NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

NL400 Poker Stars
6 handed
Effective stacks are 350
Villain seems kinda donkish... over-values hands, makes strange bluff, etc.

MP limps. Hero raises button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to $18. Villain calls from the SB. BB fold. MP folds.

<font color="blue">Note villain called from the SB. Not that it means much. Villain was runnign somewhere around vpip 27. </font>

FLOP ($46) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain donks flop to $35. Hero raise to $110 <font color="blue"> !? </font> Villain calls.

<font color="blue"> Does anyone like the flop raise? I still don't know how I feel about it, but I think calling is probably best. </font>

TURN ($266): K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain checks. Hero pushes all-in... $222.

<font color="blue"> Who likes taking the free card on the turn? </font>

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

I like calling the flop, unless he's shown he'll donk/fold an awful lot. His read that he overvalues hands also makes me wanna call, because our implied odds are bigger and he's never folding any king to a flop raise. I'd like a flop raise with the NFD, since it usually gives us 3 more outs and he could also 3bai w/ a worse draw.

As played, I think with the extra gutshot outs we picked up, I like a push. We're about a 3:1 dog against his calling range, so he only needs to fold the turn ~15% to make a shove profitable.

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling the flop, unless he's shown he'll donk/fold an awful lot. His read that he overvalues hands also makes me wanna call, because our implied odds are bigger and he's never folding any king to a flop raise. I'd like a flop raise with the NFD, since it usually gives us 3 more outs and he could also 3bai w/ a worse draw.

As played, I think with the extra gutshot outs we picked up, I like a push. We're about a 3:1 dog against his calling range, so he only needs to fold the turn ~15% to make a shove profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, we have the same thoughts on the flop. At the same time, he played such weird lines like donking the flop alot that I thought there was a decent chance that it was an underpair that would fold. However, I'm still like &gt; 50% against an underpair so why should I even try and push it. If he calls my raise, I'm surely less than 50%. And the worst part of the raise is that I should probably call a push from him because I'll be getting 2-1. So I stuck alot of money in the pot when I'm almost surely way behind...raising sucks.

Do you mind showing your math for how if he folds 15% of the time that it's profitable?

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

Assuming we are 3:1 dog (you can mess around with what you think is calling range is):

.85(488*.25)+.85(-222*.75) = -$37.50
.15*266 = $40

$40 - $37.50 = $2.50

It's slightly +EV if he folds 15% of the time. 20% is closer to a +5BB decision.

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

bump

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

I take the free card. He has AK-KJ here like always.

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

I just call the flop most of the time. You can take away the pot from him that way to.

As played, I'd just take your free card. I doubt he's folding a king anymore.

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

Profitable doesn't mean most profitable. We win roughly .25 * 260 = 65, and sometimes win .25 * 500 = 125. Say that he pays off on spade river 1/2 the time, then we make about $63 in the long run. So FE has to be much higher than 20% for betting to be better.

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

Yeah, Paul and I kinda talked about this over aim. How often does he have to fold to make pushing more profitable?

Re: NL400 -- Flush draw -- Turn action -- standard
 

[ QUOTE ]
Profitable doesn't mean most profitable. We win roughly .25 * 260 = 65, and sometimes win .25 * 500 = 125. Say that he pays off on spade river 1/2 the time, then we make about $63 in the long run. So FE has to be much higher than 20% for betting to be better.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, this was my point. assuming that all 12 of our outs are clean and we don't have any implied odds, we still need Villain to fold close to 33% for pushing to be more profitable THAN checking.

The question is will he fold KQ 33% of the time?

edited for math.