Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely. He is a horrible player. Probably running really well.

The real question is: are you suggesting he is actually good? He is so bad it's not even a question. Maybe you have not seen him play.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I haven't seen him play, so I can't really judge. All I can say is that I have run in to similar players (at least it sounds similar) that where consistant winners. And I'm not ready to write a statistically proven big winner over many hands off as a fluke, just because he dosn't subscribe to 2+2 dogma. I would rather see if there is anything to learn from him...

Read the thread I posted above. And if you don't know who Angelina is, ask David or Mason.

Re: DERB
 

You're right, my downswing has not been nearly as long as this nutbars hot run. I'm not 100% sure of who you are talking about either so I can't really voice my opinions on his play. Is it impossible that he is just running sickly lucky? Using team play/hand sharing? Is he sucking off the CEO of partypoker to have his underdogs hold up more often? All I know is there are a LOT of players who seem to be doing very well for extended periods of time who have no right winning whatsoever. Sick game sometimes.

PokerPrince

Re: DERB
 

I was playing with Angelina when there were 2 games on Paradise. She's very tight and very aggressive. This player plays twice as many hands.

And these stats are filtered for 7+, not shorthanded.

I like your ideas in the dongbang thread. I know that story fairly well. I know a friend that has played with him live. I believe he busted in the stars 1-2 game though. Don't have enough experience to comment.

The mistake players including myself make is that they see players playing too many hands preflop and they assume they are raising turns light, when they may not be at all.

Re: DERB
 

If you can't get Excel to do what you want, if you send me a sample of the data and what you are trying to do with it, I can write something up in Perl to convert it to comma separated or something like that.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you can't get Excel to do what you want, if you send me a sample of the data and what you are trying to do with it, I can write something up in Perl to convert it to comma separated or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome! PM me your email address

-Barron

A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Enon

Re: A DERB hand
 

he river g00t.

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

Why the delete?

- Jags

AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

I can't believe that people on 2+2 would basically accuse another player of cheating, just because they don't subscribe to all 2+2 theories as Rigoletto points out, and the player happens to win some money playing poker. There have been no hands posted to question his play (to show either collusion or playing with a bot), and no evidence of any type to indicate anything dishonest.

I'm not going to post on 2+2 anymore. I'm sure I will have occasion to see 2+2ers online and playing poker, and will communicate that way. I will still host my PP 15-30 prvt table for those who want to play and shoot the bull.

I've just had enough of certain posters and a general arrogant atmosphere on 2+2 that I can live without. Perhaps I am part of the cause, and for that I am sorry.

I wish you all the best, and thank you for all the good times, poker insight, and laughs.

TSP

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that people on 2+2 would basically accuse another player of cheating, just because they don't subscribe to all 2+2 theories as Rigoletto points out, and the player happens to win some money playing poker. There have been no hands posted to question his play (to show either collusion or playing with a bot), and no evidence of any type to indicate anything dishonest.

I'm not going to post on 2+2 anymore. I'm sure I will have occasion to see 2+2ers online and playing poker, and will communicate that way. I will still host my PP 15-30 prvt table for those who want to play and shoot the bull.

I've just had enough of certain posters and a general arrogant atmosphere on 2+2 that I can live without. Perhaps I am part of the cause, and for that I am sorry.

I wish you all the best, and thank you for all the good times, poker insight, and laughs.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, nobody is saying for sure he's cheating.

the only reason i want to analyze the play is to see if we can actually learn from this guy. makes sense when somebody single handedly shatters your comfy little reality by playing 2x the # of hands you play and winning more/100 hands.

however, it also makes sense that since it (may turn out to be) so unlikely that there may be another explanation...it may be cheating...but thats not the same as somebody saying, "he's cheating, thats it."

im curious to learn how he does so damn well over so many hands.
-Barron

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

I'm setting the over under for TSP's next post at 48 hours. Any takers [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

Sorry bout that.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:: DERB raisees in CO, button 3 bets, BB calls, DERB caps

Flop: (1.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
BB checks, DERB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, DERB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB caps</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (15.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB

DERB shows A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

Even if this post was made with or contains the cheating accusations, I don't see a reason to leave 2+2 over it. I think everyone should be glad this was posted. It incites discussion about a winnning loose-agro style of play, it teaches about the personality and mentality of people I am learning with, and maybe there is something fishy. The arrogant atmosphere doesn't deplete the information you can learn, it just switches it around a bit.

