I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

This is the 30k 3r on Stars. Rebuy period is over and I have a stack of ~6k after losing JJ vs AQ. Blinds just changed to 200/400 with antes about 2 hands ago.

Villain is a donkey who limp calls a lot preflop and has been hitting to get a 24k stack. He rarely raises which is why I think this is an easy fold.

Villain is UTG and opens to 1200,all fold to hero who is in the Button with AQo. Obvious fold right. I suck so much. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obvious fold right.

[/ QUOTE ]

right

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

Is calling/folding here read dependent? Or would you outright fold aq here to any player who makes a standard 3 x bb utg raise?

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling/folding here read dependent? Or would you outright fold aq here to any player who makes a standard 3 x bb utg raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

sure it's read dependant for me.
against some loose-aggressive player, that has a wider opening range i would call with position anytime.
also against a weak postflop player i'd call this.
here the given reads
[ QUOTE ]
He rarely raises

[/ QUOTE ]
make it an easy fold.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

There's totally not enough information. Is he limp/calling with AK? Is TT+ Really out of his range? Standard is call and reevaluate on the flop.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

Tough one .. especially in a $3R .. people do crazy stuff there. What were his calling hands? Maybe he just is a loose player and didn't get any cards to raise but didn't want to fold either.

The typical $3R player would raise AJ+,88+ here and even that is pretty tight for this tourney.

15xBB is just at the border were I don't like shoving a 3xBB raise anymore (but against villain's range it still can be +EV), so I'd just call. Play a good hand in position.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

I'd probably shove.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

Jeez, why do some many people want to call for 20% of our stack. It really should be push/fold. I shove because the read doesn't seem strong and so I default to putting them on a typically loose range for a 3R.
I don't get the "15xBB is just at the border were I don't like shoving a 3xBB raise" -- slightly more is OPTIMAL (since as is they should call even with just 40% equity against your range) and I'll happily shove over for quite a lot more.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

If I really really felt like villain was a rock, I'm probably calling and hoping I flop - Rocks typically won't let their hands go so if my card is one over to his PP I'll do fine.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

I think calling here hoping to catch something on the flop is terrible with my stack size.
I have seen him limp Q10s utg and KQo and call a raise then stack off with top pair.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

I would need to have a pretty damn good read not to shove this.

In my experience, the guys who limp tons of hands hoping to hit a flop are the same ones who think any A is raise-worthy, regardless of position.

I shove here and hope to be dominating when he calls with A9 or win the race when he calls with 66.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

Let's do the math ... I'll stick with my raising range of AJ+,88+ .. once you push let's say that villain calls with AQ+,JJ+. So villain raises 69 hands and calls your push with 39 of them - that's 56%

If you shove and villain folds, you have 7.800 chips
If you shove get called and win, you have 12.600 chips
If villain calls, you are a 33% favorite to win the pot.

0.44 x 7800 + 0.56 x 0.33 x 12600 = 5760

So you are losing 240 chips on average with this shove

Let's try it, if villain calls the shove with AJ+,TT+. Now he is calling with 57 hands of his 69 hand raising range (83%) and once he calls, you are a 42% underdog.

0.17 x 7800 + 0.83 x 0.42 x 12600 = 5718

Not much better .. still a loss of 382 chips on average.

Now let's see what happens if villain calls with his whole range

0.43 x 12600 = 5418 even worse -EV

Going with your read I'd say that villain calls pretty wide here which makes a shove -EV unless you adjust the raising range.

Re: I suck at poker , easy fold pf with AQo right ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's do the math ... I'll stick with my raising range of AJ+,88+ .. once you push let's say that villain calls with AQ+,JJ+. So villain raises 69 hands and calls your push with 39 of them - that's 56%

If you shove and villain folds, you have 7.800 chips
If you shove get called and win, you have 12.600 chips
If villain calls, you are a 33% favorite to win the pot.

0.44 x 7800 + 0.56 x 0.33 x 12600 = 5760

So you are losing 240 chips on average with this shove

Let's try it, if villain calls the shove with AJ+,TT+. Now he is calling with 57 hands of his 69 hand raising range (83%) and once he calls, you are a 42% underdog.

0.17 x 7800 + 0.83 x 0.42 x 12600 = 5718

Not much better .. still a loss of 382 chips on average.

Now let's see what happens if villain calls with his whole range

0.43 x 12600 = 5418 even worse -EV

Going with your read I'd say that villain calls pretty wide here which makes a shove -EV unless you adjust the raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]
Excellent post. You are correct sir.
I timed down and shoved cuz i was tired even thought i was thinking in my head to fold. He called with AA and I busted out.