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November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Well, it looks like there are other threads like this so I guess Ill make my first thread a College Basketball one. Lets post some winning plays and make some money together.
<font color="red">Tuesday November 27th</font> Bankroll: $2100 Duke Blue Devils -8(-110) $77 to win $70 UNLV Runnin' Rebels +4.5(-110) $77 to win $70 Texas El Paso Miners -6.5(-110) $77 to win $70 Risk: $231 (11% Of Bankroll) Return: $210 (10% Of Bankroll) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">Tuesday November 27th</font> Bankroll: $2100 Duke Blue Devils -8(-110) $77 to win $70 UNLV Runnin' Rebels +4.5(-110) $77 to win $70 Texas El Paso Miners -6.5(-110) $77 to win $70 [/ QUOTE ] Duke -8 UNLV +4.5 UTEP -7(+489) $38.5 to win $185.65 Risk: $269.5 (12.8% Of Bankroll) Return: $395.65 (18.8% Of Bankroll) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
UTEP sucks out at the FT line. Nice start, throw in some thoughts about why you are making the picks for your next ones.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Mizzou +5 looks nice for wed.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
<font color="red">Tuesday November 27th Results:</font>
4-0 +$395.65 18.8% Bankroll Increase. Final Bankroll: $2495.65 |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
UTEP sucks out at the FT line. Nice start, throw in some thoughts about why you are making the picks for your next ones or no one will really care, use a blog if you just want a public record of your picks. [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
I've cleaned up the last 2 nights with Davidson as a road dog vs App. State and last night with road favorite Bowling Green over Furman. I've been busy at work and haven't done write-ups but I think I have another winner tonight.
Take Richmond (-2)---hurry and get it at -2, as a home favorite vs William and Mary. This, like my play last night vs Furman has more to do with how bad William and Mary is than how good Richmond is. William and Mary enters the contest 1-4 overall. Their only win is over Houston, which sounds somewhat impressive for W&M since the Cougars are a decent team under Tom Penders. But wait...it's not the Conference USA Houston Cougars...it's Houston Baptist, as in the non division 1 Houston Baptist Huskies who sport a sexy 0-5 record. William and Mary beat this powerhouse by only nine at home. What is even more alarming about that victory is the fact that they trailed at halftime to a non division 1 school on their home floor. On the other side Richmond is coming off a tough road loss to Marist. Marist is likely better than most of the teams, if not all that William and Mary has faced. Consider Marist lost by six points to Houston, but it was indeed the 6-1 Cougars of the Conference USA, not your lovable 0-5 Huskies. Richmond tensed up a bit against Marist, as they at one point held a 14 point lead. It was a road game and Richmond was obviously affected by playing in Poughkeepsie and let the crowd get to them as they faded down the stretch. Marist is a tough team, though, and this ball game vs William and Mary is being played in the friendly confines of the Robins Center. That Marist game doesn't stand a chance in impressive performances for the Spiders though. Take this one, an 80-63 team to John Calipari's Memphis Tigers. The Tigers might be the best team in the country with loads of talent in Anderson, Rose, Dorsey, and about 25 All Americans. So whats so impressive about losing by 17 to Memphis? The Spiders led 40-39 at halftime and had Calipari and his boys sweating. Richmond can play. Take Richmond tonight as they take down the Tribe. Richmond 68 William and Mary 55 |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Going to play on Richmond. Ill look around the internet and bring a good consensus to the board about an hour before the first tip.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
I have a couple issues with the Richmond/W&M game, as a follower of hoops in the Commonwealth.
1- Richmond lost at home to Norfolk State. Norfolk State is probably one of the 20 worst teams in Division 1. 2- This is a pretty big rivalry game, tames are in the same conference for football, UofR was formally in the CAA and the schools are just an hour apart. 3- Richmond's methodical style tends to keep teams in the game. This game is, IMO, a toss up. I don't mind the Richmond bet, they should be able to win, but I don't believe it is as clear cut as you make it seem and it is a game I am not touching. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
You realize how bad William and Mary is, right? I mean the Tribe have one win which they struggled against an 0-5 non Division 1 school.
At least Richmond put up fights against Marist and the best team in the country. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Just some counter points from a guy who very closely follows basketball in Virginia and the CAA. W&M is definitely not good, but Richmond is young and wildly inconsistent. In addition, I think that UofR is able to stay in some of these games because of their unorthodox style. W&M plays them regularly and should be prepared for this. Alex Smith is probably not playing for William and Mary again, so this is a benefit to UofR.
