Told you I was running bad
 

Villain is std TAG

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $16.70
MP: $173.95
Hero (CO): $143.05
BTN: $65.90
SB: $18.55
BB: $151.75

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BB calls $3.50, MP folds

Turn: ($13.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $40</font>, Hero calls $30

River: ($93.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $50</font>, Hero ??

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

I make a crying call

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

Has he ever made any play even slightly resembling a line like this in the past?

You have to betmore on the flop. This board is WAY too draw heavy for a 1/2 pot bet.

Turn bet is good. Then he check raises. Obviously his line screams of JJ/99/68/8T. I suppose we might be looking at J9 as well, but I don't think most TAGs will want to go to war for 300BB in this situation with J9.

This looks like a fold IMO. I can't come up with a single hand that we beat, while 8T, 99, JJ?, and 68 are ALL very reasonable possibilities.

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

yikes. that is a super strong line by villain. But I dont think you can really fold here, for the first level reason that you have a set and ppl do weird things

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

your getting great odds ..so imo you cant rly fold here .

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

kolo, i think the turn is a fold if this guy hasn't been getting out of line. if there's history then it all changes, but standard TAGs don't bluff raise the turn on wet boards all that often. this may be w/t but i don't know how you can profitably continue without much info.

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

you beat nothing by a tag that plays the flop and turn this way in this hand.

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

It's possible I'm being results oriented here, but it seems like this is deep enough that the idea of protecting your stack rather than your hand might be good.

If he's a standard TAG, what is he going to get a lot of money in here with? Standard TAGs are 3betting PF with QQ+, most likely, and probably being more aggressive on the flop with combination draws. They aren't super likely to be check calling two streets with AJ. So, what hands do you think you're getting value from when you bet the turn? Virtually anything that's going to think about calling if your read is good is not in his range. I guess my point is that I think you can make a strong argument for checking behind on the turn.

Anyway, your only chance, really, seems to be that he is running a rather weird bluff - I doubt he's playing J9 for value this way. That's certainly possible - particularly given your goofy flop bet - but I think it's more likely this is 99 or JJ waiting for a safe turn to pump a lot of money into the pot.

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

Re: Told you I was running bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you can't fold on the river getting 3:1 once you call his turn c/r.