NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
 

Villain is 12/10 over ~40 hands. Over this small sample his flop AF is 0.3 and his turn AF is oo.
We haven't been involved together a lot, only hand that happened between us was him 3betting my LP raise then folding to my shove. He sees me as a 20/18/4 TAG, I haven't done anything crazy like this recently.
After his turn bet I thought there was a good chance his range contained a lot of marginal hands / draws he would not be willing to commit his stack with, and I had (a few) outs if he called me.

Thoughts ?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $26.50
BTN: $52.45
SB: $74.20
BB: $50.45
UTG: $68.55
Hero (MP): $62.90

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($6.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($16.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $11.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $55.40 and is All-In</font>

Re: NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
 

I like this move, but the only problem is that with stats of 12/10, most of his calling range PF is pocket pairs and SC's, both of which(if they didn't already beat an overpair on the flop[what you are repping]) got there on the turn, including two pairs, straights etc. The other problem with this line is that I see people calling all the time here with a pair + a straight draw because they think that even if they aren't good they have a draw.

Ultimately, this has to work way too often for this to be profitable.

Sidenote: against something with nitty-ish stats, I tend to put them mostly on PP who call in position, so I tend to c/f a lot of flops like this because they either float or call you down with marginal holdings.

Re: NL50 I c/r all-in with a gutshot
 

Meh I don't like it. I think you're only folding out 44/33 and MAYBE 55 but he just hit an open-ender. Then again, has he seen you take this line w/AA-JJ before?