That said, W&M will be way up for this game and the Spiders will not have much of a home court advantage. This is not a slam dunk at all in my opinion, could easily go either way. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Thanks for both sides of the argument, guys.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Tonight I like:
UNC -5.5 UNC owned OSU last year in the Smith Center. And that was one of the best OSU teams of all time. This year UNC returns everybody except Reyshawn Terry, Brandan Wright and Wes Miller. OSU practically lost their whole team outside of one player. UNC loves to run the ball and OSU likes to push it at times too. I think ultimately OSU will get carried away at times at playing UNC's game and will wear down at about the 10 min mark of the second half because they don't have the depth that UNC has, or the starters to match UNC to begin with. This is the same OSU team that lost to a 1-AA school at an exhibition. I'm a UNC fan so a lot of this is my knowledge of my team and our style vs how I know OSU likes to play, but I love the spread they've given this game. Also like NCST +9. Wolfpack are playing some good ball under Sidney Lowe. They run a real slowed down offense. Unless Nietzel and company starts lighting it up from beyond the arc I like NCST to cover in this game. Nobody has blown them out all year and I don't expect MSU to tonight. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Maryland -2 v Illinois bet 2.16u to win 2u
3-2 ytd up 2.22units |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Everyone and their mother is on UNC tonight
It's a chalk fiesta |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone and their mother is on UNC tonight It's a chalk fiesta [/ QUOTE ] yeah...I placed a decent sized wager on Duke yesterday and I felt worse and worse as the day went on as everyone and their mom in the sportsbooks were on the Duke. Nothing worse than hearing every Vegas loser loves your pick of the day. Oh well, sometimes they are right. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Opening totals 11/28:
2 units: u143-110 (WESTERN MICH vrs VALPARAISO) u139½-110 (SETON HALL vrs PRINCETON) o150½-110 (CS NORTHRIDGE vrs CLEVELAND ST) 1 unit: u125½-110 (DAYTON vrs MIAMI OHIO) o147-110 (MISSOURI vrs ARKANSAS) o139½-110 (BRADLEY vrs LOYOLA CHICAGO) u150-110 (ALABAMA vrs TEXAS A&M) o135-110 (SAN DIEGO ST vrs LOYOLA MARYMOUNT) o140-110 (CALIFORNIA vrs NEVADA) u138-110 (JAMES MADISON vrs EASTERN KENTUCKY) Note: the Cleve St/CSNU should only be 1 unit by my system, but I put two units by mistake. It opened at 148.5, which would have been a 2 unit play and when the line changed, I didn't want to miss my window so I didn't go back and change the amount to 1 unit. The openenrs are so frustrating at Bookmaker. They never come out at the same time and they move so fast you inevitably miss some good numbers, and when you place a bet, you have to navigate back to the right page to catch the next one. Very stressful. My YTD record: Game totals: 46-32 + 17.5u Sides and halftimes: 3-7 -5.8u [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Pretty much in line with the way it went last year. The writing is on the wall to give up with everything but game totals, and the opening totals are the much better subset of those. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
They should love UNC tonight. I honestly feel by the end of the game UNC will win by about 9 pts. OSU is not great. The Syracuse win did not impress me at all. That was a team that was just as young as OSU. UNC is a Junior and Sophomore led team. The Juniors have been thrust into the fire from day one so they have more experience than their age level would suggest. OSU is too young and lacks the depth to compete with UNC.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Georgetown -8
Michigan State -9 Boston College +3 Syracuse -7.5 Texas A & M -13 1u each. YTD 9-6-1 +2.4u |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
<font color="red">Wednesday November 28th:</font>
4-0 +$395.65 18.8% Bankroll Increase. Bankroll: $2495.65 Richmond Spiders -2.5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Wright State Raiders -6 (-110) $99 to win $90 North Carolina Tarheels -4.5 (-110) $99 to win $90 St. Louis Billikens +5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Phoenix Suns -5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Utah Jazz -2 (1Q) (-105) $105 to win $100 Orlando Magic -2.5 (1Q) (-110) $110 to win $100 Risk: $710 (27.8% (9%) Of Bankroll) Return: $650 (25.4% Of Bankroll) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">Wednesday November 28th:</font> 4-0 +$395.65 18.8% Bankroll Increase. Bankroll: $2495.65 Richmond Spiders -2.5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Wright State Raiders -6 (-110) $99 to win $90 North Carolina Tarheels -4.5 (-110) $99 to win $90 St. Louis Billikens +5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Phoenix Suns -5 (-110) $99 to win $90 Utah Jazz -2 (1Q) (-105) $105 to win $100 Orlando Magic -2.5 (1Q) (-110) $110 to win $100 [/ QUOTE ] Wright St -3.5, Gerogetown -340, Richmond -1, St. Louis +8 $35 to win $179.25 Risk: $745 (29.1% (10.9%) Of Bankroll) Return: $829.25 (32.4% Of Bankroll) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
GEORGETOWN -8-110 1u
WRIGHT ST -6-110 1u NC WILMINGTON -7½-110 1u BRADLEY -5-110 1u MARYLAND -2½-110 1u RICHMOND -3½-110 1u RHODE ISLAND -11-110 1u PORTLAND U -1-110 1u |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Adding...
