Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

A double top is an extremely strong pattern too!

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

[ QUOTE ]
Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything. You should rather sit on the sidelines if you think there is a chance of a serious retracement, IMO, and wait to buy EUR/USD cheap if that happens.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

Weren't inflation numbers good? And credit crunch is continuing onward? Thus a Fed rate cut in the short-term is becoming more likely? Which would in turn hurt the dollar more?

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

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Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

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Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

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i'm short GBP/CAD because i agree with your assessment. I just think the USD is far from the optimal currency to be long.

As for the EUR, im short EUR/CHF... not that much though. Most of my long CHF comes from the USD. Overall my portfolio is almost all short the USD though, and has been for a while. Having the dollar long as part of your portfolio is at best a sacrifice of optimality and at worse a disaster IMO.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

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Weren't inflation numbers good? And credit crunch is continuing onward? Thus a Fed rate cut in the short-term is becoming more likely? Which would in turn hurt the dollar more?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's right. plus the dollar is screwed mid-long range regardless unless they raise rates to save it.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

Uh oh. PBOC's Yi out with the same comments that Cheng came out with last week. Damn, they are out to get me.

This isn't good. I may have gotten too greedy here. Putting a tight stop on this one at 1.4690.

As for all the other reasons posted, you guys said the same thing last week, LOL.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh oh. PBOC's Yi out with the same comments that Cheng came out with last week. Damn, they are out to get me.

This isn't good. I may have gotten too greedy here. Putting a tight stop on this one at 1.4690.

As for all the other reasons posted, you guys said the same thing last week, LOL.

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there is reason for that.

the USD/EUR pair only appreciated 1.69% in this time frame whereas the USD/GBP appreciated 2.48%.

4.5pips spread or not, you would have made far more money.

Barron

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh oh. PBOC's Yi out with the same comments that Cheng came out with last week. Damn, they are out to get me.

This isn't good. I may have gotten too greedy here. Putting a tight stop on this one at 1.4690.

As for all the other reasons posted, you guys said the same thing last week, LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is reason for that.

the USD/EUR pair only appreciated 1.69% in this time frame whereas the USD/GBP appreciated 2.48%.

4.5pips spread or not, you would have made far more money.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if it makes you feel any better, I cut it breakeven, so I didn't make ANY money, LOL.

I'm looking for a possible breakout for the EUR/USD to the upside this week. Got 3 lots long the Euro hoping I can reverse it on a breakout. Might be a little thin on the volume this week and ripe for some exaggerated moves, especially if it takes out stops in the 1.4750 range. If this happens I'm flipping my Euro position, hopefully in the 1.4775 range and adding 3 more if it crosses 1.48.

As for the Pound, like I said, I'm just not as familiar with it. Yes, I likely could have made more, but I could also have made even more with the AUD/USD pair. I just don't have as good a grasp of the fundamentals and flow of the pound or the Aussie dollar.

I did think about diving in on the Pound last week though when I saw a couple of banks revising their rate cut scenario for the BoE. But I passed.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

Ok, we got the EUR/USD breakout to the upside. Sold my 3 lots for +125 pips each, +375 pips profit total.

Flipped to 3 long dollar lots at 1.4775. Laddering in for a total position of 10 lots.

Looks like an exaggerated move on rumor. Downside looks to be contained around 1.50. At that point, I think we definitely see central bank intervention. Should be a good risk/reward position.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

Ok, looks like the 1.50 level held. Time for some profit.

Looking like the dollar may come back and test the 1.45 level. I lightened up a little on Friday afternoon, but still got 6 lots.

Also, looking to get in on the AUD/JPY pair if it drops back toward 96.00. Anyone got any advice on this pair? I'm not really familiar with it, but I've been researching it this week. If the dollar starts weakening substantially, commodities should benefit. Commodity stocks have looked pretty strong this week. Even if US slows, commodities should still be in demand worldwide. Interest rates in Aus don't look to be coming down anytime soon.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

One thing to consider in the context of the Euro is that the member states are all entering very different stages in the business cycle, have rapidly diverging domestic economic conditions especially as regards inflation and yet the Euro CB must adopt a monetary policy that keeps all member states happy.

What makes the Euro different to other currencies is that it is much much more vulnerable to political collapse than other currencies because it is a political creation. How you price this is into trades and positions I am uncertain, but my instinct is that the risks I have mentioned above are not in general fully accounted for in currency markets.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

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Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

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i'm short GBP/CAD because i agree with your assessment. I just think the USD is far from the optimal currency to be long.

As for the EUR, im short EUR/CHF... not that much though. Most of my long CHF comes from the USD. Overall my portfolio is almost all short the USD though, and has been for a while. Having the dollar long as part of your portfolio is at best a sacrifice of optimality and at worse a disaster IMO.

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Short eurchf has been a debacle position the past few days.

What sort of time horizon do you have? What are your profit and s/l levels in eurchf?

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, looks like the 1.50 level held. Time for some profit.

Looking like the dollar may come back and test the 1.45 level. I lightened up a little on Friday afternoon, but still got 6 lots.

Also, looking to get in on the AUD/JPY pair if it drops back toward 96.00. Anyone got any advice on this pair? I'm not really familiar with it, but I've been researching it this week. If the dollar starts weakening substantially, commodities should benefit. Commodity stocks have looked pretty strong this week. Even if US slows, commodities should still be in demand worldwide. Interest rates in Aus don't look to be coming down anytime soon.

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AUDJPY is a classic carry trade whose interday movements are determined almost entirely by the level of risk aversion in the investor community. If you think global equity markets in for some more rough times, do not buy AUDJPY.

Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar