Chiefs QB has to throw to dig his team out of a hole, that will be playing right to the strength of a good GB defense. On the other hand, I feel that GB is up to the task of scoring on the Chiefs defense; I guess we'll see.

3 Team 7 point teaser (+150) - 3 units at BetTrojan
Green Bay +9
Arizona +10.5
San Francisco +10.5

The opponents in this are, in order: KC, TB, ATL. Not exactly known for being offensive powerhouses (KC in the past, but not so much this year). I think getting the points in these matchups will be very valuable, and should the visiting team not win, they shouldn't get blown out. Let's see what happens.

~~~
Allrighty; there's what I've got so far and my reasoning for them. Follow them if you want; fade them if you wish. Have fun y'all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Arizona Cardinals M/L (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Forgot one:

This is based purely on the Pinnacle leans + theGreek lean. They're holding -113 and -125, respectively, while most of the rest of the books are holding -110. Huh. Plus, for some reason or other, it seems like around 65% of the bets are on Tampa. I may increase this to two units later, depending on line moves; we'll see. For now, one unit.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arizona Cardinals M/L (+170)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Forgot one:

This is based purely on the Pinnacle leans + theGreek lean. They're holding -113 and -125, respectively, while most of the rest of the books are holding -110. Huh. Plus, for some reason or other, it seems like around 65% of the bets are on Tampa. I may increase this to two units later, depending on line moves; we'll see. For now, one unit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have Bucs here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Min +7.5 available at bodog

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Inimical NFL Slgorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates

out of town so don't have my record
down almost 4 units on over 30 bet

big weekend
Jets +3.5 -105 BetOnline
49ers +3.5 -110 5dimes
Bengals -1 -105 5dimes
Vikings +7 -100 BetOnline
Colts +6 -110 BetJamaica
Cowboys -3 -120 5dimes
Seattle +2 -110 Bodog

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Buying back my Green Bay bet with

Kansas City -2.5 (-110)
1 unit at BetTrojan

The line movement on this game has made me nervous. Now, Pinnacle and theGreek both hold leans against me. Yes, i know that I will lose 2 units if KC wins by 1 or 2. Hopefully, that doesn't happen.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Early game picks:
Green Bay +120 ML, to win 1u
Detroit -2.5 -115, to win 2u
Green Bay as parts of various wong teasers

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Jets +4 easy money

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

JAX vs. NO under 40 1.1u to win 1u.
SF vs. ATL under 37 1.1u to win 1u.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Had a pretty good year so far, and been wanting to start keeping better records. I figured if I start posting my picks on here it'll make me keep up with it better, so here goes:

NYJ +3.5 to win 2u
MIN +7 2u
TB -3 -120 (bought 1/2 point) 1.5u
DEN ML 1u to win 1.25
NE @ IND o56.5 1.65u to win 1.5 (only late game bet I have, so threw it in here)

idk if people keep track of their parlays on here, but figured I'd post mine:

NYJ +3.5, TB -3, MIN +7 - 0.5u to win 3u

same but with DEN ML - 0.5u to win ~8u

gl everyone with all your picks.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

NO -3.5
Minnesota +7.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Am I missing something here? Why is GB a dog against KC and why are they at +108?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
How can the Packs be the dog going into this Sunday against the Chiefs? (besides AFC>NFC meow chow blah blah) Although GB still hasn't looked stellar, they seem like they have the momentum going into KC.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, every week we go through this. KC and Denver get those type of lines cause of their homefield. GB has a tough game on their hands and they just escaped with a win in mile high.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Well that's a pretty stupid reason imo

I'm on GB ML at +127 for 2.5 units

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Its gonna be close.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

also, denver killed me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Had a pretty good year so far, and been wanting to start keeping better records. I figured if I start posting my picks on here it'll make me keep up with it better, so here goes:

NYJ +3.5 to win 2u W
MIN +7 2u W
TB -3 -120 (bought 1/2 point) 1.5u W
DEN ML 1u to win 1.25 L
NE @ IND o56.5 1.65u to win 1.5 (only late game bet I have, so threw it in here)

idk if people keep track of their parlays on here, but figured I'd post mine:

NYJ +3.5, TB -3, MIN +7 - 0.5u to win 3u W

same but with DEN ML - 0.5u to win ~8u

gl everyone with all your picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice start to the day, 3-1 +4.5u, plus the one parlay so doing quick math while watching the game, +7u for the morning games. Hopefully NE and IND can get me another 1.5 [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/04/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

No NateDog this week? Chargers were a HUUUUUUUUGE bsp pick.