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-   -   TT, fold right? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=556125)

ironlion69 11-28-2007 01:43 AM

TT, fold right?
 
His raise is very interesting. He's a complete unknown so it was really difficult to call. But does he ever play an overpair like this? Thats what I'm not sure of. A raise like that w/ an overpair just doesn't really make much sense. But obviously, that's what I put him on. I think it was the right fold. do you guys?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($24.50)
SB ($26.10)
BB ($23.05)
UTG ($43.10)
Hero ($46.65)
CO ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]], T[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]].
1 fold</font>, Hero raises to $0.85</font>, CO raises to $2.9</font>, 3 folds</font>, Hero calls $2.05.

Flop: ($6.15) 7[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]], 9[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]], 2[[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] (2 players)</font>
Hero bets $4.25</font>, CO raises to $18.9</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $29.30

Carte Blanche 11-28-2007 02:13 AM

Re: TT, fold right?
 
Im new to posting strategy, but Ill give it a shot, if Im wrong Ill learn something as well.

Its hard to know what to do without a read. I think this is a very bad spot to donk out vs an unknown. He might push with a draw or, just cause your donk looks like a weak made hand or a draw.
If hes cont. bet alot Id CR AI, but if he is the passive type I like the way you played it. I think youll see big pairs here more often than not.

mojed 11-28-2007 02:44 AM

Re: TT, fold right?
 
I think he often plays an overpair like this. AKdd and AQdd are also in his range, and the odd AK, AQ getting aggro at your donk bet.

So lets see, JJ+ is 24 hands against which we have ~9% equity, AKdd and AQdd (and TT) make up 3 hands where it's a flip, and even if he plays half his remaining AK/AQ this way its 15 hands against which we have 75% equity. I fold. I think, lets stove it:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.534% 33.20% 01.34% 23875142 960799.50 { TdTs }
Hand 1: 65.466% 64.13% 01.34% 46120027 960799.50 { TT+, AKs, AdQd, AKo }

Yeah it's just a fold (given dead money) and that's with a fairly liberal range of semibluffs with AK for villain.

Aceium 11-28-2007 02:45 AM

Re: TT, fold right?
 
This is a pretty safe flop for your hand. If you check and call a bet you will still not really know where you are in the hand. But you have a lot more information on the strength of villan's hand if you lead into him. You're showing that this board does not scare you. When villan raises you here - you should be much more inclined to believe that villan has you beat.

I don't know how often I've advocated making a donk bet. I'd like to hear other people's advice as well.

orange 11-28-2007 02:46 AM

Re: TT, fold right?
 
check flop, sometimes call one street and c/f the turn. he's not doubling with many hands you beat but he will fire the flop with stuff like AK.

tweak 11-28-2007 02:47 AM

Re: TT, fold right?
 
Without info on Villain I think you are dead right to fold. Keep an eye on him and see how he plays.


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