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry bout that.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:: DERB raisees in CO, button 3 bets, BB calls, DERB caps

Flop: (1.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
BB checks, DERB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, DERB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB caps</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (15.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB

DERB shows A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is so rediculous about this hand? When button 3bets preflop how many hands have a 7 in them besides 77? DERB probably puts button on another AK and thinks hes freerolling on the turn. apperently button must have had a 7 but he must be kind of a donk if he was 3betting with a seven and assuming DERB knows the guy is a donk and that explains why he so overplayed the flop/turn.

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that people on 2+2 would basically accuse another player of cheating, just because they don't subscribe to all 2+2 theories as Rigoletto points out, and the player happens to win some money playing poker. There have been no hands posted to question his play (to show either collusion or playing with a bot), and no evidence of any type to indicate anything dishonest.

I'm not going to post on 2+2 anymore. I'm sure I will have occasion to see 2+2ers online and playing poker, and will communicate that way. I will still host my PP 15-30 prvt table for those who want to play and shoot the bull.

I've just had enough of certain posters and a general arrogant atmosphere on 2+2 that I can live without. Perhaps I am part of the cause, and for that I am sorry.

I wish you all the best, and thank you for all the good times, poker insight, and laughs.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, nobody is saying for sure he's cheating.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought J V said that loud and clear.

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

[ QUOTE ]
dude, nobody is saying for sure he's cheating.

the only reason i want to analyze the play is to see if we can actually learn from this guy. makes sense when somebody single handedly shatters your comfy little reality by playing 2x the # of hands you play and winning more/100 hands.

however, it also makes sense that since it (may turn out to be) so unlikely that there may be another explanation...it may be cheating...but thats not the same as somebody saying, "he's cheating, thats it."

im curious to learn how he does so damn well over so many hands.
-Barron


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not THAT many hands.

Would you be this surprised if you met someone who had won a decent-sized lotto jackpot or found out that one of your classmates had a rare disease?

It's much more likely that this guy is an extreme outlier than that he's reinvented the wheel.

scrub

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

Yeah, thats why I took the hand down, cause after i looked at it again, the turn cap wasn't bad by much and I wanted to find a better example, but people already read the hand so I figured I better put it back up.

I'll try and find some better ones.

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry bout that.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:: DERB raisees in CO, button 3 bets, BB calls, DERB caps

Flop: (1.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
BB checks, DERB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, DERB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB caps</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (15.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">DERB raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 19.25 BB

DERB shows A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is so rediculous about this hand? When button 3bets preflop how many hands have a 7 in them besides 77? DERB probably puts button on another AK and thinks hes freerolling on the turn. apperently button must have had a 7 but he must be kind of a donk if he was 3betting with a seven and assuming DERB knows the guy is a donk and that explains why he so overplayed the flop/turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn raise is awful.

Re: DERB
 

I have played a lot of hands against this guy, and I think he sucks. But I bet he destroys people who don't realize how he plays. It is very possible that because he plays the same game all the time he knows the other players to a degree that pokertracker stats can't fully communicate. Consquently, he knows how to exploit his opponents. If the majority of the table doesn't adjust to him capping preflop with AJo and 44 I can see him winning big. I love having the guy at the table.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you would have asked me 1yr ago if a guy who plays 30% of his hands (or vol puts $ in pot) can win i'd say no...


[/ QUOTE ]

while 30% isn't optimal, i don't doubt somebody could be a winner with those stats. (its just a matter of how big of a winner you can be with those numbers)

i know its a completely different ballpark, but i was at 4.4bb/100 over 30k hands at party 3/6 with a 27.5 vpip. with such a big head start in terms of bb's won, i could easily add even more to my vpip over tens of thousands of hands before i go into the red and would still be a long-term "winner", but that doesn't mean its sound strategy or anything.

playing a suboptimally preflop + playing decently well postflop + running really hot can result in some really freaky looking numbers.

the long run is really really long. don't forget that before you jump into any conclusions to any great new strategy you may learn from him or conclude he's cheating.