1 unit: o121-110 (GEORGETOWN vrs OLD DOMINION) u141½-110 (NORTHEASTERN vrs RHODE ISLAND) o161-110 (PEPPERDINE vrs NORTHERN ARI) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
I unloaded at -3, but forgot to post so am down for 2u at -5.5. At least I got the move right...
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
new to non march madness ncaab betting
tail at own risk mass +7.5 western mich +4 |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
For those liking Maryland, line dropped from -2.5 to -1 (at WSEX) in roughly the time it took me to try to get +2.5 (moved to 2), 2 (moved to 1.5), 1.5 (moved to 1). Maybe WSEX just hates me.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
speaking of WSEX, if you are tracking late line moves, always check BOTH their live betting and their regular lines. I have been able to middle WSEX against themselves more than once.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Adding...
1 unit: North Carolina vs. Ohio State Over 151 (-105) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Texas A&M Aggies -11
$99 to win $90 UCLA Bruins -22.5 $99 to win $90 North Carolina Tar Heels -5 $99 to win $90 UNC -5, UCLA -22.5, Texas A&M -11.5 $83 to win $458 |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
tOSU +6 -105
[x] tOSU grad student [x] action junkie bet [x] Bodog rogue line [x] home dog/public fade [x] probably rigged |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[x] "notre dame principle" applies to game (when everyone on 2+2 is going one way, it's fade time baby)
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Adding...
1 unit: George Washington vs. UCLA Under 133 (-105) |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
[x] "notre dame principle" applies to game (when everyone on 2+2 is going one way, it's fade time baby) [/ QUOTE ] [x] Underdog <> Value [x] SB 2p2 cbb experts are better than cfb 'experts' |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
For those liking Maryland, line dropped from -2.5 to -1 (at WSEX) in roughly the time it took me to try to get +2.5 (moved to 2), 2 (moved to 1.5), 1.5 (moved to 1). Maybe WSEX just licks my balls for me. [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [x] "notre dame principle" applies to game (when everyone on 2+2 is going one way, it's fade time baby) [/ QUOTE ] [x] Underdog <> Value [x] SB 2p2 cbb experts are better than cfb 'experts' [/ QUOTE ] [x] hedged at halftime because OSU got all the calls in 1h |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
god those [x]s are gay.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
[x] CardSharp is Right!!
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
Assuming I lose the UCLA game, my day ends at 7-8 -0.8 units. Could have been worse.
I went 1-4 in games I added. These added games are, not surprisingly, bringing my record down in a big way. (The games I add are games that aren't a play when they open, but become a play after the line movement. Thus, I am betting against the move which is mostly a bad idea.) The only question will become, should I stop betting the games altogether, or just fade my own numbers and bet with the line move. I'll have to go back and come up with the stats at some point. |
Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
my day went reasonably well. Added a live bet (1u) on PortSt cuz I need more green in my wallet and who wants to go to the ATM? Also added a unit on UCLA -10.5 for the 2nd half after watching the Colonials work their way into 1st half foul trouble and excessive run good to be down only 9 at the half. Up 1.8u. 5-3, and then lose .2u on the Bama longshot ML.
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Re: November 27th - December 3rd NCAA Hoops Thread!
curious to see what some people think about Gonzaga +1 @ St. Josephs, and KState +2 vs. Oregon
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