Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

I made the isolation raise because the guy had been limping in early pos a lot. Board is kinda coordinated on the flop to cbet into two. I bet the turn and the guy called very quickly. Thoughts
Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, $16,000 Guarantee (Rebuy), 200/400 Blinds, 50 Ante, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: 10,269
SB: 6,270
BB: 18,905
UTG: 43,633
UTG+1: 40,575
UTG+2: 25,082
Hero (MP1): 49,105
MP2: 19,849
CO: 37,922

Pre-Flop: (1,050) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 400, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, MP2 folds, CO calls 1,600, BTN folds, UTG+1 calls 1,200

Flop: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 (3 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A (3 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 4,400, CO calls 4,400, UTG+1 folds

River: (14,650) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 (2 Players)
Hero bets 43,055 and is All-In,

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand.

What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river.

Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range?

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand.

What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river.

Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if his marginal hand includes a 4, he knows we don't have a 4 either.

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

And for the record, if we DID have a 4, I would overbet this river every single time.

Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
 

The problem with the overbet is that if we get called we've made this from a minor loss to a major loss because we overbet the river. HERO in this hand is repping an A and even AK should call in this case.


So this a a very high variance play that many donkeys use which probably are EV-.