100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

100NL Villian is unknown nothing too noticeable in the last 30 minutes.

I get red KK on OTB.

Villian raises UTG to 3.50, I make it 11.50 on the button. He calls 2 to the flop.

Pot 24$ - 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
he bets 14, i make it 45, he calls.

turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] He puts my last 62$ in and I fold

thoughts?

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

1) Raise to like 15 preflop (he is raising UTG and will call a bigger raise than usual)

2)Raise more on the flop- like 55. (you reraised his UTG raise, and he is donking the flop, again he will usually call a bigger bet)

3) As played turn is an easy call (you are most worried about QQs/other set here, NOT a flush) You have an overpair and are getting good pot odds. Horrible fold.

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

uhm ur repop is fine, I guess the flop raise is big enough, folding here is insane call

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

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folding here is insane

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Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

What takes this line and I beat it? Raise UTG, call a 3bet, Donk the flop, call a raise, donk the turn all in on scary board?

Ive shown nothing but strength and he keeps pushing the action.

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

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What takes this line and I beat it? Raise UTG, call a 3bet, Donk the flop, call a raise, donk the turn all in on scary board?

Ive shown nothing but strength and he keeps pushing the action.

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The pot is too big to fold here with the 2nd nut fd and over pair. First of all, you almost have the odds to call even if you know he has a set. The only time the call will be huge -EV is when he has the nut flush or AdA.

He could easily push any hand he think he needs to call a bet with. The problem is that there are not plenty of hands you're ahead of except for retarded bluffs. I still call readless. I will fold this against some players though. I think you'll see a flush, AA/KK/QQ or a set a ton.

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

176 : 62 isnt really near drawing for a flush that might not even be the nut flush. I like your other points but i disagree that the price is worth it because im killed too often

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

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176 : 62 isnt really near drawing for a flush that might not even be the nut flush. I like your other points but i disagree that the price is worth it because im killed too often

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What I said was that against a set you almost have the odds. If you're drawing against a set you're not fearing a higher fd. You have 10 outs giving you 3.5:1 when you get 2.84:1. Or if I put it this way:

176*0.222 - 62*0.778 = -$9

A call against a set loses you only $9 in the long run. What you're really concerned about here is how often he has AdA/Adxd and, to a lesser extent, a lower flush. Will the times he has hands like JdJ/TdT/Td8/Ad9 or two pair (a call is easily +EV against any two pairs) make up for the times you're drawing slim? Against an unknown I would say that's the case, especially since the pot is big enough in comparision to your remaining stacksizes for him to be pot committed with any combodraw etc, and in that case he might as well push himself. I've seen plenty of garbage in these situations, and readless a call should be clearly +EV.

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

AdAx often, a set often, a lower flush rarely or never, 2 pair never just based soley on the utg raise call of 3 bet there is no sensible 2 pair/T8/A9 none of that calls the 3 bet and donks into me.
His range is like QQ+, sets, AA. Fwiw i called and he had 777 and i thought "that was stupid, his line is the fking nuts everytime"

Re: 100NL I fold Overpair + 2NFD hear me out
 

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AdAx often, a set often, a lower flush rarely or never, 2 pair never just based soley on the utg raise call of 3 bet there is no sensible 2 pair/T8/A9 none of that calls the 3 bet and donks into me.
His range is like QQ+, sets, AA. Fwiw i called and he had 777 and i thought "that was stupid, his line is the fking nuts everytime"

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you forgot the chances of you being paranoid/scared money