JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

CO seems like a solid TAG, 25/17/1.9, haven't seen him get out of line.

SB is 32/22 over 60 hands.

PokerStars $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#FF0000">CO raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#FF0000">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#FF0000">CO caps!</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">CO bets</font>

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

If he's solid TAG, I'd fold. He has a very tight capping range 3-handed ~(TT+,AQs+,AKo), the only logical hands we beat are AQs/TT, and they are probably checking behind.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

I agree with maxter. I'd fold on the river.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Assuming a tight range of TT, AQs, AKo.

There are 12 AK and 16 JJ+ that valuebets

There are 3 TT and 4 AQs.

You get 10.5:1 and need to be good 8.7%. This means he needs to bet TT and AQs with p % probability where p solves

p*7/(p*7 + 28) = 8.7%

Implying p = 2.4/6.4 = 37.5%

If I am doing those calcs correctly I would say close but prolly fold against a tight range.



Now assume a range of 99, AJs, AQo

He is valuebetting 12 AK, 16 JJ+, 2 AJs and 3 99. So as before he needs to bet TT and AQo (there are 3 + 16 = 19 of those) with p prob where p solves

p*19/(p*19 + 33) = 8.7%

p = 2.9/17.4 = 16.7%


One problem about the loose range is that he might check behind AJs and QQ.


Anyhoo. Against a nit its close but prolly a fold. Against a loos'ish capper I'd call


EDIT for the 99 bummer

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

calcs look good oink except that 99 made a set on the turn

my take on this hand is that every hand in villains capping range has SD value, and it is very doubtful that he would turn his weak showdownable hands into bluffs even a small % of the time because 95% of players in these games just don't fold pairs

fold river

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

PF is an easy call? I've been folding these. What is the cold calling range in BB assuming typical ranges?

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
PF is an easy call? I've been folding these. What is the cold calling range in BB assuming typical ranges?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, i just fold in this spot too.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.839% 22.84% 01.00% 3497547 153201.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 51.746% 50.84% 00.91% 7785640 138875.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.415% 23.94% 00.48% 3665513 73362.00 { JTs }

Wider range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.361% 24.18% 01.18% 3478642 169515.17 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 48.082% 47.04% 01.04% 6767162 149324.17 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 26.557% 26.06% 00.50% 3748505 71717.67 { JTs }

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Being sandwiched througout the hand makes it an easy fold preflop.
River is a fold for reasons Yourface stated.

Re: JTs river spot in biggish pot
 

Not an easy call IMO. Put the TAG OTB and its easy.

I still call here.

@ Shane
Those stoves are way way of. TAGs and LAGTAGs in the 5/10 on stars dont defend SB with 99+, AJs+, AQo+.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.429% 30.93% 01.50% 28359229382 1377867864.33 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 38.615% 37.14% 01.48% 34053005853 1357120885.83 { 55+, A6s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 28.956% 27.88% 01.08% 25566032328 986074024.83 { JcTc }


@ Apanage

On the contrary. You have great relative position to protect your hand when you flop good. TAG OTB is folding quite a lot when you face him with 2 bets buying you the button.