Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

The most recent poll in South Carolina has Mitt Romney moving ahead of the pack.

Romney: 29%
Giuliani: 23
McCain: 13
Undecided: 12
Thompson: 10
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 4

If Romney can genuinely appeal to primary voters in South Carolina, and the South in general, I think he's the front runner to win the Republican nomination.

Romney has, far and away, run the best campaign to dislodge Giuliani from the #1 spot. He's winning in Iowa by double-digits (though Huckabee is surging). He's got just under a double-digit lead in New Hampshire. He's been winning in some Nevada polls but those have been very volatile. Among the early states, he seems to be doing meekly (a distant 3rd) only in Florida. But, Florida is the last of the early state voting.

It sometimes seems that only Romney is using the obvious tried and true strategy of winning in Iowa and New Hampshire and then using those victories to build a larger base. Giuliani seems to think he can be a national candidate without winning early. Thompson is floundering with some Southern strategy that won't get started until nearly a month after the earliest states vote. McCain gets solid national numbers but doesn't seem to be doing good in any specific state. Huckabee is just a longshot who's appealing to some base votes. Paul, of course, wins only the internet voting delegates.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

What about Colbert?

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Colbert isn't gettin much of the republican vote.

He might be able to get like 4% of the democratic vote though.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Who would be worse, Romney or Giuliani? Although I guess it doesn't matter too much since neither will beat Hilary.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

I think Romney would be less bad for America.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

I hope you keep posting on this polling data and giving analysis Dynasty, last election it was great to have your sane input to counterbalance the grotesque silliness of posters like myself. By the way, congrats on the Red Sox Sweeping the WS.

The percentages given usually also have an associated margin of error that is useful to see, though this being so early it may not matter at this stage.


McCain's face is too fat and his voice is too flat and he mouths too much swill, so my take is that he will just treadmill in place until he self-destructs.

I have nothing more subsantial to add except that voting Republican is what the smart people do.

-Zeno

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Romney/Huckabee looking more and more likely.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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I think Romney would be less bad for America.

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Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Romey can run a business, not sure about a country though.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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Romey can run a business, not sure about a country though.

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What does that mean?

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

I think Huckabee is taking Iowa. Yep, I said it.

Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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Romney: 29%
Giuliani: 23
McCain: 13
Undecided: 12
Thompson: 10
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 4


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My fav Repub candidate Duncan Hunter is not going to happen so my picks are between Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson. I can't stand that phoney bribe taking hypocrite John McCain nor that faux conservative Huckabee. I love Ron Paul on domestic issues but he sucks on foreign policy.

I'm not sure I can trust Romney or Giuliani to be a conservative but between the two I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home and give the white house to that socialist nitwit Hillary. I want to like Fred Thompson but he voted for the unconstiutional McCain-Feingold so that alone should disqualify him from office.... As for Rudy, I thought he abused his power as a federal prosecutor in the Milken case threatening indict Milken's brother to get Michael Milken to take a plea deal. Rudy is no civil libertarian and he pushed the law to its breaking point to coerce Michael Milken in taking a plea deal.... Milken also push the laws to the edges but I would argue he stayed on the right side of the law during his "Junk Bond King" days. I can't say the same thing about Rudy.... Rudy and Michael Milken have much in common except Rudy was better able to reinvent himself when he became mayor of New York..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milken
"The government's tactics during the investigation have been much criticized. At the behest of Attorney General Dick Thornburgh, Giuliani threatened to indict Milken's brother, Lowell (a lawyer for Drexel) for racketeering when Milken initially balked at pleading guilty. As part of the deal, the case against Lowell was dropped. Federal investigators also questioned some of Milken's relatives--including his aging father--about their investments."

I don't know who is the lesser of three evils.... Rudy will CRUSH Hillary heads-up. Thompson will also beat Hillary heads-up. I'm not so sure about Romney. One thing is certain, there are no Reagans in this line-up.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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I have nothing more subsantial to add except that voting Republican is what the smart people do.

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And so do a large bloc of people who are just terrified that one of their 6 boys might suck cock someday if society doesn't sufficiently persecute homosexuals.

What's your point?

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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I think Huckabee is taking Iowa. Yep, I said it.

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Huckabee is a [censored] idiot who doesn't even accept evolutionary theory. There is no way in hell the Republican Party supports him unless they want to get RAPED in the general election.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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I have nothing more subsantial to add except that voting Republican is what the smart people do.

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And so do a large bloc of people who are just terrified that one of their 6 boys might suck cock someday if society doesn't sufficiently persecute homosexuals.

What's your point?

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That you lack a sense of humor.

-Zeno

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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I have nothing more subsantial to add except that voting Republican is what the smart people do.

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And so do a large bloc of people who are just terrified that one of their 6 boys might suck cock someday if society doesn't sufficiently persecute homosexuals.

What's your point?

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That you lack a sense of humor.

-Zeno

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Lol. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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What's your point?

