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-   -   Weird Bluff 25/50 (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=513162)

ike 10-01-2007 01:57 PM

Weird Bluff 25/50
 
UTG raiser is a bad lag. Flop bettor is samh, a relatively tight, relatively straightforward but still very good regular.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $25/$50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $5,347.00
BB: $5,000.00
UTG: $5,097.00
Hero (UTG+1): $5,222.00
MP1: $3,326.00
MP2: $20,758.70
MP3: $500.00
CO: $12,785.95
BTN: $3,213.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $200.00</font>, Hero calls $200.00, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $200.00, 5 folds

Flop: ($675) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $400.00</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1,400.00</font>, MP2 folds

Pot Size: $2,475.00 ($3 Rake)

LAgambol 10-01-2007 02:25 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
i would flat call with the QQs less than 50% of the time, especially considering how bad the UTG raiser is. i would re raise larger on the flop, i like the check raise line with this board on the turn.

DJ Sensei 10-01-2007 03:29 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
I think you're ahead here a ton, so unless he's folding lots of better hands to a c/r (unlikely?), or you're particularly concerned with giving him a free turn (why?), c/c might work just as well. of course you're going to face tough spots after doing that, but if you're confident that you can read sam's responses, then go for it.

Stinger88 10-01-2007 03:38 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
I kinda like it, I think he can def fold some aces here, especially w/o a spade

Ship Ship McGipp 10-01-2007 03:47 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
i do not like this, i do not know what you are representing

10-01-2007 04:18 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you're ahead here a ton, so unless he's folding lots of better hands to a c/r (unlikely?), or you're particularly concerned with giving him a free turn (why?), c/c might work just as well. of course you're going to face tough spots after doing that, but if you're confident that you can read sam's responses, then go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with this. In any case, your spot after c/c'ing the turn is no less worse than your spot when he calls your small CR.

KRANTZ 10-01-2007 04:20 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
[ QUOTE ]
I kinda like it, I think he can def fold some aces here, especially w/o a spade

[/ QUOTE ]

yah it's samh!

ZeeJustin 10-01-2007 06:44 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
I like it, but I don't like calling it a bluff. You are much &gt; 50% vs his range IMO.

ike 10-01-2007 06:53 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like it, but I don't like calling it a bluff. You are much &gt; 50% vs his range IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

its certainly not a valuebet, he's never calling with JJ. what is it?

jlocdog 10-01-2007 07:02 PM

Re: Weird Bluff 25/50
 
Its a valuebet because you are ahead &gt;50%. Just because you may have a negative expectation if the hand continues, does not affect the reason behind the bet on that street at that time. The value lies in the pot won with this bet.


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