Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

600/1200/100. Villain has about 50K, I have 38K. Villain got moved to the table a little while ago, no reads. Villain makes it 3K from the hijack, I raise to 9K on the button with JJ, planning to call a shove.

Villain asks for a chip count from me, then says, "I'm not going to call, I have to decide if I'm going to fold or shove." Minutes go by with him sitting there, then he shoves. I say, "If you have aces, that was quite an impressive performance, sir." I then look at him for a while, he stares back at me, drumming his fingers on the table. He then says, "If you're taking this long to decide, you should muck." A few minutes go by, he then calls the clock on me.

My read: this guy is intentionally throwing off every reverse tell in the book because he has AA, I'm fairly sure I would fold KK here. Agreed?

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

I don't know, in my experience when they start talking it means they don't have AA. People are deathly afraid of losing action on their AA...I think it means he has a truly marginal decision (which may include AK and TT). folding KK would be atrocious. I wouldn't even fold JJ because of his open raise size.

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

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I don't know, in my experience when they start talking it means they don't have AA. People are deathly afraid of losing action on their AA...I think it means he has a truly marginal decision (which may include AK and TT). folding KK would be atrocious. I wouldn't even fold JJ because of his open raise size.

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3K was a fairly common open raise at the table.

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

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folding KK would be atrocious.

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And if you really want to get into soul-reading..the little finger-tapping display, is a comforter to soothe an uneasy feeling.

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

I dont think I could fold KK ever in a spot like this...

QQ I doubt I could fold...JJ I would have to think about it...

You have put 25% of your stack in...you raised with intentions of calling a shove...I call...and if he has AA well good for him and his acting abilities...

As for the tells I think tapping the fingers was inadvertant and therefore weak...

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

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I dont think I could fold KK ever in a spot like this...

QQ I doubt I could fold...JJ I would have to think about it...

You have put 25% of your stack in...you raised with intentions of calling a shove...I call...and if he has AA well good for him and his acting abilities...

As for the tells I think tapping the fingers was inadvertant and therefore weak...

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The finger tapping was 100% deliberate.

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

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The finger tapping was 100% deliberate.

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Cause you were the one shoving and talking and tapping and calling the clock?

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

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600/1200/100. Villain has about 50K, I have 38K. Villain got moved to the table a little while ago, no reads. Villain makes it 3K from the hijack, I raise to 9K on the button with JJ, planning to call a shove.

Villain asks for a chip count from me, then says, "I'm not going to call, I have to decide if I'm going to fold or shove." Minutes go by with him sitting there, then he shoves. I say, "If you have aces, that was quite an impressive performance, sir." I then look at him for a while, he stares back at me, drumming his fingers on the table. He then says, "If you're taking this long to decide, you should muck." A few minutes go by, he then calls the clock on me.

My read: this guy is intentionally throwing off every reverse tell in the book because he has AA, I'm fairly sure I would fold KK here. Agreed?

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This is a big part of the reason I prefer not to speak or engage people during hands, just because I don't want some peripheral BS to screw with my decision...I don't think any of the information you gained with your statement or from his helps clarify the situation, and I'm actually inclined to think, based on all the aspects of the hand that you described, that he could easily have AK or AQs and might want a fold. I'm obviously never [censored] folding KK here...also, if you chose to fold JJ, I hope it wasn't faceup.

Re: Borgata $5K: Every Live Tell There Is In One Hand
 

Bakes,
What about his open raise size is odd? 2.5x, nice simple amount of like chips to grab...

Todd,
Assuming you're right about the BS tells, why wouldn't he do the same thing with KK?
He knows he's heads up, he knows you're not folding KK+ regardless, so he should want action given that.

I think the thing to keep in mind about making super-tight reads like this on relatively unknown players is the error only goes one direction.
In normal situations, top 10% might be a good guess, but sometimes it's 8, sometimes 12, and it evens out.
Here any error in your read makes calling better. (Well, a little error may not help JJ, but you couldn't fold KK here.)
So you need to be really confident to go with a KK+ or AA read, and if the odds are close but not quite there, I'd lean towards calling.

I think a similar problem comes with assuming an opponent is shoving "any two." Not that it can't happen, but it's easy to overuse it.