AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

I played this hand couple of days ago, but it keeps bugging me so I'd like to hear some critique.
Standard players at these stakes are loose-passive, but I haven't sat on the table enough to note anything specific about anyone.


PokerStars $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, <font color="#FF0000">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

No question here about calling his raise. But in LPP games should one tend to give credit here to some made hand instead of raising based on the very dry board? Should I make at this point decision to lean towards folding once I dont improve?

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

How to proceed here? Should I fold unimproved already here? If calling, is it with the intention to call most rivers also? If calling, is it with the intention to fold most rivers since LPP is unlikely to bluff 3 barrels?

River: (7.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#FF0000">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn+river cards are definately in his range in case he held overs on the flop. Getting 8-to-1 is this a call with some showdown value to make a note against unknown or fold?

Final Pot: 9.25 BB


Several mistakes here I believe and several spots where different players proceed differently. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

It's hard to know how to help here except to aska few questions that I would be asking myself during this hand.

Preflop why did we raise? On the one hand we have 2 limpers and probably have the best hand but AQo is kind of vulnerable so I guess its OK as a value raise but I don't fall in love with AQ either. On balance preflop raise is OK I think.

Flop. Why are we leading? Not because we improved our hand. The only reason we can lead here is to try to represnt our hand as strong and get villain(s) to fold + the possibility we may hit later in the hand and win the pot. On balance an OK c-bet for me. The raise however changes the picture. What are our reads on this player? None. What do we think a typical player at this level would be holding to raise our c-bet? Should we raise? Why or why not? Should we call. Why or why not? There really is a question about calling the flop raise. If we think the only card Button will raise with is a 4 we can't call here. If we think he raises with a 2 we can. If we think he is bluff raising (very unlikely IMO) that changes the picture considerably. I could defininely fold to the flop raise and not give a care about "metagame"

Turn- We are in worse shape now. Total brick for us but maybe not for villain. I c/f the turn.

River as played. I check/fold.

IMO we put in 2-2.5 bets too many here.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

The only thing you can reasonably hope for is villain going crazy with a deuce or bluffing his busted SD. Neither is at all likely, so the later in the hand you get the worse your calls are. I think even on the flop you're not getting proper odds to call but I'm okay calling for reasons listed in SSHE under loose calls.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

Pf: good.
Flop: good.
Turn: i let it go.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

Preflop is good, as is the flop cbet; Bona, you're over-thinking things.

Once he raises, you're getting almost 10:1 to call; if he's holding a 4 you're effed, but he could also be holding 77-TT, 2x, 53s, A3, A5, all manner of crap that's more likely than a 4. Note that if he's holding A2, you've got 5 outs, not 3.

Same situation exists on the turn, except that there's now a bunch more hands (Tx, with the exception of QT) that you're happy to draw against. Getting just over 6:1 it's thin, but the possibility of draws pushes it to a call.

Once he fires the final barrel on the river, you're not good 1 in 8, let it go. If the K and T on the board were, say, 7 and 9, I'd probably call.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

grunts

I check/fold the turn.

I don't feel I am infront. If we are behind, we need around 7 outs to call, and we just to have that many.

We are probably looking at an overpair to the flop something like TT/99-55, or something like A2, A4, 43, 54, maybe A2 and of course the odd 22.

I can't see him raising any UI OCs on the flop that he wouldn't have raised preflop.

This board is to bleh for us to be ahead or drawing with good odds.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Same situation exists on the turn, except that there's now a bunch more hands (Tx, with the exception of QT) that you're happy to draw against


[/ QUOTE ]

a) What Tx hands does he raise the flop with?
b) Against anything he holds, we have an absolute maximum of 6 outs meaning we need about 6.5:1 to call. We are getting just under that. Add in the chance of reverse domination and that we might be drawing dead, and I think our weighted outs are definatly less than 6.

Put a couple more bets in the pot, and I could see a call being closer.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

River is an easy fold. On the turn, as mentioned, we don't have the odds to draw to our over cards. We need 7:1 and that is assuming we have 6 clean outs, when in reality they are hardly ever clean. In a vacuum, folding is the right decision, but if this was someone you were playing against 3 times a week, you would have to mix up your play in these spots every now and then to avoid being exploited.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

You're right about Tx hands, unless he's a nutbag. otoh, the only hand we're really worried about reverse-dom is acey-deucey.

Edit: you're also discounting 100% the chance that he's on a draw of some sort.

Re: AQ unimproved HU OOP - how far to go?
 

[ QUOTE ]

you're also discounting 100% the chance that he's on a draw of some sort


[/ QUOTE ]

I just think there arn't that many (1?) draws that raise the flop?