Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Alright, get your flame throwers out. I don't think that lines makers know what to do with New England. Obviously they have over performed, right? No team can sustain these numbers, correct? The line is already moving up but there is a few stale lines out there and I'm grabbing one. You can get -15 at Skybook.

Washington Redskins at New England Patriots -15.5 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u


YTD (possibly pending a MNF play from last week)

11-14-1
-7.85u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Cleveland Browns -3 @ St. Louis Rams (+105)
Risking 2u to win 2.1u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

BTW, there is a couple arbs available right now...

Browns -3 +105 (the greek)
Rams +3 +105 (pinny)
Rams +3 +101 (matchbook)

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

I really like the Browns bet. People are underrating them a lot IMO. I'm actually about to post more on that in a new thread.

- C -

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Bodog has GB +3 against the broncos next week.

What am I missing? I thought the pack would be favored?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog has GB +3 against the broncos next week.

What am I missing? I thought the pack would be favored?

[/ QUOTE ]

They play in the NFC.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Updated YTD after MNF Week 7...

11-15-1
-10.05u

Yuck!

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland Browns -3 @ St. Louis Rams (+105)
Risking 2u to win 2.1u

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the Browns, took them for a couple units.
They can possibly be my new Titans. Titans were great to bet on before, always had a good price. Alot of people still don't give Browns the credit.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the Browns, took them for a couple units.
They can possibly be my new Titans. Titans were great to bet on before, always had a good price. Alot of people still don't give Browns the credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually Browns are a candidate for BSP pick of the week. See http://tinyurl.com/2jznjx

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Everyone knows that Tom Brady has the arm of a greek god and Randy Moss bats defenders away with his dick, but does anyone else feel like -16 is a lot for NE to be giving to a 4-2 team with a good pass defense? I know last week was on the road but the line was about the same for Miami. How can that be right?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

NE is now 2 TDs and a FG favorite at Bodog for NE-17(even) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I decided to tease NE -11 with Buffalo +9 which is probably terrible but when I teased Miami to +23 I sweated it the entire game.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]

I decided to tease NE -11 with Buffalo +9 which is probably terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no offense, but it's more than probable.

The Buffalo +3->+9 isn't so bad (since they are closer to a 2.5 dog than true 3).

Assuming the line is accurate, a 6-point teaser is a +EV play only if by getting those 6 points odds of ~50-50 proposition (e.g., NE wins by 17+ ) now occur over 70-72% of the time depending on the juice (since you have to hit both ends of the teaser).

So only if you think NE wins by exactly 11-16 over 20-22% of the time is this a +EV play to tease the pats.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]

I decided to tease NE -11 with Buffalo +9 which is probably terrible

[/ QUOTE ]


yuck.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone knows that Tom Brady has the arm of a greek god and Randy Moss bats defenders away with his dick, but does anyone else feel like -16 is a lot for NE to be giving to a 4-2 team with a good pass defense? I know last week was on the road but the line was about the same for Miami. How can that be right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Washington overrated IMO.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

I also agree that people are severly underrating Browns this year (Browns to the playoffs, lock it up), but I could see this game being somewhat of a shootout. As bad as the Rams offense has been, they still have Bulger and Holt, and I could see them scoring enough to keep it relatively close.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

I think I'd rather take the points rather than give em in Browns/Ram, as I expect it to be a tight affair.

My picks this week:

Packers +3
49ers +3
Giants -9
Giants/Dolphins over 48

All computer generated so no reasoning behind it. YTD: 17-11-1

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

What do you guys think about this... (10 point teaser)
I have to pick 3 possible combinations...
here are some of my favorites for week 8

- Giants/Dolphins ... Under 58
- Redskins +27 (vs Patriots)
- Packers +13 (vs Broncos)
- Vikings/Eagles ... Over 27
- Browns +7 (vs Rams)
- Jaguars +14 (vs Bucanners)

what would be the best 3 selections?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]

What do you guys think about this... (10 point teaser)
I have to pick 3 possible combinations...
here are some of my favorites for week 8

- Giants/Dolphins ... Under 58
- Redskins +27 (vs Patriots)
- Packers +13 (vs Broncos)
- Vikings/Eagles ... Over 27
- Browns +7 (vs Rams)
- Jaguars +14 (vs Bucanners)

what would be the best 3 selections?

[/ QUOTE ]
Giants Dolphins U
Browns +7
Wash +27 (even though as sick as it sounds NE-7 might be better side)

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

thanks !! NE-7 ? or redskins +27 ? ... I dont know dude
they have to lose a game someday...

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

Redskins defense isn't overrated. I just think the defense will do its job long enough, but won't be able to keep up with the PATS offense. skins won't be able to do anything on offense. I say PATS 24 SKINS 10.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

This week picks:

Browns
Lions
Redskins

Browns -3 is prob BSP after reading various forums. I still like them though. Anyone know what the stats are on BSP's this year.

Lions have beaten the Bears already. It's Grossman less this time, but 5pts is good enough for me.

I love the Pats, they've made me some decent coin this year. But 16.5 is alot to give up. I'd take the points and a good coach anyday. (Gibbs is washed many would say. I disagree)

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

I think if Gibbs runs the ball a lot and tries to control the clock and keep brady off the field, which is likely what he will try to do, the game could be close. Washington has no chance obviously, but with this strategy i think they may cover.

for the browns st louis game, does anyone know if stephen jackson is back from injury? I know St.Louis has looked horrible but with Jackson back they are definitely a threat to score points, and the browns d isn't really anything special.

