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-   -   flopped a pair+fd (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=484476)

inferno 08-23-2007 08:14 AM

flopped a pair+fd
 
Villian is 36/12 I hit a very good flop whats my play. Just call and hope for the flush to hit or put pressure on villian?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $158.75
MP: $68.85
CO: $100.00
Button: $113.15
SB: $188.45
BB: $84.00

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, SB calls $3.50, BB folds.

Flop: ($9.00) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#FF0000">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#FF0000">SB raises to $12</font>, Hero ...

Dazarath 08-23-2007 09:46 AM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
This depends on whether you think SB CR min-raises with a weak hand that he will fold, or if he really likes his hand. If it's the 1st, 3-bet to maybe 42. If it's the 2nd, thank him for letting you draw cheaply with position and try to stack him when you make your draw. One thing I see a lot of people do incorrectly is jam combo draws when they have no FE and they're getting great odds to draw. Combo draws have good equity against your opponent's likely range, but not like 50%+ equity against a range where they like their hand. It's true that in a lot of these situations, because of the dead money in the pot, it's still +EV to get it AI, but it's even more +EV to get it in when you make your draw and save money when you miss. If SB would play QJ or TT in this donkish manner, do you really think he's going to fold when a 3rd club falls? I doubt it.

KingOtter 08-23-2007 11:42 AM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
omg, he c/r's and gives you perfect odds for just about any hand that you could possibly hold.

If you call the pot is $33, you have $80 behind. He has you covered... any raise here will commit you to the pot... I'd just call and see what the turn brings.

gharp 08-23-2007 12:15 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
I'd just call too. If I were out of position, I'd think about getting it in now. But being in position makes it easier to extract more if you hit.

AZK 08-23-2007 12:32 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
not really. its not like a well diguised draw. what do you think he is going to put you on when the turn is a club and he checks or bets small with his ace and you raise....

gregorio 08-23-2007 12:38 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
So, AZK, do you 3-bet, or are you just saying he prolly wont get paid off big if he hits?

Grunch 08-23-2007 01:20 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
I push here.

Edit: A bit more on this, the push would be sexier if we had TP along with our NFD. But we have what we have. As it is, when we get called there's almost no chance that we're ahead. Even still pushing is +EV because we have quite a lot of equity, and we end up only needing a very small amount of Fold Equity in order for us to be +EV with the push. Calling however leaves us in a Reverse Implied odds situation where we will keep calling off chips with the 2nd best hand pretty often, and when we finally improve we'll get almost nothing more.

Here's something I wrote a while ago about determining how much FE you need to push a draw profitably. It seemed to confuse more people than it helped, but hey it's all I got. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (linky)


gharp 08-23-2007 01:37 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
[ QUOTE ]
not really. its not like a well diguised draw. what do you think he is going to put you on when the turn is a club and he checks or bets small with his ace and you raise....

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, fair enough. FWIW, I didn't mean to imply that your position would allow you to bust him every time the flush came in, just that you'd make more money on average than you would OOP. I suppose the real argument is 'would you make more money on average by pushing or 3-betting'?

For me, having the ability to put villain to some uncomfortable decisions about betting the turn (plus the tiny bet size) makes me feel better about calling here. It also gives you the option to take a free card if he checks the turn. But I'm definitely interested in hearing about how other people play this...

inferno 08-24-2007 01:53 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
[ QUOTE ]
I push here.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you would push 100bb in this pot right on that spot or just raise pot ?

Grunch 08-24-2007 02:16 PM

Re: flopped a pair+fd
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I push here.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you would push 100bb in this pot right on that spot or just raise pot ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we were to make a pot sized raise that would mean making it 48 to go. If called, that leaves the pot at about 100 with about 50 remaining behind. That's not a good situation to be in. If you bet all-in on the turn, you're offering the opponent 3:1 to call which he certainly will do, and be correct in doing so. Which means you'll be making a -EV bet most of the time on the turn.

So I make the flop 100 to go instead.


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