Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

Motor City 15/30 ten handed. Game is playing tight passive at the moment. There seem to be a couple decent TAGs in the game, mostly bad tight players though.

Villian in this hand is somewhat loose and very passive. I've played about 100 hours of poker with him and never seen him do anythhing resembling gettting out of line. He has MUBS and also misses tons of value on all streets.

SB is stuck a rack and won't stop bitching about it. He's very passive and osscilates from loose to tight it seems.

I'm in UTG+2 with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG folds. UTG+1 takes too long to fold. I look to my left and see three people have folded out of turn. I raise. Villain in MP+2 Calls. SB calls. BB calls.

Flop (Four handed. 8 SB.): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Check. Check. I bet. Villain Calls. SB Calls. BB Folds.

Turn (Three handed. 5.5 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Check. I bet. Villain Raises. SB Calls. I call.

River (Three handed. 10.5 BB): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB Checks. I check. Villian Bets. SB Calls. Hero Folds.

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

If you think that he never gets out of line, and you are behind, then fold on the turn. Why call a bet there? Are you waiting to see if he fires on the river or ....? ( i assume not fishing for a boat, right?)

Personally, I would probably even call the river. Wouldn't he raise hands such as KQ or JT? Would he have played AK in such a manner? I think you make a choice, either fold on the turn or call him down on the river. Not half way between though.

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i assume not fishing for a boat, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you assume that?

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

you've got to be really sure about your read to do something like that, which is also why I don't understand why you posted the hand

I can't possibly ascertain that villain doesn't play AK/KQ/JT this way from what you've told us, so based on the information given I'd never fold this river and neither should you

it all comes down to how accurate your read is, and imo you need to be pretty damn sure to make this fold +EV

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

You don't think he will have JT or K2s often enough to be able to call the river?

On it's face it seems like a bad fold but only you here really know how passive villian is...

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

A tight passive villian has a straight here almost always. He might have TJs but thats about it for hands that you beat that he would raise. He may not even call with this or KJ after a raise preflop. If that is your read then calling the turn is correct since you have odds to improve. The villian misses value bets so he may check the river down if a scary card to him hits. I know plenty of tight passive players I would fold this river to but only you can make that call here.

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

I think you have to call the river, unless you really think there's no way that he would raise with 2 pair on this board.

Board: Ks Td Jc 2d 3s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.667% 12.50% 04.17% 6 2.00 { KcTh }
Hand 1: 83.333% 79.17% 04.17% 38 2.00 { AQs, KJs-KTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo-KTo, Q9o, JTo }


According to this, you have 15% equity if he only plays this way with two pair or better - this only goes up if we include the possibility that he has K2s or AK/KQ. You are getting 12:1, so you need to be good about 8% of the time - I think this is enough overlay to call.

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

Other than JT, did you consider you could be chopping as well?

I'm not good enough to fold this, but you're the one who has 100 hours of experience with him. I guess if you know he's not value betting JT with MUBS, you can fold this pretty easily.

I'm thinking hero made the turn call not only because he could fill up on the river, but also because he felt he could be ahead. But hero had a river read that if villain bet the river as well, his range would be well-defined as always beating hero.

Garland

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

I think there's a chance he was on the fence about raising you on the flop with his king, and then decided to perk up when the flush draw came in. If he had check raised the turn I agree the river is probably a fold, as played I'm skeptical enough to pay him off, but it's bound to be close.

Re: Folding T/B pairs for one bet on the River.
 

why do you refer to yourself as "i" throughout the hand and when you fold you refer to yourself as "hero"?

anyway, if he's the type of opponent i think he is the fold is okay. sure you only need to be good 8% of the time or whatever, but if hes as uberpassive as you say he's exactly the type to coldcall AQ, not raise a set on that board because you have AQ, and do the patented fish slowplay until the big street.