Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6-handed (just dropped from 9-handed in last 2 hands)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $73.90
UTG+1: $200
Hero: $207.70
CO: $218.10
Button: $120
SB: $108.20
BB: $461.05

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $7, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($24, 3 players)
UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $67, CO calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 3 players)
Hero ???

Further info:
I joined this table after data-mining it and others for a while. I'm on my second orbit. It was 9-handed when I joined but has just fallen to 6-handed. The UTG short-stack has VPIP/Pre-Flop Raise%/Post-Flop AF of 26/12/10 and the CO is 21/3/3.

Questions:
1. Pre-Flop: I called. I always used to reraise in this spot but since reading NLHTAP I've started calling and its worked pretty well. Any thoughts?

2. Flop: I reraise putting the short-stack exactly all-in. Unexpectedly the CO calls. Now I'm worried about a set. I rule out AA/KK as they surely would have reraised pre-flop. What sort of hands do you put him on?

3. Turn: I check for pot control and am surprised but pleased to have him check behind. Was he a calling station on the flop or is he slowplaying? What range do you now put him on?

4. River: I river top set and am now feeling much better about my hand as I now beat other sets / 2-pair hands. A backdoor flush is now possible but seems somewhat unlikely. There is now $178 in the pot and I have $133.7 left. He covers. How much should I bet and what am I hoping to be called by?

Re: Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

1. Both are fine depending on table conditions

2. set, JJ, T9, QJ.

3. it makes no sense for CO to check behind here with a monster, but players make mistakes and this may be one of them. Otherwise, his most likely holding is QJ.

4. River: Openshoving is good here.
It looks bluffy, especially after the turn check and villain will think you are using the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as a scare card. If he has 2 pair+, he will call you.
I wouldn't worry about being beat (by either a straight or flush), because if he shoves, you are going to call it anyway.

Re: Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

Reraise pf, as played shove river

Re: Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

I'd raise preflop because of position. You still have 2 players behind you. You want the button.

Because one of his likely marginal hands is QJ -- which just "got there" to a degree -- I bet. If you check it to him and he has QJ, he'll just check behind. By betting your missing the opportunity to get him to bluff a busted straight, but since since a big part of his range just turned in to a made hand which you beat, you're better off value betting here than trying to induce. So bet half pot.

Re: Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

[ QUOTE ]
So bet half pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure on the logic behind this when I only have 2/3 pot left behind. Care to elaborate? I did give some thought at the time to a 1/3 pot bet but came to the conclusion that it was a push or check decision.

[ QUOTE ]
1. Both are fine depending on table conditions

2. set, JJ, T9, QJ.

3. it makes no sense for CO to check behind here with a monster, but players make mistakes and this may be one of them. Otherwise, his most likely holding is QJ.

4. River: Openshoving is good here.
It looks bluffy, especially after the turn check and villain will think you are using the as a scare card. If he has 2 pair+, he will call you.
I wouldn't worry about being beat (by either a straight or flush), because if he shoves, you are going to call it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

One last question that occurs to me now, is what happens if he shoves the turn after I check. At the time I would have folded figuring its too likely I'm beaten but now I'm not so sure as I would have been getting 2.5 to 1 on the call. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Re: Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
 

1. It's okay to call sometimes, but I do it very rarely, as I 3-bet a lot of marginal hands in position as well. Don't fall in love with it though.

2. A set or 2-pair, or 78/JQ. Bad players will have A-10 here too.

3. 78/JQ and A-10 become a larger part of his range; most of time sets and 9-10 will bet this turn.

4. Shove.