deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?
 

simple question: take this hand to the felt or not?

Villain is new to the site, seems like a TAG, have not seen him get out of line. He limps his weaker hands from MP. I have been playing aggressively, but I have not shown down any big bluffs.


stacks:

Hero has 4200, villain covers

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
9 players


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 8s 8d
3 folds, MP2 raises to $70, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: as 8c qd ($170, 2 players)
MP2 bets $125, Hero raises to $320, MP2 calls.

Turn: 3c ($810, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $600, MP2 raises to $1800

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

660 games 0.005 secs 132,000 games/sec

Board: As 8c Qd 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.9091 % 45.91% 00.00% { AA, QQ, AQs, AQo }
Hand 2: 54.0909 % 54.09% 00.00% { 8d8s }

You have equity if this is his range, but i doubt he does this raise with anything but AcQc+. Maybe this is a big bluff every once in a while but, i'd still be inclined to fold, though folding bottom set is hard to do in theory and even hard to do in practise.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

He has more ways to have AQ/AK than AA/QQ (or could possibly have the case 8 with an A), but he probably doesn't put you on playing a set fast on the flop either. Which means AK trying to get rid of a split would often by played like that OOP by some players, as well as AQ. So I would call and then either call or push the river. But I would never call that turn checkraise if I ever intended to fold the river.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has more ways to have AQ/AK than AA/QQ (or could possibly have the case 8 with an A), but he probably doesn't put you on playing a set fast on the flop either. Which means AK trying to get rid of a split would often by played like that OOP by some players, as well as AQ. So I would call and then either call or push the river. But I would never call that turn checkraise if I ever intended to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is A8s unlikely enough for a TAG to raise in MP to disregard here? Also, shouldn't AK be included as part of his range? Where is he folding AK? Probably not on the flop, does AK just call the turn definitely?

*Edit* I know you are saying AK IS part of his range, BluffThis, this is just more for the above range poster.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

Try this converter:
http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter/
..or if you already are, with some better settings.

He's certainly representing top or second set, but he could also be semi-bluffing. There's a small chance he's trying to push you off a biggish hand or even thinking he is value-betting with top two, as bet-3-betting the flop would scare almost anything as that would look like a set. You do have to take your image into account here.

My reason for folding would be that the 1800 bet totally commits you, and he knows it.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
He limps his weaker hands from MP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Try this converter:
http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter/
..or if you already are, with some better settings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I tried it, I fiddled around with it, I changed it to the "2+2" setting, it still came out with garbage. Finally I just manually took out some of the extraneous stuff.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

To think that he would do it with AcQc and not other AQ's is ridiculous.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Try this converter:
http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter/
..or if you already are, with some better settings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I tried it, I fiddled around with it, I changed it to the "2+2" setting, it still came out with garbage. Finally I just manually took out some of the extraneous stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 output
-> enter your name on site
cc0000 color raises
ffffff color results
show stacks 1
show stacks 2
show results

The rest default/off

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

get busted! seriously though I think your going to have to play a big pot here, yes his line is strong but it includes far too many hands you are beating already.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
get busted! seriously though I think your going to have to play a big pot here, yes his line is strong but it includes far too many hands you are beating already.

[/ QUOTE ]

far too many hands? are you serious?

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
To think that he would do it with AcQc and not other AQ's is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not ridiculous, just silly.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

[/ QUOTE ]

With fairly deep stacks, I think he could quite possibly have two paint clubs here. However, hero has certainly shown a lot of strength in the hand so far, so I'm not sure villain would C/R the turn with just a big draw here, knowing he could face a 3-bet push and be stuck in the pot.

Depends on villain's perception of hero's range here, I think.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?
 

Tough Spot. I go to the felt expecting to see A Q.

However, last time I was in a similar spot it didn't turn out so well. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Try this converter:
http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter/
..or if you already are, with some better settings.

He's certainly representing top or second set, but he could also be semi-bluffing. There's a small chance he's trying to push you off a biggish hand or even thinking he is value-betting with top two, as bet-3-betting the flop would scare almost anything as that would look like a set. You do have to take your image into account here.

