Variance
 

This question is pretty vague and possibly dumb - sorry in advance.

How long til you know whether your trading results are a result of variance or acumen?

I've been daytrading options lately with good results. I'm nowhere near knowing whether it's variance at this point, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

2 years? 5? NEVER?!?!11

Re: Variance
 

most of us wont live long enough to ever know.

Re: Variance
 

i have no idea, but it would depend on things like your trading frequency, the securities you're trading, and all kinds of other stuff. just like in poker, there's no hard rules.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
most of us wont live long enough to ever know.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's basically it.

A lot depends upon the system you use and the exptancy it produces coupled with the frequency you trade and the % of trades you expect to be profitable.

daytrading 200 scalp trades per day with a 75% success rate will probably show less variance over time than trend following with a 33% success rate and making a dozen or so round-trips per year.

Both systems can have the same expectancy for each unit risked, as the longer-term system can sometimes return huges multiples of the initial risk, although it will probably show more variance.

Re: Variance
 

if you have to ask, you should save your money.

Re: Variance
 

I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

The primary goal of a trader is to become the best trader he can be. Money will follow.

Too many traders bust out trying to make money.

Re: Variance
 

very few maCe it in day trading due to the fact that it's difficuIt and nearIy impossibIe to determine if there's EV in each trade made....much of it in the ST is variance but in the Iong term they AII go broCe....]ust IiCe in poCer...those who pIay every hand wiII win once in a whiIe but they aIways go broCe sooner or Iater...
....my advice.....pIay a tighter game.....study up on VaIue investing and bet with the best.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
very few maCe it in day trading due to the fact that it's difficuIt and nearIy impossibIe to determine if there's EV in each trade made....much of it in the ST is variance but in the Iong term they AII go broCe....]ust IiCe in poCer...those who pIay every hand wiII win once in a whiIe but they aIways go broCe sooner or Iater...
....my advice.....pIay a tighter game.....study up on VaIue investing and bet with the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I value invest but I also think there's value in trading. The market's not as efficient as people think.

Re: Variance
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care if I get rich via luck or skill.

[/ QUOTE ]

The primary goal of a trader is to become the best trader he can be. Money will follow.

[/ QUOTE ]
This concept obviously apply to any and everything in this world.