Re: EXCEL help
 

Send me a csv file with one line from your spreadsheet, plus the header line if there is one (or the whole thing if you want), and I will either figure out how to do it in Excel or write a perl program to do it.

EDIT: Ooops. Just got to the part of the thread where somneone else offered this. Well, let me know anyway if you want me to help.

Re: DERB
 

this player plays the 30 very well. i think his post flop play exploits the biggest mistake in poker (ones that cost the whole pot) of making people fold hands with significant equity. granted, this player seems to hit against me like crazy on the river after raise when behind on turn. he puts himself in a position to get lucky though and extracts a lot when he hits. can you give us a position by position winrate. i think that in the sample i have (around 30K hands of his) he's winning like .25 on button but losing utg and utg+1. i've seen this player go on -10K to -15K down streaks. I think he's just doing a great job of exploiting the weak tights. excellent use of position. and plays a high varience game.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
this player plays the 30 very well. i think his post flop play exploits the biggest mistake in poker (ones that cost the whole pot) of making people fold hands with significant equity. granted, this player seems to hit against me like crazy on the river after raise when behind on turn. he puts himself in a position to get lucky though and extracts a lot when he hits. can you give us a position by position winrate. i think that in the sample i have (around 30K hands of his) he's winning like .25 on button but losing utg and utg+1. i've seen this player go on -10K to -15K down streaks. I think he's just doing a great job of exploiting the weak tights. excellent use of position. and plays a high varience game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't think this guy is winning money from me. He is easily exploitable. What this says to me is that we should all stive to play like him against people that don't notice, and play like our TAG selves vs others.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
this player plays the 30 very well. i think his post flop play exploits the biggest mistake in poker (ones that cost the whole pot) of making people fold hands with significant equity. granted, this player seems to hit against me like crazy on the river after raise when behind on turn. he puts himself in a position to get lucky though and extracts a lot when he hits. can you give us a position by position winrate. i think that in the sample i have (around 30K hands of his) he's winning like .25 on button but losing utg and utg+1. i've seen this player go on -10K to -15K down streaks. I think he's just doing a great job of exploiting the weak tights. excellent use of position. and plays a high varience game.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. don't have ptracker with me here. but he plays awesome in steal/defense situations, and with position.

Re: DERB
 

What's his W$WSF?

Re: A DERB hand *DELETED*
 

Umm, what's ridiculous is that it is the BB, not button, that is representing strength on the flop and turn, bascially turning his 7 face up. Since BB just called pre-flop, he could well have a 7 in his hand.

That being said, the turn raise isn't horrible, and while the cap is worse, it's not horrendous either, mainly because he likely has 10 outs, and if button keeps cold calling, he'd get 2:1 on his money with a 4:1 draw.

back to rec.gambling.poker?
 

Really now, is there any better way to discuss hands and improve your game?

So have fun with Russ G.

Re: DERB
 

sounds like he read phil hellmuth's book.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm bored enough:

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Ah Kh (high card, ace).
Button has Ac Qh (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.50 BB. </font>

BB is our idiot.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Ah Jc (two pair, aces and threes).
MP2 has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and threes).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.75 BB. </font>

Idiot is UTG

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Tc As (one pair, aces).
MP2 has Kc Ah (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP2 wins 13.75 BB. </font>

Idiot is MP3

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Converter error, he calls the river HU.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Ah Ad (one pair, aces).
UTG doesn't show.
MP1 doesn't show.
MP3 has As Kh (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 14.25 BB. </font>

There are tons of worse hands, then his raises UTG with 33 A5s etc, and i'm sure he doesn't win. He's the 1/1000 case, the rare disease, the lotto winner.

FWIW re: cheating, there are two other players who play the game reg with the same location as him but i doubt 1. they cheat since they play so different 2. our donkey is a donkey all the time and 3. they get accused of being cheats by every railbird on the site every single day.

