Look into my oppoenants soul and tell me what he holds
 

Can my opponent have anything other than flush?

This was a hand that I really thought nothing about untill I discussed it w/another 2p2er. He had some interesting thoughts on it and I'm starting to be inclined to agree. Folding this river is not something I would do routinely, just against this specific player or type of player, in this particular hand.

My opponent is a multitabling TAG 27/21 and plays pretty strait foward. I haven't noticed anything spectacular outta him or anything odd. He might even be on of you guys.

Villain open raises in sb, I defend my bb w/JTo

Flop Q89 2 diamonds

Villain bets, I call

Turn offsuit brick

Villain bets, I raise, villain calls

River 6d

I bet villain c/r's I yell and scream at the computer and call like the showdown monkey I am.

So read villains hand. What can he possibly have aside from a flush? No other hand makes sense

Flush - makes perfect sense and is comletely sensible with his play.

1 pair - Never c/r's here b/c he's gotta be afraid of a number of things

2 pair - he's gotta be scared from the turn raise and that river is the worst card for him to c/r

Set - Set would def 3 bet the turn or check call the river. No reason for him to c/r the river w/a set, unless its 66. But 66 has no business calling the turn raise and is unlikely to have made it to the river against this guy

Strait - If he's got JT he'd prolly 3bet the turn. If he doesn't c/r the turn, only explanation is for him to c/r a non diamond board. When the diamond hits, isn't it very unlikely he c/r's here? He'd def c/c.

Air - This is the only hand that makes sense for villain to hold that I beat. Do we think he has AJ or some missed draw often enough to bluff c/r the river? Seems like a bad spot to try it in a protected pot.

So what does he have? Can I fold this river

Re: Look into my oppoenants soul and tell me what he holds
 

7T or 57 aren't in there at all? I agree on all other hands evaluation.

Re: Look into my oppoenants soul and tell me what he holds
 

If he's reasonable there are a lot of hands he can have that you beat such as T7 and lots of 2 pair or set hands that didn't want to blow you off what could very well be a moderate holding on the turn. c/r'ing a scare card river with a pretty good hand is a good play. It's not like he really has to fear you having the flush since this is a HU pot the whole way.

I'm not saying you're ahead here more than 50% after the c/r, but still way more than in enough of the time to call in my experience.

-WT

Re: Look into my oppoenants soul and tell me what he holds
 

[ QUOTE ]
7T or 57 aren't in there at all? I agree on all other hands evaluation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, T7 maybe but he did raise pf so I tend to down play 57. Also lets not forget calling my turn raise w/57 is pretty bad and this guys is fairly solid

Re: Look into my oppoenants soul and tell me what he holds
 

The guy is probably raising 57s preflop, but he'd have to have the flush draw to call the turn.

1 small change
 

While looking over the HH, I noticed that I missed a detail or 2. So the pf action went MP limper, sb completed, and I checked.

Flop 89Q, sb bets, I call, MP folds.

Rest of hand is the same.

Re: 1 small change
 

Oh then i take 57 out of his range, but keep T7 in there for sure.

Re: 1 small change
 

I think you have to call here, but i am also just a sd monkey.
Btw do you consider 27/21 to be tight?

Re: 1 small change
 

If calling this c/r here makes me a showdown monkey then i'm [censored] king kong

Re: 1 small change
 

[ QUOTE ]
If calling this c/r here makes me a showdown monkey then i'm [censored] king kong

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, T7, post over.