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That you lack a sense of humor.

-Zeno

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Lol. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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nice counter argument (imo!)

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

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My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

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I have to say that I am completely unimpressed with the Republican lineup in general, but if you hold my feet to the fire I'd probably vote Romney. I vote by mail since I am in the military and my home of record is in Florida. Actually, given how close Florida has been the last few elections, I guess I will have to vote.

Amusing sidenote: I'm still a registered Democrat in Florida! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Thx for the rigged mainstream media poll update. This means Pauls' real numbers are probably around 15%.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

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I have to say that I am completely unimpressed with the Republican lineup in general, but if you hold my feet to the fire I'd probably vote Romney.

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I REALLY don't understand this at all. Have you looked at his platform?

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c1...g/matrix-1.jpg

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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I REALLY don't understand this at all. Have you looked at his platform?

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c1...g/matrix-1.jpg

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Red, green, and black. And I thought I was confused regarding red and blue.

Anyway, post a color key please? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Dynasty,

Just skimmed your last 200 posts and didn't find much on politics. Are you planning any big prediction posts or are you going to wimp out and quit with the legacy of a perfect electoral prediction post from 2004?

~ Rick

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

Green means Borodog likes, Red means Borodog hates.

Anyways, here is some stuff out of Romney's campaign:

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Romney calls for all Americans to have (health care) coverage without a government mandate, placing the responsibility on the individual.

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Oh, this is fine. Read on:

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He would mandate insurance for individuals and employers, set minimum coverage requirements, subsidize coverage for low-income Americans and levy fines for noncompliance.

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WTF?!? This is in one paragraph! *head asplode*

Romney on Energy:

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Romney proposes investment in alternative energy, especially biodiesel, ethanol and nuclear power, incentives for oil companies to build and modernize refinieries and increased drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and environmentally sensitive areas of the outer continental shelf.

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Sounds like a winner to me...

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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I REALLY don't understand this at all. Have you looked at his platform?

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c1...g/matrix-1.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Red, green, and black. And I thought I was confused regarding red and blue.

Anyway, post a color key please? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

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Rick,

Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to say that I am completely unimpressed with the Republican lineup in general, but if you hold my feet to the fire I'd probably vote Romney.

[/ QUOTE ]

I REALLY don't understand this at all. Have you looked at his platform?

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c1...g/matrix-1.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Im surprised you went to that much trouble to analyze a process you dont agree with. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] That said, what survey were you referring to? Also, to be honest, I've only some superficial research at this point into the candidates, thats how completely apathetic I am about this election at this point.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I REALLY don't understand this at all. Have you looked at his platform?

http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c1...g/matrix-1.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Red, green, and black. And I thought I was confused regarding red and blue.

Anyway, post a color key please? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

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Rick,

Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who's the guy who's all green? All the white guys look alike.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to say that I am completely unimpressed with the Republican lineup in general, but if you hold my feet to the fire I'd probably vote Romney. I vote by mail since I am in the military and my home of record is in Florida. Actually, given how close Florida has been the last few elections, I guess I will have to vote.

Amusing sidenote: I'm still a registered Democrat in Florida! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

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How in the world does a person go from registering as a Democrat to "Eh i guess ill vote for Romney"?

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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Who's the guy who's all green? All the white guys look alike.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ron Paul

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
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... I'm leaning towards Romney although I'm worried about his mormanism causing some Repubs to stay at home

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is Romney will lower turnout in very red evangelical Christian states from Nebraska to North Dakota along with most states in the South but the remaining voters won't vote for Hillary or Obama anyway. So these electoral votes go to Romney anyway.

~ Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to say that I am completely unimpressed with the Republican lineup in general, but if you hold my feet to the fire I'd probably vote Romney. I vote by mail since I am in the military and my home of record is in Florida. Actually, given how close Florida has been the last few elections, I guess I will have to vote.

Amusing sidenote: I'm still a registered Democrat in Florida! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

How in the world does a person go from registering as a Democrat to "Eh i guess ill vote for Romney"?

[/ QUOTE ]

People change?

Quick history: Mostly raised by my mother, a liberal sort. Bought into the whole liberal worldview. Went to the Naval Academy and had a very conservative roommate. We debate, he gradually wins me over. For a while I didnt progress much beyond the typical talking head rhetoric. Finally I started trying to really decide what I believed. Found some serious works on conservative theory. I now consider myself a conservative in the Burkean sense (read pretty much anything by Russell Kirk to get a sense of my worldview). Unfortunately, very few Republicans fit this mold, but they are a far sight closer than just about any Democrat.

And during all this, I never bothered to change my party affiliation. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

vr,

It was a survey linked in one of these threads to CNN or MSNBC or somewhere.

Maybe someone else remebers.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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Who's the guy who's all green? All the white guys look alike.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ron Paul

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in before "ZOMG HE'S A DOCTOR DIDN'T YOU HEAR?"