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Jackson should play this week although he wasnt exactly lighting it up before he got hurt. Also they've lost 4 lineman for the year. Rams are a train wreck. Cleveland should have no problem scoring 28 points. So can the Rams muster 24-27?

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How about the Indianapolis at Carolina game? Indy by less than a TD? You think that spread will go up? I have an automatic regression model running on my blog of the point spread and it predicts this to be opportunistic. Why so low?
Indianapolis -6

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NE wins this weekend, but Gibbs keeps Brady off the field as much as he can, and the Skins pass defense is strong enough to hold Brady down a bit. Washington +17.

Specifically, NE 27-17.

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Every week when I look at the spreads I see one game that jumps out at me like the linesmakers got it wrong. And almost always I lose alot.

This year I remember losing alot when Cincy lost to Clevland and if I remember correctly I got owned when KC upset San Deigo.

When I saw the Carolina game I got the same feeling. Indy is undefeated and is simply a well coached and talented team. They just went into Jacksonville and won handily in front of the nation. I myself predicted the line similar to the Giants/Dolphins line. Carolina has a banged up Drew Carr for godsakes.

After research I still feel indy at -6.5 is a great bet. But the fact I love it so much scares me from betting more than 1u.

Hopefully someone can weigh in and tell me why the colts are not giving up more than a touchdown.

This reminds me of last year when I lost all the money I made on Wongs in the Indy/Dallas game when the Colts for +1 and I thought they would win by 10. This feels like BSP pick to me, but I cant help not betting it.

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Jazzy if there is such a thing as a 'sandwich game' in the NFL this is it. Indy played their biggest division rival on the road last week and next week is home to NE. In between is a trip to Carolina.

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Second straight away game and coming off MNF. But yeah, I like the line for the Colts too.

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the line is too close for comfort, don't you think? indi scores higher on turf (which car. has), and less on the road (their strategy on the road is to march the field, speed the game up, protect their defense). indi controls the game, is rarely in danger of a loss, and still only wins by 2. given the imbalance between the leagues, the disparity between the clubs, etc., 6.5 is pretty sharp.

the greek has indy -4 for the half, but -1/2 for the first, third, and fourth quarters. there's value there, i think.

tlt

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

The indy game raised red flags right away. The spread is deceivingly low. Everyone and their mother is betting indy. I think this line will move to 7 and I will begrudgingly bet Carolina.

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[ QUOTE ]
The indy game raised red flags right away. The spread is deceivingly low. Everyone and their mother is betting indy. I think this line will move to 7 and I will begrudgingly bet Carolina.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be more surprised to see it close at 7 than at 6.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

if everyone is hammering indy why the [censored] is it stagnant at 6.5?

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Wagerline shows 82.49% of ATS bets on Indianapolis.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

A spread move from 6.5 to 7 is a HUGE move. Wagerline does show a little over 80% on Indy right now but that doesn't necessarily mean 80% of the money is on Indy. However, I would expect that 80% of the money on Indy is not far off. Predicting precisely where the line will move is hard and I certainly can't do it with any real certainty.

However, let's think for a second what exactly this all means. Vegas moves lines for a couple reasons. Firstly, they may change the line due to new circumstances that were not taken into account in the previous line. Also, they move the lines to balance action in some cases. Potentially, if they feel they can change the line slightly without balancing the action, they may do that to increase their edge. It is still early in the week and it is possible that although a high percentage of bettors are taking Indy, not a lot of money has been bet relative to how much Vegas expects to be on that game by kickoff. In that case, it is not surprising that the line has not moved. However, if the trend continues and the line remains unchanged this gives us some very important information. If a lot of people take one side and the line doesn't change, Vegas is VERY confident in their position and they do not feel the need to balance the action. Vegas believes that they are getting the best of the public. If the consensus doesn't change by kickoff, I will definitely be on a Carolina team that can't seem to win at home.

Ramble ramble...

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

I would also be careful when betting either NE or Indy this week. I know the players and coaches never admit it but they may already be looking ahead to the week 9 match up.

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Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

2-0 for the weekend.
+4.1u

New YTD

13-15-1
-5.95u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

MNF play

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos -3 (-105)
Risking 2.1u to win 2u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

[/ QUOTE ]
I am fortunate I do not have money in that book =). Betonline still had it at +6.5 so I passed on it.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
MNF play

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos -3 (-105)
Risking 2.1u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

An embarrassing performance by the Broncos. I honestly think that DEN was the right side but Shanahan made some terrible coaching decisions.

For example, the last play before the field goal to send the game in overtime. By running the ball with no timeouts the Broncos risked not getting the field goal off in time. If they pass in that spot, they can try for the endzone. An incomplete pass stops the clock and then they can take their time kicking the field goal. It worked out okay but if somebody had false started or the clock had ran out, they would have looked real stupid (which my opinion they arleady looked stupid).

Also, I didn't like the call to rush 3 men on a huge 3rd down in the fourth quarter. How many times do coaches have to get burned on this before they realize that good QB's can complete passes all day if they don't feel any pressure. They did manage to stop them eventually but lost precious time that they could have used in their final drive.

New YTD

13-16-1
-8.05u