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

Loud and clear?

I think there's an 80% chance he's running absurdly good, a 10% chance something is up, and a 10% chance he's running weak/tight players over and actually beating the game.

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Loud and clear?

I think there's an 80% chance he's running absurdly good, a 10% chance something is up, and a 10% chance he's running weak/tight players over and actually beating the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

i knew what you were sayin, man.

we'll see what the pvalue of his run is soon...i sent the data to TimM for fixing, when i get it back the first thing i want to see is how likely it is for him to have run this well given all the other tens of thousands of players in the game's numbers....

then i'll go and disect his play stepwise controlled variable by controled variable.

yea, im a dork.

-Barron

Re: AFTER THIS POST, I\'M FINISHED WITH 2+2.
 

[ QUOTE ]
yea, im a dork.

[/ QUOTE ]

And we love you for it!

Re: DERB
 

Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.

Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.

Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.

Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.

Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3

[/ QUOTE ]

so for all intents and purposes, even the high STDEV #s are 0% probability (.0023 is still pretty damn close to 0 and i dont even think he plays enough hands and is crazy enough to have a 30bb/100 st.dev...thats just hard to accomplish given the # of hands he plays. HOWEVER&lt; it may make sense because the curve of st.dev (y) to # hands played aggressively (x) would look something like a less extreme right hand side of a parabola...something like y=.5*x^2. this is the case because of the incremental addition of each hand would add less to your variance if you are playing few hands because you're just not playing enough hands to even have a variance...but as you play more and more hands, each addition hand will add proportionally more to your variance than if you were playing fewer hands because NOW you're playing so many hands that the probability of being up or down large amounts increases substantially....)

well, ok, i've now convinced myself that he may actually have a st.dev well over 30bb/100...thats a huge st.dev....but it makes the probability of him running well fall within "reasonable" limits.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: DERB
 

RE: The lotto winner comment.

Exactly. Read this post if you are a non-believer.

a 2+2 lottery winner

We don't see the guys with these numbers who come in with 10k and go bust. Most of them go bust at 2/4. Some people have the roll and get lucky, that's poker guys.
-James

Re: DERB
 

i've only played very little, and done datamining at 30/60, but i'm pretty sure that i know guy you're talking about. i have a few databases with him on it, and he's been running VERY GOOD on all of them.

I don't like to believe that there is a lot of cheating going on at Party, but I have to admit that this guys' stats are a little bit suspicious. And if I was looking to support the assumption that he is in fact colluding, then there's a decent amount of evidence in his stats:

-He has a very high W$WSF, esp for somebody with such a high VPIP. of course this could be sign of running well, but it seems strange that he's close to the same % in all 3 of my DB's.

-He has a stange combination of REALLY high Went to showdown, and folded to river bet. Of course, this could just mean that he's got very good reads on players, and folds a lot when he knows he's beat on the end... but the thing that I find more convincing is that his W$SD when just calling on the river is pretty damn low. so this would go against the theory that he just folds when he knows he's beat.

-his W$@SD after bet/raised turn is very low... suggesting he could be in a raising war with somebody else, trying to push other players out.

I'm not saying that this is at all conclusive, but it does seem that if somebody were colluding, they would have stats similar to this guys. if he's in there with another guy betting/raising to knock the other players out on the flop and turn, then he'd have very high Aggr factors, and very high W$WSF which he does. Also, many on here are talking about how much he "draws out", and if he were doin colluding, then of course when they run into somebody with a real hand who can withstand all the betting/raising, the pot will have gotten so big that he'll need to continue and draw to his miracle card. also, his W$@SD when calling a river bet would be low, since he'll have a really big pot with great odds to try and call for one bet, even though his when folded to river bet is high, since only the one with the better hand (him or his partner) would need to call a bet at the end.

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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41.65%

mine is 41.98...

sick i tell you, sick.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

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I'm clearly invisible, or is there a forum standard to not reply to any of my replies?

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i have his W$WSF at about 42

Re: DERB
 

42 is absurd. thats more than mine at 6max.