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. From what I gather you like the guy that has absolutely no chance (unless the electorate is restricted to people who post on the Internet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~ Rick

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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Thx for the rigged mainstream media poll update. This means Pauls' real numbers are probably around 15%.

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Since Paul has no hope, I suppose his supporters might as well keep on being delusional. At least it will give you a little joy.

The first poll showing Romney catching up in South Carolina have been matched by later polls.

Romney seems to be making progress into the upper teens in Florida. However, Giuliani's lead is still well into the double-digits there.

Romney's double-digit lead over Giuliani in New Hampshire and over Huckabee in Iowa seem to be holding.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. From what I gather you like the guy that has absolutely no chance (unless the electorate is restricted to people who post on the Internet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~ Rick

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Will you still believe he has no chance if he's the leading fundraiser in quarter four on the Republican side? He's certainly going to raise more than any Republican candidate did in quarter three.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. From what I gather you like the guy that has absolutely no chance (unless the electorate is restricted to people who post on the Internet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~ Rick

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Will you still believe he has no chance if he's the leading fundraiser in quarter four on the Republican side? He's certainly going to raise more than any Republican candidate did in quarter three.

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Despite the rants on 2+2 the only way raising more money gives him a chance is if he raises about 10k per voter and buys the votes.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

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Despite the rants on 2+2 the only way raising more money gives him a chance is if he raises about 10k per voter and buys the votes.

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Sorry Copernicus, turnout is what's gonna be RPs friend. Every single person who said they favor him is gonna vote for him and normal turnout in a primary is 5%-15%ish.

Re: Yuck.....Still Undecided
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those are my personal assessments of agreement or disagreement with the given candidate's positions (or at least the position attributed to them on the survey) on the given issue. Bright green = strongly agree, bright red = strongly disagree, and black = indifferent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. From what I gather you like the guy that has absolutely no chance (unless the electorate is restricted to people who post on the Internet). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~ Rick

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Will you still believe he has no chance if he's the leading fundraiser in quarter four on the Republican side? He's certainly going to raise more than any Republican candidate did in quarter three.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite the rants on 2+2 the only way raising more money gives him a chance is if he raises about 10k per voter and buys the votes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Copernicus,

The story is different now because the Internet solved a coordination problem amongst libertarians, who are different from other political constituencies in that are not easily segregated (and thus controlled) by geography. As a pragmatic Paul supporter, I think it's very unlikely he'll get the nomination. There are still far too many ordinary people support their pet political projects and aren't actually libertarians - I think it's laughable to suggest Paul will ever enjoy true popular support. Libertarianism in general isn't a stable evolutionary political strategy. But on the national stage Ron Paul's candidacy can give libertarianism the kind of political heft like that enjoyed by the Miami Cuban ex-patriates in Floridian politics, for example. The ardent supporters, kooks, tax-protestors, New Racialists, whatever, aren't going away because geographic gerrymandering isn't as effective in this digital age and there are big single issues each is interested in that requires the rolling back of government power.

My aim as a RP supporter is to destroy the modern Republican party in its current incarnation. I've offered my thoughts on realignment and alliance between the "technology" Democrats and the leaner Republican party who deals with immigrants and other new demographics. I think it's a step in the right direction.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

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Thx for the rigged mainstream media poll update. This means Pauls' real numbers are probably around 15%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since Paul has no hope, I suppose his supporters might as well keep on being delusional. At least it will give you a little joy.

The first poll showing Romney catching up in South Carolina have been matched by later polls.

Romney seems to be making progress into the upper teens in Florida. However, Giuliani's lead is still well into the double-digits there.

Romney's double-digit lead over Giuliani in New Hampshire and over Huckabee in Iowa seem to be holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, read the questions of the polls. They're all surveys of "likely republican voters." RPs supporters are not likely republican voters. They're independents, libertarians, and people who've never voted before. These polls are designed to only survey the "base" of each major party.

The anti-Paul haters such as yourself are the only delusional ones.

Re: Romney Moving Ahead in South Carolina Too?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Thx for the rigged mainstream media poll update. This means Pauls' real numbers are probably around 15%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since Paul has no hope, I suppose his supporters might as well keep on being delusional. At least it will give you a little joy.

The first poll showing Romney catching up in South Carolina have been matched by later polls.

Romney seems to be making progress into the upper teens in Florida. However, Giuliani's lead is still well into the double-digits there.

Romney's double-digit lead over Giuliani in New Hampshire and over Huckabee in Iowa seem to be holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, read the questions of the polls. They're all surveys of "likely republican voters." RPs supporters are not likely republican voters. They're independents, libertarians, and people who've never voted before. These polls are designed to only survey the "base" of each major party.

The anti-Paul haters such as yourself are the only delusional ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Paul's support is under measured by polling techniques. I do think his support is more likely to vote. Not in a Lew Rockwell, 5% will win everything kind of way, but if Giuliani is polling at 24% and Paul is polling at 16%, Paul is going to win pretty much every time.