My reason for folding would be that the 1800 bet totally commits you, and he knows it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it a common play for someone to bet out with a big set and then slow down? I don't see why the villian wouldn't stick in a third raise on the flop w/ the set. Why wait to check-raise on the turn with a set of aces or queens?
That's why I'm thinking the turn check-raise maybe some sort of semi-bluff. Or maybe he just wants it to look like a semi-bluff [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] If he really has the big set you have got to give him kudos for a savvy play.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?
 

Screename?

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think this hand range is too narrow, why can't he have JTcc here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is AcKc to be ruled out? I see this play at lower stakes with that hand all the time. Even against a very narrow range (the AQ/AA/AA pokerstove results earlier in the thread), folding would be a mistake.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

this would be an awful way to play akcc unless you are playing against an opponent who is so tight he lays down bottom set [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

Running bad? This is the easiest push ever. Raise more on the flop.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
this would be an awful way to play akcc unless you are playing against an opponent who is so tight he lays down bottom set [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say it was a good way to play AcKc, just that I saw it a lot. They don't want to jam the flop with one pair but now that they have a draw, they think they're gold. I don't know if 10/20 people do that but its not uncommon at 2/4-5/10.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold?
 

I think you played it fine. I push the turn. You've got him beat far too often to fold here.

Kirk

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

results?

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
this would be an awful way to play akcc unless you are playing against an opponent who is so tight he lays down bottom set [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't usually get a chance to put 210 BBs on the line. Was wondering if that changed anything in people's opinion.

Re: deepish with bottom set, his line is superstrong, ALLINOMG or fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
results?

[/ QUOTE ]
hero calls and villain shows overset

RESULTS
 

I thought about it for a while, then realized I was stuck a few grand and if I won this hand I'd be positive again, so there's no way I could consider folding.

I also figured pushing might possibly somehow maybe let him off the hook if all he has is AK, so better line was to call the check-raise and get it in on the river, as BluffThis suggested. I can also probably drop the hand if an ace falls on the river, since I think a lot of his range consists of aces up. Except I doubt I would've dropped it, but it's nice to think these things.

Anyway, I called.

River was a J which changed nothing, he pushes I call.

He has AQ, MHIG.

Sure to add more fuel to the "never fold a set" fire, but I thought it was a genuinely difficult decision, until I realized, ohno stuck, gamboooool!

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about it for a while, then realized I was stuck a few grand and if I won this hand I'd be positive again, so there's no way I could consider folding.

I also figured pushing might possibly somehow maybe let him off the hook if all he has is AK, so better line was to call the check-raise and get it in on the river, as BluffThis suggested. I can also probably drop the hand if an ace falls on the river, since I think a lot of his range consists of aces up. Except I doubt I would've dropped it, but it's nice to think these things.

Anyway, I called.

River was a J which changed nothing, he pushes I call.

He has AQ, MHIG.

Sure to add more fuel to the "never fold a set" fire, but I thought it was a genuinely difficult decision, until I realized, ohno stuck, gamboooool!

[/ QUOTE ]

you said you think he could have AK with this line, so you shouldn't fold on any river (even the ace, or I should say, especially the ace)

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about it for a while, then realized I was stuck a few grand and if I won this hand I'd be positive again, so there's no way I could consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the worst possible reasoning for making poker decisions.

Still, interesting hand though.

Re: RESULTS
 

My vibe was AQ, AA, or QQ as I was playing the hand, I thought there was a remote chance of AK but not really likely.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
My vibe was AQ, AA, or QQ as I was playing the hand, I thought there was a remote chance of AK but not really likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah k.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought about it for a while, then realized I was stuck a few grand and if I won this hand I'd be positive again, so there's no way I could consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the worst possible reasoning for making poker decisions.

Still, interesting hand though.

[/ QUOTE ]

it was a "joke"

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought about it for a while, then realized I was stuck a few grand and if I won this hand I'd be positive again, so there's no way I could consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the worst possible reasoning for making poker decisions.

Still, interesting hand though.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you hit 750+ posts and not understand the elementary rules of poker? When you are stuck, you must play until you are unstuck, and to do that you have to gambooooooooool in raised pots.